Friday, July 31, 2015

Some Friday gold news

Off to work today! Here's some news:

Bron Suchecki - gold forecasts everywhere. He reaches into his pile of past gold forecasts, and finds that all they've ever done is extrapolate a trend.

Bloomberg - monsoon defies el Nino forecasts. What? All of a sudden they've stopped whining about an Indian drought?:
“Thank God, we do not have to worry about water this year,” said 45 year-old Panda from Sambalpur in India’s Odisha state, who grows paddy in his 20-acre farm. “I enjoy looking at my lush green field now.”

The monsoon’s revival from mid-July has boosted rice and soybean crops, curbing food price gains and easing concerns of shortages. India’s central bank has said it’s closely watching the rains after identifying a monsoon shortfall as the biggest risk to the economy, where agriculture accounts for about 15 percent of gross domestic product. The country depends on rain to water half of its crop land.

“The nation is heaving a collective sigh of relief as the performance of monsoon is better than what was forecast,” said Soumyajit Niyogi, an interest-rate strategist at SBI DFHI Ltd. in Mumbai. “Better agriculture output will provide much needed room for the central bank to further cut rates.”
And area under cultivation is already higher than last year. So everything's fine, yeah?

Skymet - CEO's Indian monsoon update. It's actually going to remain dry for southern India. Unfortunately, those are the guys who buy the most gold. Still, the overall forecast is a 98% chance of normal or below normal, which is >90% average rainfall, which should be enough to not be noticeable for most farmers.

Reuters - RBI to hold rates on Aug 4th. Hey, speaking of which... you know how the gold price is supposed to go down when interest rates go up? Because gold has no yield? Then why are Indians still buying a thousand tons of gold a year when the RBI's rate is 7.25%? I guess India doesn't count to the gold market? Only America counts? The country that doesn't actually buy gold? That so? - new chapter in controversial Barkerville Gold saga. And so Sprott converts his debt into equity, and it's run by the press as a good thing when it means existing shareholders are even further diluted. And they still haven't found them 100 million ounces that Peter George said they had. And there's still the matter of the BCSC investigation, which has been going on forever so it might actually be serious. Great company!

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