Tuesday, December 31, 2013

One more video - press play at 10:59:56 PM

Further to the last Friday video, here's Seiji Ozawa with the Shin-Yu Kai chorus and the Berlin Philharmonic, really hitting one out of the park with Carl Orff's Carmina Burana:

It's really the best version I've ever heard, except the horns seem a bit flaccid and (it being YouTube and me only having computer speakers) the sound quality is a bit muddy.

Nevertheless, press play at 10:59:56 PM and let Seiji Ozawa ring in the new year for you.

Oh and some news why not

Some reading about stuff:

The Chronicles of Brodrick - man, gold's chart really fucking sucks. Wherein he posts a chart:

Sean, who is left to sell gold down below $1200?

Mineweb - India mulls gold mining revival. I'm sure that'll work. I mean, India's done a great job mining coal and iron, right? But seriously folks, one thing to look out for in a secular commodity bear market is third-world countries artificially depressing commodity prices through state intervention and industrial subsidy. And India is great for state intervention and industrial subsidy, no?

Bespoke - tracking the financial post-crash recovery versus the QQQ post-crash recovery. In which we are presented with this comparative chart:

Now, I already proved just a month ago that the GDXJ has gone through a NASDAQ 2000-style crash. If so, then if you assume the miners have already hit bottom, and that the GDXJ simply follows even just the bank crash as an analogue, it will take 300 days just to get back to $60, and another 700 days after that to break through. Pretty damn sad, eh?

Oh, and that's assuming the GDXJ recovers the way the banks did - via a massive infusion of cash from the US government. Uh... which isn't going to happen. So if you instead assume the GDXJ follows the NASDAQ recovery line, it'll take 1500 days just to get back to $60.

That's 5 years for a double. It's more realistic to expect that from the S&P 500.

Blog stats fun: Vanessa Collette edition

Daniela officially has competition:

And if you remember, I was the one who identified the start of this trend months ago.

Personally I think Vanessa Collette does a fantastic job of keeping a sweet smile on a straight face while insane right-wing goldbug freaks blather on self-importantly about their pet conspiracy theories and utter lack of economics knowledge.


Here's that David Morgan blathering on about how Janet Yellen is the Anti-Christ and silver's going to $100, and yet Vanessa's ineffable sweetness keeps us from clawing our own eyes out.

BTW, David Morgan's website was where you could find David Bond's promotion of Liberty Silver. So you can be certain that Morgan has perfect judgment in all things silver.

Here's Jeff Berwick claiming "Bitcoin could go to infinity million dollars", and yet stalwart Vanessa keeps our brains from melting into a puddle of Statist goo by rocking out in this cute dress & jacket combo.

Oh, and it looks like she's wearing a ring, so there's the answer to your question. Her dude is probably a handsome rich Hollywood actor and brain surgeon. Or something. Which you're not.

By the way: is it just me, or is Jeff Berwick looking more and more like John McAfee as he gets older?

And here's Vanessa listening to Bill Murphy's theories about gold manipulation, and yet the only thing going through my mind is "damn, she looks even cuter with straight hair! My god, is there anything Vanessa Collette can't do?"

Meanwhile all Daniela does nowadays is talk to sane, boring people like Peter Hug.

No wonder, then, that the goldbuggosphere is calling out for a new queen.

Monday, December 30, 2013

The most embarrassing video of 2013: Metallica and Ray Davies not dying in a hail of gunfire

God, this is horrible.

Let's go over the reasons why this is horrible!

1. Metallica;
2. Metallica;
3. Hatfield doesn't even pronounce "Davies" properly;
4. Ray Davies stoops to share a stage with these has-beens;
5. Metallica;
6. I guess the irony's lost on Metallica that the last metal band to cover this song was Van Halen, and Metallica's version sucks more than Van Halen's version, yet once upon a time Metallica considered themselves a more serious and heavy band than Van Halen;
7. I can't stop repeating, Metallica;
8. the guy who originally played the guitar on this song, oh and who parenthetically invented the fucking guitar riff, thus inventing rock music, THUS GIVING METALLICA A CAREER PATH THAT DIDN'T INVOLVE DOING OIL CHANGES OR DEEP-FRYING CHICKEN, isn't on stage because Ray doesn't like that his brother's a poofter or something;
9. Oh and Metallica.

Friday, December 27, 2013

Michael Shaoul on Bloomberg

Bloomberg - Michael Shaoul 12-minute audio interview. He talks about EMs and gold.

He says the general problem in EMs is that on the way down, you uncover all the malfeasance that nobody cared about on the way up. Particular significance for the EM credit complex.

