Friday, March 7, 2014

A hilarious reading of "Fifty Shades of Grey"

I came across this video below after finding out that Millionaires count as "crunkcore". Huh? That's very sad.

Anyway, here is someone doing an utterly hilarious dramatic reading of a sex scene from Fifty Shades Darker or something, fuck I dunno.

It confuses me, because I thought it was supposed to be some sort of hardcore S&M novel series, and here they are in book two and there's boring old-fashioned oral sex going on.

That middle-aged soccer-mom women take this book seriously in any way suggests to me that they must never have had sex in their lives.

Some morning newsreading

Here's some stuff for the morning:

New Deal Democrat - Feb jobs report was surprisingly decent. Even then, he still worries too much. Grow some balls and buy the S&P, sissy!

Calculated Risk - commentary on the employment report. Bill McBride weighs in with his own opinions.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - the 2007 top versus today. The breadth charts show there is no looming market top. Grow some fucking balls and buy the S&P, sissy!

BI - financials rally as tech takes a step back. Pretty obvious, really; everyone spent the last 6 months buying the QQQ, while financials fell behind. Now other sectors will play catch-up.

Calculated Risk - Fed flow of funds shows household net worth at record high. In case you have any clue how to interpret such a data point.

FT beyond brics - India elections: the market reacts. By going up because GS noted a Modi win is good for India. I'm still sure that you want to sell on the actual election results: India is still a pathetic third-world shithole. It should be a positive input for the gold price in the meantime, though: that is, if only Wall Street Whitey had a fucking clue what drives the gold price.


The Daily Mail, your one-stop source for science news - scientists build orgasm machine for women that delivers a climax at the push of a button. Article helpfully includes illustrations of what an orgasm and a pushbutton might look like.


No, they're not referring to the ATM.

No men aren't now obsolete, but we'll probably be killing a lot more spiders.

Yes, you should buy stock in Realdoll.

Blah blah blah, various further one-line responses, everybody laughs, roll on snare drum, curtains.

IKN says copper's the big story today

IKN - screw the BLS, copper is the big story today. This chart looks like the gold chart during the ultimately failed battle for $1500. Take a look:

Multiple bangs against a support level, with lower and lower highs on each rebound and the price spending most of its time below the weekly SMA(50)? Sorry buddy, that doesn't look good.

If copper breaks below $3.10 this time, it might be the last time. The more times you've already banged against support, the weaker each recovery is, the more likely you punch through it the next time.

And when $3.10-$3.00 is broken, what will all the commodity speculators want to do with their copper positions? You think they'll hold them when the chart's broken?

Geez, I wonder if those Chinese copper stores being used as collateral for dodgy shadow banking loans have anything to do with this?

If so, a copper collapse below $3.10 might be a bad omen for gold.

Gold price goes clunk

That clunking noise you just heard was gold getting slammed down $15 instantaneously on a good jobs report.

Calculated Risk - February jobs report.

So I guess you can assume that the Wall Street bots have come back to the gold market, and they're trading instantaneously based on inputs that have utterly no bearing whatsoever on gold's physical supply/demand characteristics. Because America.

Let's see if this is enough to kill the junior miners:

You want to see GDXJ stay above $41.50 on the close.

The gold price is still in the same uptrend that it's been in, as long as it stays above $1330.

Friday videos: Kylie Minogue

Here's cute little Kylie doing her worldwide #1 hit:

Thursday, March 6, 2014

It's been under an hour and I'm suddenly #1 on Google

Oh come on! The post is only an hour old. This was not supposed to happen!

I now appear ahead of the actual cruise in Google searches.

What's that? You're saying it's just because Google owns Blogger? You really saying that free-market capitalism is at fault here?


And #1 in searches for doug casey cruise too.

Daniela Daniela Daniela! with Eric Coffin and Eric Fier at PDAC

So here's Daniela Cambone interviewing the always-rumpled Eric Coffin:

And here she is with Eric Fier from Silvercrest:

Take it away, Eric the orchestra conductor!

Permaslave Dave's report from the 2015 Casey Cruise

Permaslave Dave - my adventures with Rick Rule on the Casey Cruise. He hasn't written this post yet, but I'm sure he will.

Someone (who you'd never expect to be on the Casey mailing list) sent me a link to this:

The 2015 Money, Metals, & Mining Cruise

where, in January 2015, you can spend ten fabulous days on the six-star luxury liner The Crystal Serenity with Marc Faber, Doug Casey, Brien Lundin, Peter Schiff, and the man who PSDave calls "devilishly handsome", Rick Rule.

