Friday, October 28, 2016

Trump: #1 among omnicidal AIs

CNBC - an AI predicts Trump will win the election. Quote:

An artificial intelligence system that correctly predicted the last three U.S. presidential elections puts Republican nominee Donald Trump ahead of Democrat rival Hillary Clinton in the race for the White House.

MogIA was developed by Sanjiv Rai, founder of Indian start-up It takes in 20 million data points from public platforms including Google, Facebook, Twitter and YouTube in the U.S. and then analyzes the information to create predictions.

The AI system was created in 2004, so it has been getting smarter all the time. It had already correctly predicted the results of the Democratic and Republican Primaries.

Data such as engagement with tweets or Facebook Live videos have been taken into account. The result is that Trump has overtaken the engagement numbers of Barack Obama's peak in 2008 — the year he was elected president — by 25 percent.

There you go. An AI predicts that Trump will win the election. Despite, y'know, being behind in every single poll.

Cuz you've already seen the movie, so you can be sure that if Trump doesn't win, the AI will hack into NORAD and send the launch codes to start WWIII.

Friday video: Keep on Lovin' You

The quiet version:

Wednesday, October 26, 2016


NY Mag - the night that Obama and Hillary founded ISIS. Hilarious:

It was late one night in the White House when Obama first came up with the idea for ISIS. He hadn’t been sleeping well. Michelle told him to take some deep breaths, have some hot milk, and rewatch Princess Bride, but he’d made it all the way to the Billy Crystal scene, and he was out of milk, and Michelle had started snoring. The snoring was loud and nasty and kind of wet-sounding, like a broken boat was giving birth to another boat. He had to get out of there.

First, he headed down to the Oval Office and tried to sleep on the couch, but it wasn’t long enough for his legs, and it smelled like generals’ butts. For a long time, he just wandered around the West Wing alone. He was sad and tired and had the nervous feeling that he was doing something he shouldn’t. He peeked into people’s desk drawers and found pictures of cats and dogs and babies. He was thinking about stealing a Kind bar off one of his interns’ desks, when suddenly a word appeared to him: ISIS. He grabbed a Post-It note and wrote it down. What was it? What did it mean?

It wasn’t until months later, at Coachella, that the idea started to take shape. Obama loved electronic music — the beats, the lights, the DJs, the wonderful fans — and every year, for just one day, the Secret Service allowed him to go to the music festival. They would hang back, and he would wear sunglasses, a flower crown, a neon tank top, and a tight European-style bathing suit and just dance. The people who did recognize him were too drunk and high to convince anyone of what they’d seen. (“Hey, bro, it’s the president!” “Yeah, bro!”) The president would block it all out and surrender to the thumping, sick beat. He had done a tiny bit of molly with a French Canadian woman named Bonjour when the word “ISIS” came back to him. Ever since he was a little boy, he had wanted to start an international terrorist organization of his own. He’d just never had the right idea. People had been starting terrorist groups for years, and he knew that if he wanted to break into the market, he needed some big new shtick. Wait. Of course. He went into his wallet and dug out the crumpled Post-It note. Yes. He would be the first American president to start an international terrorist organization, and it would be called ISIS. Bonjour was naked now, trying to bend a glow stick around one of her breasts. He gave her his flower crown, got in an Uber, and drove straight back to Washington. By the time he got home, he had a plan.

Coachella? What the fuck do they think Obama is, a frat bro? "Hey, wow, man, let's do some Molly and listen to Matthew Dear and Ellie Goulding in the middle of a desert!" Where exactly does one find a"thumping sick beat" at Coachella, anyway?

Other than that, of course, this story is entirely accurate. Read it and weep, Libulardos!

They also said she couldn't murder Vince Foster

2 from Bill McBride

Calculated Risk - chemical activity barometer foreshadows industrial expansion. Quote:

Currently CAB has increased solidly over the last several months, and this suggests an increase in Industrial Production over the next year.

So quit piddlin' your panties and buy the SPY already.