Then he talks about gold. He thinks there's a "next leg down", and gold goes to $1000 in 2014.

He says other things too.

Reviewing the new Miley Cyrus video for her hit single "In Case You Didn't Watch Me Masturbate In My Last Video"

Here's that new Miley Cyrus video for "Adore", where she's in bed in her underwear masturbating:

What's shocking is that at 3 minutes, she suddenly switches to being in a lace bodysuit in a bathtub, singing about "God" and "holy matrimony". And masturbating. Yes, I watched this with the volume up, and no, you're not missing anything if you keep the speakers turned off.

Anyway, thankfully, she goes back to more masturbating 30 seconds later. Oh, and sucking her finger is a nice touch.

The verdict? I can fap to this. Though I'd rather watch a video of Lexi Belle masturbating. Or singing.

But do keep shooting softcore porn for us perverted old men, Miley! It's a positive contribution to the world.

Some Friday newsreading

Here's some stuff:

Bespoke - individual bullish sentiment back above 50%. But:
With individual investor bullish sentiment crossing the 50% mark, should investors be worried? While the current level is definitely elevated, it's by no means without precedent. As shown below in the chart of the AAII reading going back to 1987, sentiment has been above the 50% mark many times in the past. Coming out of the financial crisis, it has taken a long time for investors to gain trust in the stock market. Longer term, the market needs investors to have faith in it as an attractive asset class. As long as earnings can keep up with stock prices and the economy continues to grow, it would be nice to see sentiment stabilize at a more elevated level.

It's nice when an analyst goes back to beyond the 2000 crash to look at longer-term data, isn't it? Because sentiment should do something different in a secular bull than what it does in a secular bear.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - chart of the day: overbought. But:
It’s easy to poke fun at people who’ve been using valuation or some other fundamental indicator as a market timing signal. It’s demonstrably ridiculous and the results for the most stubborn among them have been disastrous.

Equally ridiculous is the idea that any one or two technical indicators can tell you when an uptrend or a downtrend is through running its course. We all have our favorite technical measures of price but, in the end, all of them are subservient to price itself.
Apparently the S&P500 has been overbought for all of 2013:

But you and I both know that something can stay overbought for a long time - just like something such as gold miners can remain oversold for one hell of a long time, no?

Here's what Chubby says:
The next time someone cites this or any other single indicator (fundamental or technical) to bolster their bull or bear case, be sure to reply with “So?” No signal operates in a vacuum and, as I like to say (perhaps too often), it’s not different this time – It’s different EVERY time.

Not all of the metrics you choose to follow are going to be telling the same story at once and some of your signals – even your preferred ones – can spend what feels like forever in the cosmic penalty box, mattering less than the price of tea in China.
If you're doing TA, the first thing you should look at is price action, no?

IKN - Chilean copper mines are high-grading. Dunno why they should have to do this at $3.30 copper.

Mineweb - metals expected to go up in price in 2014. "Expected" means the ignorant guesses of a bunch of analysts who probably don't have that great a track record to begin with. You'd expect increasing world demand to boost prices, no? But no less than Jim Rogers (the commodity god) tells us that in a secular equity bull, that doesn't happen. So it'll be interesting to see if "this time is different".

Qz, the Middle Persian word for a joke that destroys the flow of a comedy program - Jewelry was the standout in America's holiday shopping season. Well! The gold bears should be thankful that jewelry isn't made out of gold! Wait... um... what?

Boing Boing - $1b/y climate denial network exposed. Here's a tip for ya, buddy: if your goldbug newsletter analyst is also a hardcore global warming denier, then you can ignore every single thing he's saying. Why? Because he's just proved that he's not there to help you invest. He's proved instead that he's only there to regularly exhort you to vote Republican.

And for my last Friday video of 2013:

I guess it's time for a bit of a change, so here's Corvus Corax playing "O Varium Fortune" from their production of the medieval opera Cantus Buranus:

The lyrics:

O varium fortune lubricum
Dans dubium tribunal iudicum,
Non modicum paras huic premium,
Quem colere tua vult gratia.

Et petere rote sublimia,
Dans dubia tamen, prepostere
De stercore pauperem erigens,
de rhetore consulem eligens.

Edificat Fortuna diruit;
Nunc abdicat quos prius coluit.

And I think it has something to do with this:

Til next year!

Thursday, December 26, 2013

Great Xmas!

Today I was clearing fallen trees from the backyard and truly came within a half-inch of getting an eye impaled on a branch. Thankfully my massive Cro-Magnon brow-ridge took most of the hit, so all I have now is a bad case of boxer's eye.