Now, you would never catch me aboard a boat full of Objectivist Libertarians: I'd be worried about whether their rational self-interest includes throwing me overboard and telling the authorities I'd skipped out in Venezuela to assist Nicolas Maduro in spreading socialist revolution.

Plus I love my brain cells too much.

But what of a man like PSDave, who calls Rick Rule "devilishly handsome"? For him, spending ten days in the Caribbean with his boy-crush would be irresistible, no? And for only $6,720-$18,040 plus port taxes?

I'm sure he'll be going.

So here, ten and a half months ahead of time, are a couple previews from PSDave's post about his 2015 Casey Cruise adventure, where he meets his hero:

The noontime noos

Here's more things to educate and entertain you!

Bespoke - jobless claims lower than expected. You'd have to be a real dunce to call for a secular top here.

Ritholtz - new highs aren't a fluke. You'd have to be a total fucking retard to call for a secular top here.

FT beyond brics - Indian voters itching for change at the top. The election has been called! Funny nuff, there are 9 separate voting days over the space of a month, so maybe we'll see a good two months of strength for gold as Modi starts addressing concerns? Then again, it's good to remember that Indian elections are bought at the local level, and nobody really knows who's going to win.

FT beyond brics - Aam Aadmi party putting on a good show in India. Apparently, Congress is expected to only win 100 seats; I didn't know it was going to be this bad for them. That would be a positive for gold, or at least it would be if Whitey bothered to figure out who buys it and decided to follow that country's news.

Guardian - Narendra Modi: India's saviour, or worst nightmare? Well, Jim O'Neill likes him, and I like Jim O'Neill.

IKN - Daniela Daniela Daniela! interviews Eric Coffin at PDAC. Since I can't post YouTube links from here at work, I'll just give you a link to IKN's post.

Permashave Dave - Daniela Daniela Daniela! interviews Eric Fier at PDAC. Geez, everyone's an Eric Fier fanboy all of a sudden, eh? Oh well, I guess I can take this as proof that Daniela reads my blog and takes my interview suggestions seriously.

Chronicles of Brodrick - Fraser Institute survey of mining is a good read. Hey Sean, reading is good, stay in school and drink your milk and all, but please understand that the Fraser Institute is a bunch of wilfully ignorant right-wing neocon hacks who really truly have no fucking clue whatsoever about international politics.

The Economist - why recovering assets from deposed kleptocrats is hard. As an aside, I want to bring up again my dismay that Fortune magazine never included Gaddhafi, Mubarak or Yanukovich in their lists of the richest people in the world. Is there a reason for this? Are they trying to perpetuate the lie that only hard-working clever job creators become billionaires?


The world gets even more exciting and we get even more reasons to own gold bullion!

The Daily Mail (Your One-Stop Source For Science News) - asteroid raced by the earth at 33,000 mph and came closer than the MOOOOON!!!1!one!!

Thankfully this gave everyone a grave illustration of why you need to own gold. I mean, what are your mass-printed fiat dollars going to be worth when this rock falls onto the double-wide of some guy in Soda Springs Idaho?

Nothing! Nothing I tell you!

Buy more gold!

NORTH KOREA TO HOLD ELECTIONS: here's what you need to know

Came across this bit of news, and since it's so world-shaking I had to share it with you - with a Joey The Weasel headline and everything.

Reuters - North Korea to hold elections. It sounds exciting, too! Quote:
"Agitation activities are going on to encourage citizens to take active part in the election with high political enthusiasm and labor feats, amid the playing of 'Song of the election,'" KCNA reported.

North Koreans, it said, sought to "demonstrate once again the might of single-minded unity by casting ballots for their candidates".
They're obviously trying to get out the vote.

And the Economist even ran a primer for its many North Korean readers:

Economist - How North Korean elections work. Apparently, they're about as democratic as the old Soviet Union elections:
They are presented with a single candidate in the district where they live. These candidates are chosen by the Democratic Front for the Reunification of the Fatherland, the governing coalition, which is controlled by the Workers' Party. There is only one box to tick. Abstaining or voting no would be a dangerous act of treason, given that voting takes place in booths that do not provide any secrecy, and dissenting votes must be posted into a separate ballot box.
We certainly live in exciting times!

Buy gold!

The chart is the chart, and GDXJ is moving up.

Like I said, GDXJ bore watching. Whatever my theories are about the price of gold and the broader markets and yadda yadda, if the juniors still go up from here then I have to either buy them or explain to myself why I don't want to make money.