Calculated Risk II, the Riskening - real estate prices and price to rent ratio in real terms. Wherein there is this chart:

Which means that

In real terms, and as a price-to-rent ratio, prices are back to late 2003 - and the price-to-rent ratio maybe moving a little more sideways now.

But then again, why would you believe some guy who was never banned from Wall Street from insider trading, whose father wasn't a Bulgarian spy during the Cold War, who doesn't post Russian propaganda and disinformation straight from RT ten times a day?

Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Zerohedge doesn't know what oversampling is

Zerohedge - ermahgerd, Podesta recommends oversampling to rig polls!!!1!

Sorry, Russian disinfo stooges and the mouth-breathing idiocracy that loves them, but that's not what "oversampling" is.

When your dataset has heterogeneous subcategories (such as when you're polling and you know that certain racial groups vote differently than others), the heterogeneity will wreck your confidence level if you sample too few of a subcategory.

I.e., if your sample of 100 includes only 5 black women, the result of that subsample can quite easily turn out non-representative: it's too possible to get 4 out of 5 responding Republican when you know the subpopulation should on average respond around 1 out of 5.

In the aggregate, that will wreck your survey's confidence level.

So you oversample small heterogeneous minority groups, to get a better confidence level. Your survey will poll a higher proportion of black males and black females than their proportion of the population, as well as a higher proportion of Latinos, 19-25 age group, sub-$20,000 earnings group, and so on. With larger samples of the subgroups, you will have better representativity in your results.

Then you downweight the result from that oversample so that it fits back into the aggregate.

This is what is done in market research and anyone who's taken 2nd-year stats knows this. FFS anyone who's worked at a market research office phoning people knows what a fucking oversample is.

But Zerohedge and the rest of the Russian-funded Fear Uncertainty & Doubt campaign know you haven't taken 2nd-year stats, so they run bullshit stories and skew them to make you think there's some grand fucking conspiracy.

This, by the way, is why I'm deleting Zerohedge-style comments on this blog without even really reading them. You get to have your comments posted again once you demonstrate you've educated yourself.

The 281 people, places and things that Donald Trump has insulted on Twitter

NY Times - the 281 people, places and things that Donald Trump has insulted on Twitter. Takes a while to load. Individual links to twitter comments.

Now if only the press would ever do a summary of any other Republican's public positions.

Monday, October 24, 2016

Retailers rush to hire for holidays

WSJ - retailers rush to hire for holidays. Quote:

Retailers geared up to hire holiday-season workers in August this year, an unusually early start showing how competition has intensified for temporary help in a tight labor market.

Data from job-search site shows retailers, and the warehouse and logistics firms they compete with for seasonal labor, started searching for temporary workers a month earlier than in recent years. This suggests retailers and other firms “anticipate stronger consumer demand and expect that it will be harder to find the people they want to hire,” said Indeed economist Jed Kolko.

Last year, more than one in four retail workers hired in the fourth quarter of 2015 started their jobs in October, the highest share on records back to the 1930s.


The tighter labor market also is putting upward pressure on wages. Wages paid by retailers and other typically low-wage employers have increased in recent years as the pool of available workers shrank.

“Retailers, in general, are going to wind up paying more for their seasonal workforce than they have in the past, and probably more than they’re expecting,” said Joel Bines, co-head of consulting firm Alix Partners LLP’s retail practice.

I know that nowadays mainstream economics considers it the hallmark of an evil communist dictatorship for the working class to be paid a decent wage; but the fact is that it's good for consumption, and thus good for the economy.

Sunday, October 23, 2016

Trump's chances continue to vanish

Battleground 270 - chances of a Clinton or Trump victory. As of today, the chance of a Trump victory is down to 2.4%.

Mainly because his chances are vanishing in Michigan, and Clinton has now drawn even-ish in Georgia.

So now he's threatening to sue everyone who accused him of sexual assault.

It's nice to know that all the Breitbart and Alex Jones in the world can't save you from reality.

As far as the third debate goes:

Disappointing that they didn't even use "no, you're the puppet". That was the best line in the whole debate.