Friday, August 3, 2018

The US dollar narrative - a point


The idea recently has been that the USD is appreciating because Trump is going to fight a trade war (hegemonic mercantilism supports a currency) and reduce his trade deficit. More US goods on the world market mean more demand for US dollars to buy those goods, fewer foreign goods in the US market mean fewer foreign currencies demanded to buy those goods, and thus USD goes up versus everyone who's an "enemy of America" (Canada, the EU, the UK, etc.).

I'm wondering how long it's going to take before people realize there's an opposite narrative: tax breaks like Trump's, that generate a trillion-dollar-a-year federal deficit, should make a currency collapse in value.

Which, actually, would make for a better way to eliminate a trade deficit... though I doubt Americans will want to live through that hellscape.



Friday videos: Death, but with yeah you've got that already


Death, the funny version:



Thursday, August 2, 2018

The Krugginator on Buttcoin


Krugman - why I'm a crypto skeptic. Nice to see it managed to claw its way back to $8000, btw. Hope you all dumped.


Monday, July 30, 2018

Back


Sorry, had an emergency operation to have half my liver removed. But I've still got all my spleen, as you can see below:


Global - US firms queue up for tariff waivers. No, steel tariffs aren't as simple as you think.

New Deal Demoncrat - Q2 GDP is as good as it's going to get. I dunno, I mean what's supposed to stop this juggernaut?

Calculated Risk - no, the housing market hasn't peaked. If that's still doing fine, then the US will continue to expand.

WSJ - why Treasury hasn't labelled EU, China as currency manipulators. Germany, by the way, is engaged in constant currency manipulation: it's part of the ECU and trading with a currency that is weaker than a Deutschemark would be. And that's why Germany's current account surplus is eight fucking percent, and has been that high forever, which parenthetically was precisely the cause of the Spanish and Irish crises earlier this decade, but will never change because Germany owns the fucking EU.