I like money.

So here's GDXJ as of this morning:

GDXJ is threatening to break above the top line of the pennant, so it doesn't matter what I think about gold and the miners and the PDAC curse: if it keeps going in this direction, it's going up.*

Even more, it looks like it's tested and is now loving away from its weekly SMA(50), which means a new longer-term bull market.

* - really all TA boils down to this, no? If it's going up, buy it. If it's not going up, sell it. Anything more complicated is just some wackaloon trying to be clever.

Wednesday, March 5, 2014

The news at noon

More news later maybe. I've been busy. This'll keep you going for now:

Ritholtz - market highs are bullish, not bearish. I'll simplify it for you with even more sarcasm than Barry could ever muster: you see constant new all-time highs in bull markets. This is because the markets are going up. You don't sell all-time highs; you buy them. Unless you're a fucking moron.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - the relentless bid explained. Money is flowing into the market because people have money, the market is going up because there is money to buy the market.

Calculated Risk - ADP 139k for Feb. ADP is useless, wait for the BLP on Friday.

Bonddad - Paul Krugman agrees with me! He's happy that the Krugginator agrees that gasoline prices act as a choke on the US economy. And as he notes, this is a tailwind for the US consumer. Still think the US has topped?

Reuters - iron ore hits 8-month low, traders rush to sell. As I said, this is important for me, because it indicates lower demand for iron ore as a collateral for business loans. Ignore it for now if you want, but if you do start hearing about iron ore collapsing, do please watch the gold price.

Your daily propaganda from Mother Russia, courtesy the SVR-funded stooges at Zerohedge

You don't have to click on any of these because it's all foreign propaganda.

Zerohedge - Our glorious leaders in Mother Russia tell us that it's actually the anti-Yanukovich movement who hired snipers to butcher civilians.

Zerohedge - Brave Russian government threatens to confiscate western assets if vile imperialist West imposes unjust sanctions.

Zerohedge - Evil Ukrainian fascist insurgent junta refuses to pay Mother Russia for gas; Mother Russia notes that puny Europe is too poor to bail out filthy Ukrainian fascist junta.

I grew up in a city that, in the 70s and 80s, had a Soviet-funded weekly newspaper. Really, I shit you not: it (and the local Communist party) was getting its funding directly from the Kremlin.

It became silly after Gorbachev curtailed funding for international agitprop: the paper moved to getting their funding from Ceaucescu, and suddenly started writing articles about the glorious workers' paradise of Romania. After he got the chop, they moved to getting funding from Albania, and suddenly every article was about the great Enver Hoxha and his own glorious workers' paradise. The paper eventually folded after Hoxha got his own just desserts, leaving no-one to pay their printers' bills (North Korea not being particularly involved in any international propaganda campaign).

And, of course, through all this, their narrative about the West remained the same: evil, fascist, imperialist thugs were we.

I mention this because Zerohedge reminds me of this stupid little Commie newspaper.

I'm not entirely convinced the miners are dead - a story with pictures

I sold my miners in anticipation of a PDAC curse. Of course, the next day Emperor Pooty-Poot invaded the Crimea, so things have since been given an opportunity to unfold in a non-standard manner.

Still, since I'm all about keeping an open mind and not adhering hard to any belief unless it makes me money, let's look at the charts and see if they confirm my move:

(charts after the jump, because there's many of them)

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

Daniela Daniela Daniela! interviews the Cookie Monster

Kitco must have brought their editing equipment with them, because here's Daniela Cambone interviewing Brent Cook already:

Apparently he has another PDAC drinking contest scheduled for tonight, except this time he didn't invite me.


I'm so fucking awesome that TV watches *me*

Check it out:

click to enhugeify

I'm so fucking awesome that TV watches me.

Here's your Cookie Monster BNN interview

I'm very disappointed in all of you. Nobody worked the phrase "Cookie Monster" into an email, nobody tried to say "Cookie Monster" on the phone, nobody even went up to the BNN booth at PDAC and held up a sign saying "I'm with Cookie Monster".

Not even Cookie himself. It was a free $20 for him, but he turned it down.

So on the whole, this contest was a waste of time.

Here's Cookie on BNN:

part 1
part 2
part 3
part 4
part 5
part 6
part 7
part 8

US market goes back to its uptrend

Three charts:

Dow transports moving up is confirmation of an uptrend, no?

