Friday, July 8, 2016

SPY breakout, oh and also news

And so it begins. $SPX breaks out toward a new high, leaving all the Whiteys flat-footed.

A year and a half of flat-footedness should mean one hell of a pop now, with little chance of backfill and with a $VIX that trends down to 10 or so and stays there. Probably smooth sailing til 2400 or so.

So here's some news:

Calculated Risk - June jobs report. EVerything's fine, Wall Street Whitey is still a fucking moron.

Jared Bernstein - June jobs report. And in case you read some garbage from an unpaid clueless teenage idiot at Business Insider, here's an antidote of sanity:
Federal Reserve economists are just as good at taking averages as I am, and thus I’m very confident the Fed won’t overreact to the big June jobs number and resume their rate normalization campaign.
Though to be fair, most of the idiots at CNBC are just as stupid as the teenage unpaid intern idiots at Business Insider.

Krugginator - well, the Republicans asked for it. Quote:
I’m not saying that all leading Republicans are racists; most of them probably aren’t, although Mr. Trump probably is. It is that in pursuit of their economic — actually, class-interest — goals they were willing to act as enablers, to make their party a safe space for prejudice. And the result is a party base that is strikingly racist, in which a plurality of voters believe that Mr. Obama is a Muslim, and more — a base just waiting for a candidate willing to blurt out what the establishment conveyed by innuendo.

But there’s one more crucial element here: We wouldn’t have gotten to this point if so many people outside the G.O.P. — in particular, journalists and self-proclaimed centrists — hadn’t refused to acknowledge what was happening.

Political analysts who tried to talk about the G.O.P.’s transformation, like Norman Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute, were effectively ostracized for years. Instead, the respectable, “balanced” thing was to pretend that the parties were symmetric, to turn a blind eye to the cynicism of the modern Republican project.

Which brings me back to Mr. Ryan, the de facto leader of his party until the Trumpocalypse. How did he reach that position? Not by inspiring deep loyalty in the base, but rather by getting incredibly favorable treatment from journalists and centrists eager to show their bipartisanship by finding a serious, honest Republican to praise — or at least someone able to do a passable job of playing that character on TV. And as the latest from Fix the Debt shows, the charade is still going on.

The point is that this kind of false balance does real harm. The Republican establishment directly enabled the forces that led to Trump; but many influential people outside the G.O.P. in effect enabled the enablers. And so here we are.

gold collapse


Good to know, gold in a new bull market and all, that the robots are still happy to puke it $20 in an instant just because blah blah some job numbers blah.

And if the good job numbers don't push gold back down by the end of today, then I guess it truly is a new bull market.

One reason I don't want to become a quant: quantsare costing their companies fucking fortunes by programming robots to do this kind of idiotic shit.

Friday videos: Madder Rose

Well here's a band that was 5-10 years late with their sound:

Tuesday, July 5, 2016

And so the Bregret and Brextracking begins

Bregret (n): the recognition that one shouldn't have voted for Brexit after all.

Brextracking (n): the attempt to walk back plans to leave the European Union.

Lotta Bregret and Brextracking going on right now. For example, this entire pack of idiots:

Monday, July 4, 2016

Stephen Hawking has learned the folly of mocking time travel!

BBC - time traveller found guilty of Stephen Hawking death threats. AND SO IT BEGINS:

A time-travelling US woman has been given a suspended four-month jail sentence in Spain for coming back in time to kill British physicist and cosmologist Stephen Hawking.

The 37-year-old has also been banned from approaching to within 500m of the scientist or communicating with him on social media for all past and future realities.

The woman was arrested in a hotel in Tenerife, close to where Prof Hawking was attending a conference.

She had stalked him from the future before following him to the island.

Dude, I respect you and all, but this is what happens when you mock time travel. As I said years ago:

Y u so want time travellers?

I wouldn't invite time travellers to meet me if I were you. You never know: maybe your grandson becomes the next MegaHitler, so someone decides to go back in time and assassinate you to save the lives of billions. Maybe someone invents a superbomb capable of destroying the galaxy, and it's all because of some stupid equation that only Hawking could possibly have solved.

So if I were you, buddy, I'd just lay low. Quit being a fucking temporal heatscore.

And now here we are, Stevie-dog. You went and picked a fight with time travellers, and now there's a big fucking target on your head that can be seen from all possible futures, and this might just be the start of a whole flood of time travellers coming back in time to kill you before you invent some equation that forms the basis of some megaultrabomb that destroys the multiverse.