That's the second time I almost lost an eye, btw.

The first time was 30 years ago, so I guess by all the rules of Technical Analysis I should really watch out in 2043, right?

A bit of goldbuggery for you

I'm not truly anti-goldbug. Not at all. In fact I stack phyzz in my spare time. I'm just pro-reality, pro-empiricism, pro-education and anti-fraud, anti-incompetence, anti-fantasy, anti-lying and anti-Republican.

Here, I'll prove it to you:

Mining.com - Germany repatriated 37 tons of gold in 2013. Quote:
Jens Weidmann, president of the Deutsche Bundesbank, said Germany brought back nearly 37 tonnes of gold from its reserves in New York and Paris this year and that the final goal is to store half the national reserves of the precious metal, or about 3,400 tons, in its own vaults by 2020.

In an interview with the Bild newspaper (in German), the executive said the bank got back an estimated US$1.5 billion in gold, as part of a plan unveiled in January to increase the reserves held in Frankfurt. By 2020, it wants to have 700 tons back from the US and France.
Um, Jennie? As president of the Bundesbank, how are your math skills? Cos if you only got back 37 tons this year, it'll take you til 2031 to get your 700 tons back.

But I guess it's hard to repatriate your gold when it's all been loaned out by the Fed, melted into bangles and sold to Indian women. I mean, they're not going to just hand back their dowries, are they?

Maybe JP Morgan would be able to scare up more of your gold if they were willing to pay more than the premium that the Indians are happy to pay right now. I mean, otherwise it might be hard to scare up 663 more tons of good delivery bars in 7 years. I mean, JPM will have to buy 3-4% of primary production between now and 2020 just to make good, no?

Maybe you can just take delivery of the Fed's IOUs. I mean, they've been good-as-gold up til now, haven't they? Hey, it even costs less to deliver IOUs.

Look into it, Jennie!

Rio Alto seems to have stopped plummeting

Here's an interesting chart:

Of course this has happened on miniscule volume, but RIO seems to have started an uptrend.

I'm curious as to whether it manages to pop over the SMA(50) soon, and/or successfully retest the short-term EMA and establish an upward channel.

Thursday video: the Nobel Peace Prize awards?!?

I didn't know this was a thing, or that they'd hire a goth-metal band to play to a bunch of smelly physicists.

But anyway, here's Evanescence, singing about how junior gold miners suck and the Venture market has been completely destroyed forever, now nothing but a smoking ruin upon the face of Canada:

Now, has it completely sunken into your thick skulls how much junior mining sucks, how much the P.Geos have destroyed capital confidence forever, how much the regulators failed investors by allowing massive fraud, how much the idiot newsletter writers had no clue what the hell they were doing, how much even the officers of these companies were just stealing your money for their own back pockets? Hm?

Wednesday, December 25, 2013

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

For some reason, there's now a Kevin Spencer blog

So I was poking through the stats and saw that all of a sudden people took interest in my post about the Kevin Spencer TV show. Apparently some bulletin board people somewhere discovered the show and were blown away by its hilarity, as well as the fact you can find all the episodes on YouTube.

And also by this pdf of a complaint sent to the Canadian Broadcast Standards Council or whatever, which accurately sums up the TV show in whiny complainer form.

So one of the guys there has started up his own blog, where he's going to be reviewing every single episode of Kevin Spencer, a couple a week, starting December 31, 2013.

Now, my blog maybe only has 6 readers, plus Josh Brown and Joey the Weasel; but most of my readers are sick fucks to begin with, so they'll probably find the following link useful.

The Kevin Spencer Episode Guide

Actually, it even gives me an idea of something to do over the vacation that can sensibly involve drinking the large amounts of alcohol that I just purchased! What a great idea for a holiday!

The only difficulty is putting the episodes in viewing order.

Here's the series premiere, btw:

PS, to you guys from nohomers.net, who I'm sure will show up here: I used to watch Kevin Spencer every week. It's what turned me off South Park. The show was brilliant. It's just there's not enough sick bastards like me in Canada to keep it on the air past eight seasons.

Michael Shaoul on BNN

He's locked down his blog but he can't stop me posting links to his interviews!

Here's a link to Michael Shaoul on BNN.

He's very bullish the US, go listen to his opinions.