R2K outperforming the SPY and breaking to a new high is proof of a bullish uptrend, no?

Regional banks going +3SD must mean housing, small financing, and the spread are going to improve, no?

The chart is the chart.

Yeah I own some ZUB, Canada's equal weight banking ETF; and HSU, which is the SPY 2x long. But no IWM. And I still own my Europe, though maybe that's set to underperform for a few months - I like the dividends.

Wanted to buy more and zero my cash yesterday, but didn't get the opportunity and was too scared to expose myself to continued downside risk.

Peter Crossgrove on BNN

What I will give you is a link to Peter Crossgrove, former CEO of Placer Dome, on BNN:

part 1
part 2
part 3

If you like watching an old man put the boots to them young whipper-snappers at Barrick, he's the guy. Quotes:

"Most of the directors of Barrick have never been to a mine, and if they did, they wouldn't know what the hell they were looking at."

"You have mining executives that have been pissing money away by the millions and billions of dollars to build bigger and bigger mines and not better companies."

I guess in a way he's just doing the easy and popular thing right now.

In any case, it's good to listen to an old man complain about the kids of today. And Crossgrove definitely seems like an old-fashioned guy who actually likes to run a company hands on.

And you can see there's a bunch of people at the BNN booth hanging on every word he's saying.

Oh, look at that. Gold's back down.

Here's Kitco at 9:05 AM:

Gold's almost back down to where it closed on Friday. So apparently either

1.  the Ukrainian crisis has been resolved, or
2. gold actually isn't much of a hedge against geopolitical crises, and this isn't "why we own bullion".

Let me know which it is.

I'll be interested in watching the gold miners' response today to see if they go back down (bearish) or not (frankly has to be construed as bullish).

Brent Cook's on BNN today, and a rant after the break

Cookie Monster sent me an email (because we're buddies dontcha know) to remind me that he's going to be appearing live on BNN today, Tuesday 4 March, from 1-2PM.

Even worse, he says "you may call in (Toll Free: 1-855-326-6266), Twitter (@marketcall), or email ( with questions during the show." Obviously he didn't know what he's getting himself into! So here's the deal:

I'll give a shiny 1oz silver coin* to the first reader who is able to call in or email, and get the phrase "Cookie Monster" mentioned live on BNN.**

* - Buffalo head, 1 troy oz. But I'll only give it to you in person. No mail, no paypal, no fiat - only hard money, unprintable, from my hand to yours, the way baby Jesus intended. Payment at the next PDAC or TRIC.

** - the easy way to do this would be to ask his opinion on Vantex's "Cookie Monster" property. But no I will not accept that. You will have to work harder.

Monday, March 3, 2014

Slightly less boring news

Keep selling the S&P, guys!

Calculated Risk - personal income increased 0.3% in January. All that good news you're missing!

Calculated Risk - ISM increased in February. BTW, Warren Buffett owns a railroad, didja know? And he confirmed today in an interview that the snow and the cold does really disrupt railroads.

Calculated Risk - construction spending increased in January. Still worried? He noted "private residential spending usually leads the economy, so this is a good sign going forward". But no, go listen to that blogger calling for a top this summer who's never heard of a leading indicator.

Bespoke - Ford F-series truck sales rebound. As noted, this is a loose proxy for the construction sector. Still worried about an impending top in the S&P?

While you've been following the Ukraine news....

Oh and by the way. Reality called while you were out watching the butterflies in the Ukraine.

Reuters - US factory activity growth hits highest since May 2010. Quote:
Financial data firm Markit said the final read of its U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index rose to 57.1 in February, above both the preliminary read of 56.7 and expectations for a read of 56.6. The report was much stronger than January's 53.7 reading, which was a three-month low, hurt by bad weather.


Williamson added, "The upturn pushes the trend over the last three months to the strongest since May 2012, suggesting that the sector maintained robust underlying growth momentum throughout the winter months."

Reuters - US construction spending unexpectedly rises in January. Sayeth the wheel:
U.S. construction spending unexpectedly rose in January as an increase in private construction projects offset a drop in public outlays in a hopeful sign for growth this quarter.

Construction spending gained 0.1 percent to an annual rate of $943.1 billion, the Commerce Department said on Monday. December's construction spending growth was revised up to 1.5 percent.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.5 percent drop in January after a previously reported 0.1 percent rise in December.

Reuters - Global factory growth at near three-year high in Feb. Quoth the raven:
JPMorgan's Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 53.3 in February from 53.0, above the 50 mark that indicates growth for the 15th month.

