Monday, January 4, 2016

Some news for the new year

Here's what passes for news nowadays:

New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. Real estate loans, M1 and M2, tax withholding, you know the drill. He thinks a commodity bottoming might be in the cards, which definitely would vaporize one honky excuse for selling the S&P.

Calculated Risk - 2015 is best year on record for US hotel occupancy. Therefore sell!

World Complex - on the cost of living in China. Well, I guess they aren't a Western developed market yet after all: you can still afford food in China. That might actually be due to lack of Western-style income supports: here in Canada, it seems prices for consumer staples are jacked up whenever minimum wage or welfare payments go up. I expect if you had no welfare or minimum wage, then businesses would have no option but to sell food for low prices. Then again, a land with no welfare or minimum wage isn't all that great to live in if you're unfortunate enough to be working class.

Verdmont - own oil over gold in case of zombie apocalypse. The rum was apparently flowing liberally in Panama this holiday season:
In our opinion, in order to do the mass killing that these zombies are anticipated to conduct, they will need zombie mobiles and transports to get around. There is no way they can cover that much ground and do so much killing on foot. These vehicles will need to be powered by refined oil products, whereas the demand for gold and how to trade it under such a scenario is questionable.

Now, please be reminded, that our thesis on oil vs. gold completely breaks down if:

1) The zombies turn out to be liberal zombies, as liberals, no matter what form, hate oil. This is a key risk to monitor. There is a good chance that the zombies will be liberal, as liberals will try to appease their attackers, instead of fight them tooth and nail. At this point they will have their brains devoured and quickly be on Team Zombie. This will not be fun for them, as Team Zombie works longer than 4 hours a day, has a performance-based culture, there are no extended holidays and you can never retire, let alone at 40 with full benefits. To add to the misery, Zombies are completely racist. In fact, they are all-consumed by this racism, as their sole mission is to devour humans as we know them.
2) These zombies are predominantly Eastern European, are female and/ or gay males. In this case, point A is remains largely relevant, and furthermore, jewelry demand will remain robust as looking fantastic will remain important. If they are going to kill, this group will want to do it with a certain degree of panache. They will appear much like the zombies in Michael Jackson's "Thriller" video. Tremendously mean, yet at the same time, flamboyantly dressed and incredibly gifted on the dance floor. In such an environment, gold demand should remain elevated.

So, if you are dying to be involved in the commodity complex, own oil over gold. There is tremendous relative value there and oil should outperform under various scenarios.
Zombies can't be liberal, guys, because they are against taxation and social programs. In fact, zombies are most definitely libertarian, since they're utterly fucking pig-ignorant of the tragedy of the commons that is their very existence, and expect the rest of the world to clean up their negative externalities.

Your "short Canadian banks" call still sucks by the way, guys.

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