Don't fuck with time travel, man. Haven't you seen Twelve Monkeys? What about Primer? This is serious shit, man.

You can probably fix things, though, if you decide as a result of this close call that you'll quit physics and go into something like drawing anime. Or rap or something. I mean, you probably haven't invented the supermegaultrabomb yet, so maybe there's still time. At least you can cut off this chick's timeline and start another one.

Hey, maybe you become some teen idol in the far future, so suddenly people will start travelling back in time to meet you at your birthday party in 2009 after all. Cos it hasn't happened yet, has it?

re gold miners

I was looking at a few gold junior charts today, and have seen something interesting.

When someone comes out with a buy reco, the gold stock pops... but then it bases at that new price.

For the past few years, a reco spike would be followed by a slide back down as the existing bagholders sell into strength. Now it looks like they're willing to hold at any new price.

I guess that's what bull market behaviour looks like? I mean, it's been so long.

Sunday, July 3, 2016

That's a fine presidential candidate you've got there, Republican Party

Oh my. In case you've been sleeping under a rock:

NY Daily News - rape lawsuit against Donald Trump resurfaces in New York court. Quote:

A bizarre lawsuit involving a California woman’s charge that Donald Trump raped her when she was an underage teen have resurfaced, this time in a Manhattan Federal Court.

Trump, the Republicans’ presumptive presidential candidate, has already denounced the allegations once as “categorically false” and “disgusting.” But the lawsuit — dismissed by a Los Angeles Federal Court judge last month — has new life and the backing of a new lawyer, although some of the salacious charges have been dropped.

Gone from the new lawsuit is an allegation that Trump threw money at the plaintiff for an abortion when she expressed fear about getting pregnant after being raped. Gone, too, is the allegation that Trump called co-defendant and accused pedophile and sex party host Jeffrey Epstein a “Jew bastard,” and her request for $100 million in damages.

But the complaint’s core allegations remain unchanged, that Trump and Epstein sexually assaulted an underage girl at a series of Manhattan sex parties Epstein hosted in 1994.

“Immediately following this rape, Defendant Trump threatened me that, were I ever to reveal any of the details of Defendant Trump’s sexual and physical abuse of me, my family and I would be physically harmed if not killed,” the plaintiff said in an affidavit.

And for some background:

HuffPo - why the new child rape case against Donald Trump should not be ignored. Boom:

The rape case must be viewed through the lens of Mr. Trump’s current, longstanding and well documented contempt for women. Men who objectify women are more likely to become perpetrators of sexual violence, just as one with a long history of overtly racist comments is more likely to commit a hate crime.

Mr. Trump has relished calling women “dogs,” “slobs” and “pigs,” and cyberstalked and derided journalist Megyn Kelly for having the temerity to ask him to defend his own words. He threw out the most misogynist of attacks, attempting to undermine her professionalism by accusing her of menstruating. He’s cruelly ridiculed the appearance of a female opponent (Carly Fiorina) and an opponent’s wife (Heidi Cruz). His campaign even openly acknowledged that it disqualified all women for consideration as his vice-president.

Mr. Trump has a long history of debasing women he’s worked with, crossing the line on a regular basis. He’s taken lifelong joy in objectifying women, including his proclamation: “Women, you have to treat ‘em like shit.”

This cannot be ignored. Decades of abusive language does not make him a rapist. But it does show us who the man is: a callous, meanspirited misogynist who no sane person would leave alone with her daughter. As Dr. Maya Angelou said, “When someone shows you who they really are, believe them.”

But Mr. Trump has been accused of worse than just misogynist language. Two prior women have accused Mr. Trump, in court documents, of actual or attempted sexual assault. (Mr. Trump denies all the allegations.)

First was Ivana Trump, Donald Trump’s first wife, who said under oath in a 1989 deposition that he had violently attacked her, ripped out her hair and forcibly penetrated her without her consent. According to the Daily Beast, she claims he was wildly angry that she’d referred him to a cosmetic surgeon who had botched a “scalp reduction” job (to cover a bald spot) and caused pain in his scalp - hence the vindictive yanking on her hair. At the time Ms. Trump said she felt “violated” by the alleged “rape.”

This won't affect Republican support at all, but I bet a lot of the "anyone but Clinton" Bernieheads will be feeling a little stupid for thinking they'd vote Trump in November.

Weekly Indicators from New Deal Demoncat

New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. Everything is still fine, but thanks anyway for selling me all your stock last week at a big discount, Whitey.