The U.S. PMI shot up, the euro zone's remained strong, and upturns in Japan and Britain remained robust.

Reuters - Italy car sales up 8.59% in Feb. Comin outcha mouth witcha blah blah blah:
New car sales in Italy, Europe's fourth-largest car market, rose 8.59 percent in February from the same month a year ago to 118,328 vehicles, Italy's transport ministry said on Monday.

There's something to be said for the cold dispassionate robotic heart of an automated news service in times like this. Apparently, we're now getting that positive DM data you've been worried about.

But hey, don't listen to me: keep selling the S&P 500 and Europe.

Some noontime noos

Gold's not taking off today - it's still about where it was hours ago. The miners are up on the day, but selling lower.

I'm looking very longingly at that short VIX ETF. But the problem is, can things get worse before they get better? That's what makes it such a hard ETF to play.

Anyway, Becky Quick is still one hell of a hottie, and here's three bits of news:

Wealth of Common Sense - long summary of market cycles. Basically an illustration of how the machine changes over time: like I said, you're lost if you don't know how the machine works. It's funny, btw, that "bonds have not had a single decade of negative nominal returns"; I mean, you'd expect that, since bonds (that don't default) always pay you back your principal, plus interest. Still, certain Americans still think government bonds are going to lose them a fortune in the next few years.

Reuters - Russian ties compound German dilemma. Basically, Germany equates the Ukrainians with the swarthy Greeks, and the Ukrainians don't buy their tanks and fighter jets from Germany. Meanwhile, the German criminal class in banking has invested a ton of money in Russia, and Germany needs Russian natural gas to keep the factories running. So the EU won't help the Ukraine, because Germany will be against it, because Germany will see no profit in it; and the German lapdogs in Holland, Denmark and Austria will follow their overlord's lead.

Stockhouse - David Harquail from FNV on mining. He's smart so read him.

And since that tramp harlot Mila Kunis is apparently marrying Ashton Kutcher (it won't last but even still), here's a pic of the blog's new girlfriend, Becky Quick:

GOLD EXPLODES, BECKY QUICK IS A HOTTIE: here's what you need to know

Your morning news, all from BI:

BI - Buffett is buying stocks if they go down today. He's the epitome of the successful investor, and also the epitome of the guy who "picks off the sissies". So you should listen to what he has to say. Which is why all the financial bloggers haven't been posting anything this morning - they're all watching Buffy.

In a related note, my god Becky Quick is such a sweet hottie. She's cute, but she's got an awesome personality that comes through on the screen.

BI - Buttcoin is replicating the south seas bubble. With a chart that says everything:

But please, libertopians, do tell me more about the value of stateless cryptocurrencies!

BI - gold EXPLODES. On the one hand, this sort of coverage repairs the damage to gold. On the other hand, I am not going to buy gold just because of some stupid sabre-rattling in the Ukraine, because I don't know what happens to gold when it stops.

I will, however, suggest that you watch the action in the junior miners to see if they move in tandem with the metal or not. Because the rational expectation, I think, would be that gold miners aren't going to see massive profits just because of a temporary spike in the gold price due to geopolitics; so the market today should tell us if it thinks this spike in the gold price is temporary or not.

Right now, GDX and GDXJ's charts are not broken.

Sunday, March 2, 2014

Just too late for PDAC, here's Carl Sagan's "Baloney Detection Kit"

Brain Pickings - Carl Sagan's baloney detection kit. Being smart and clever is worthless unless you also know the basics of philosophical reasoning and the scientific method, and are able to apply both of them in daily life. Carl Sagan was one of the few people who could bring the two together and explain them in a way that any clown could understand.

And believe me, anyone who doesn't understand philosophical reasoning and the scientific method is nothing but a fucking clown.

Read these points and think about each of them:

1. Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of the “facts.”

Don't believe what anyone says. Look up the data yourself. Lots of people out here are lying through their teeth, lots of people are spouting off second-hand bullshit without checking the data themselves.

Me included. I literally don't fucking care. Check my facts too.

Once you've fact-checked for a while, you'll learn who to not even bother listening to because every single "fact" they've spouted off in the past has, upon your time-wasting research, been proven to be as much a lie as every other "fact".

Because if they're not even bothering to get the facts right, they aren't trying to figure out the truth. If they don't have the truth, why are you reading them?

2. Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents of all points of view.

In my case, it means reading wider than the little goldbug world. And sometimes allowing comments on my blog. But only listening to the people who are knowledgeable.

