Thursday, July 2, 2015

Today's vix comment


So I bought HVI.to on Tuesday, USA bounced Wednesday.

But I sold the vix short today, cos if the USA is closed Friday, then given their panty-piddling response to Greek events earlier this week, I'd expect a lot of sissy Americans to go buy short-date downside protection today. And that'll mean $VIX intraday spiking, and maybe the VIX futures term structure backwardating.

So $300 isn't a bad win for 2 days' work.

$VIX itself is doing this:


Which is a blow-up to +3SD on Monday, a retract back down to the EMA(10) this morning, and now I wouldn't be surprised to see a blow-up back at least to +2SD.

I assume if Greece votes no this weekend, the US market will reek of urine-soaked pink panties on Monday, so there might be some opportunity in the future to short $VIX if you so desire.

Though last year $VIX was backwardish through the second half of the year, so XIV actually lost money from last June thru to this Feb. I dunno why, but I wouldn't want to sit through that again.


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