Tuesday, September 30, 2014


The signals you're following are all lies.

This is so good that I am going to force you to click through. Those who don't click through are going to miss a good one.

Here's high-yield:

Wow that looks horrible, eh? I mean, nice recovery today, but still a scary chart, eh? Ooh sell sell sell, eh?

Well look at this:

HYG is doing fine once you factor out US dollar fluctuations. Still a strong uptrend. Still making all-time highs, in fact, including today. It's still a strong buy for people outside the US, in other words.

What about IWM?

OMG it's also horrible! Look at that horrible downtrend! Ooh ooh! Sell sell sell! Someone phone Josh Brown and ask him for a spare pair of frilly pink panties!

Are you sure?

IWM is still doing perfectly fine once you factor out US dollar strength. Right now it's consolidating at the July pivot, along a still-rising SMA(50).

And the S&P 500?

What a fucking beautiful chart. A horizontal consolidation at its all-time high, bleeding off the RSI overbought signal.

All the things the bots have been programmed to trade are giving false signals right now because of the strong US dollar move.

Maybe that's why the $VIX term structure is still calm and $VIX hasn't popped above 17 yet.

I thought there had to be something fishy going on. Whenever Josh Brown posts something smug about the S&P being down 2%, you can bet that he's full of shit.

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