Frankly, you waste your time if you listen to "other points of view" simply because they disagree with you. Sagan is not asserting that he should also listen to the foaming-mouthed ramblings of a Fundamentalist preacher.

Don't waste your fucking time: you're going to be dead or senile in a few decades.

3. Arguments from authority carry little weight — “authorities” have made mistakes in the past. They will do so again in the future. Perhaps a better way to say it is that in science there are no authorities; at most, there are experts.

Over at Fark, there's presently a thread that includes the statement that "Stephen Hawking thinks we don't need philosophy". I pointed out that this is the fallacy of appeal to authority, but the author wouldn't have known that because he never studied philosophy.

Also, William Shockley, inventor of the transistor, believed blacks were intellectually inferior and shouldn't be allowed to breed.

In any case, know who your experts are. In the goldbug world, 95% of newsletter writers are not experts in anything, and the remaining 5% know some things but are utterly useless at others.

A corollary to this: don't listen to anyone who doesn't tell you specifically what he's not an expert at.

4. Spin more than one hypothesis. If there’s something to be explained, think of all the different ways in which it could be explained. Then think of tests by which you might systematically disprove each of the alternatives. What survives, the hypothesis that resists disproof in this Darwinian selection among “multiple working hypotheses,” has a much better chance of being the right answer than if you had simply run with the first idea that caught your fancy.

Spin more than one hypothesis. Think of other explanations for the data. The first explanation you come up with yourself, or read on the internet, is almost certainly the wrong one.

Also, look at each piece of data. Try to understand what each piece of data means, what it represents, and whether it is referring to a what you think it's referring to.You have to know what it is that you're measuring, and you have to understand both the phenomenon that produces the data, and the mechanism you're using to measure the data. Without that knowledge, you're fucking hopelessly lost at sea.

5. Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because it’s yours. It’s only a way station in the pursuit of knowledge. Ask yourself why you like the idea. Compare it fairly with the alternatives. See if you can find reasons for rejecting it. If you don’t, others will.

That's funny - "ask yourself why you like the idea" is very Nietzschean.

But beyond that, there's another bit of wisdom in here: try to figure out what new data could come in that would prove to you that your theory is wrong and it has to be jettisoned. Then watch for that data, and see if the machine reacts to it the way you predicted it would.

This is vitally important in investing, and can be as simple as "the fucking stock is still going down so obviously it's not a great value", or as complex as "when the Chinese shadow banking collapse comes, I'm going to watch the price of gold for weakness, and if I see it flagging I'm going to sell everything and get out because there's a flood of 1000 tons about to get puked onto the market as collateral gets liquidated, and that'll be it for the gold market's confidence in a Chinese support to the gold price."

6. Quantify. If whatever it is you’re explaining has some measure, some numerical quantity attached to it, you’ll be much better able to discriminate among competing hypotheses. What is vague and qualitative is open to many explanations. Of course there are truths to be sought in the many qualitative issues we are obliged to confront, but finding them is more challenging.

Again, the data. Know what the fuck it is that was measured, and how the system of measurement affects the data. Know how and why you can expect that data to change over time.

7. If there’s a chain of argument, every link in the chain must work (including the premise) — not just most of them.

Nobody learns basic reasoning. We should make debate club mandatory. We should teach reasoning and argumentation starting in grade 7.

A dick like me can also simplify this to "I don't care if some goldbug asshole was even right about one thing if his argument is based on wackaloon libertarian chickenshit".

But they normally don't get that far, because they don't even know how to construct a coherent argument. If they do try, they often have the most idiotic premises underpinning it.

8. Occam’s Razor. This convenient rule-of-thumb urges us when faced with two hypotheses that explain the data equally well to choose the simpler.

Meh. I don't like this one. I prefer conspiracy theories.

9. Always ask whether the hypothesis can be, at least in principle, falsified. Propositions that are untestable, unfalsifiable are not worth much. Consider the grand idea that our Universe and everything in it is just an elementary particle — an electron, say — in a much bigger Cosmos. But if we can never acquire information from outside our Universe, is not the idea incapable of disproof? You must be able to check assertions out. Inveterate skeptics must be given the chance to follow your reasoning, to duplicate your experiments and see if they get the same result.

This is another more science-specific thing.

Though I guess you could interpret it for investors as "know when something's a moot point".


There are better books to read on this topic, but there's no reason why you shouldn't also read Carl Sagan's The Demon-Haunted World. Amazon's got the paperback right now for $10, buy it.