Friday, October 10, 2014

End of week $VIX data

Well, I was watching til the end of the day, and there was a big surge in fear in the last few minutes, so let's see what people will be staring at all weekend.

That's a big backwardation there! October is at May levels. I thought maybe we'd get to Jan levels only. 

Then again, I only ever started following the term structure in the past couple years, so I have no idea what serious fear looks like. 

$VIX:$VXV is >1, which I guess is another heuristic to very roughly approximate the backwardness of the term structure.

All along I'd suspected this drop would break the downward trend in the weekly candles. I was kinda hoping for 22, but heck maybe we can get to 30 or 40?

Then again, when's the last time $VIX got to 50% above its EMA(10)?

Then again, it probably did back before 2012, which is as far back as this chart goes. Maybe we just haven't had enough panty-piddling over the past 3 years for this chart to be giving me a sufficient dataset to form an opinion with.

I mean, if you've got Wall Street clowns whining about a 5% drop in the S&P 500, then maybe what we need is a 15-20% drop before things can get good again?

So I dunno. I'm agnostic on everything and just want to see the market continue crashing, like I said, til next Thursday.

Though if $VIX could somehow pop to 30 or 40 on Tuesday, I'll still short it cos I'm kind of a dumbass that way.

And always in the back of my mind is the pondering about how maybe this is the market paying back all those who thought it was clever to short the $VIX. Because frankly there's no other fundamental reason for it to go down.

Oh, and

Junk bonds are in no fundamental trouble whatsoever, but don't let that stop you from puking them, Whitey. I mean, as long as you keep freaking out the robots making all the trades, that's fine by me, I've got lots of cash at the ready for when the bottom hits.

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