Friday, March 23, 2018

Calm words from Liz Ann Sonders

My favourite market commentator has some calm words to get you through the "OMG can an idiot president really cause a collapse in world trade" fears:

Liz Ann Sonders - quit piddling your frilly little pink girl-panties.

Unfortunately Jeffrey Kleintop is still around, shitting all over her reports with his fucking unqualified idiot free-trade nonsense that he got from his BA in business admin and his MBA - neither of which are an economics degree, or even a political economy degree.

But you can just ignore his crap, which is easy to find in her write-ups because it's always hyperbolic emotional nonsense, and focus on Liz's sensible commentary:

With the recent myopic focus on tariffs and trade over the past several weeks, investors might have forgotten that the underlying foundation of the U.S. economy remains solid, although the softer retail sales report caused the Atlanta Fed GDPNow model to dip under 2% for the first quarter, which now has only a couple of weeks left. In spite of these weaker first quarter growth projections, business sentiment remains very optimistic. The NFIB small business optimism index is at its highest level since 1983, with a record-high reading for its “good time to expand” component. In addition, the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index (covering about 88% of the U.S. economy) dipped only slightly to 59.5, while the forward-looking new order component rose to a quite robust 64.8. The accompanying ISM Manufacturing Index (covering the other 12% of the U.S. economy) rose to a robust 60.8, while orders remained strong. And actions are increasingly backing up these positive surveys, with The Wall Street Journal reporting that according to FTR Transportation Intelligence, heavy truck orders were up 76% in February relative to the year ago period.

Additionally, the labor market remains strong, with forward-looking jobless claims recently hitting their lowest level since 1969 and the latest monthly jobs report showing a surprisingly strong 313,000 jobs were added in February. The unemployment rate remained at a low 4.1%; with its flat reading reflecting a jump in the labor force participation rate from 62.7% to 63.0%. Perhaps most calming to the markets was that average hourly earnings were up only 2.6% year-over-year; down from the downwardly revised 2.8% in January, and calming some fears about more aggressive Federal Reserve policy after the prior month’s hotter wage reading.

Read her every week, it's free and Liz is a genius.

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