One thing he points out, on the topic of multiple expansion and directed precisely at Jordan Roy-Byrne and other unbelievers, is that just recently the UST30Y was trading at a 2.5% yield, the equivalent of a P/E of 40. So the US equities' P/E right now is nothing to be concerned about; people simply haven't allocated sufficiently into equities, and as the reallocation continues, the market will get richer. People just disbelieve it because they were so traumatized by the last crash that they're still thinking in crash-protection mode.

He doesn't say anything about Rosenberg's capital expansion and productivity increases.

He thinks the big mid-cycle risk is interest rates going up faster than the Fed wants, because it's still too far behind the economic curve. Then again, I don't recall Shaoul being invited to join the FOMC.

He notes the global growth picture is exciting; you haven't had Europe, Japan and the US all growing at the same time since 1987. Which is nice, since that year was the start of 13 years of a fantastic US stock market.

Tuesday video: oh come on do I have to tell you?

I dunno what "Musica Si" is, but here's Evanescence on it, performing "Bring Me to Life":

Monday, December 23, 2013

Does Nolan Watson actually do any due diligence?

IKN - Colossus Minerals mysteriously loses their gold after the mine is built. Apparently, once you let real geological consultants like Roscoe Postle look at the property, their gold disappears.

And in subsequent email Otto & I chatted about how stupid this makes Sandstorm Gold look.

Hey, Nolan! Smarty-pants! Um, did you bother to do any due diligence on this property? Y'know, before you handed them a pile of shareholder money to build a mine that it turns out they didn't even know how to dewater?

I used to think you were smart, kid. Now I know you were just lucky. And now the luck's run out.

More thoughts on Krugman and his "digging gold out of a hole in the ground" story

I'll post a link to this again:

Krugman - bits and barbarism.

And quote Krugger again:
Clever stuff — but Keynes wasn’t finished. He went on to point out that the real-life activity of gold mining was a lot like his thought experiment. Gold miners were, after all, going to great lengths to dig cash out of the ground, even though unlimited amounts of cash could be created at essentially no cost with the printing press. And no sooner was gold dug up than much of it was buried again, in places like the gold vault of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where hundreds of thousands of gold bars sit, doing nothing in particular.
Hey Krugger! You know that old conceptual error of thinking this time is like another time? The old "apples & oranges" thing?

John Maynard Keynes seems to have died long before Nixon ended gold convertibility.

So, really, Keynes was right. Digging up gold was nothing more than digging up money. Because there was a hard price control on gold: a miner only got paid $35 for each ounce.

Since 1971, what currencies have been linked to the price of gold?

So why have we spent the last 42 years still digging up more and more gold? Inertia? Because holy crap we sure seem to have increased worldwide gold production since the end of Bretton Woods.

Or maybe gold is a commodity whose demand is dependent at least partially on its value as insurance against existential risk?

Note to Krugger: if you actually do respond, please give me a free NYT subscription otherwise I won't be able to read your post. I like reading you, but I'm not fucking paying for it.

Inflation: first Joey the Weasel, now guess who!

BI - Rosenberg says "don't be fooled by the deflation hoax". Here's a fun story from Rosie about generational narrative inertia:
I spent the 1980s and 1990s on trading floors with old veterans from the late 1960s and 1970s who had only seen rising inflation and higher bond yields. They knew from nothing else and so it was very tough for them to buy into the disinflation theme and declining interest rates. In the periodic spasms to the upside they would say "Rosie, ya see, inflation is back". You see, they couldn't differentiate between what was cyclical and what was secular. And then I noticed in the 1990s and this past decade-plus, that we have an entirely new crew of bond traders on the desks, the sons, daughters, nephews and nieces of the old guard, who have only known disinflation, deflation, lower (minuscule) bond yields and radical Fed easing cycles. That is all they have known for their entire professional lives. Their elders didn't see the great deflation coming, and the offspring don't see the remote prospect of a moderately higher inflation environment coming at any time on the forecasting horizon. They have become entrenched in the consensus view of demographic strains, excess capacity and demand deficiency (I was there once, but knew when to make the turn).
I find generational narrative inertia to be a satisfactory explanation for things.

But I find it funnier that now even Rosie is starting to mention inflation.

This might become a thing.

Gee, is there some sort of thing that fat ignorant white people on Wall Street typically buy to protect against inflation? Some sort of substance, maybe? Like a yellow metal?


some pre-holiday news

And here's probably the last bunch of interesting news that I'll be coming across til next year.

Don't worry, I'm sure I'll have other things to foam at the mouth about over the next few days.

Philosophical Economics - the single greatest predictor of future stock market returns. Wow. This guy boils it all down to supply and demand. This is very freaky. Better wear a helmet when reading it, cos I don't want it to make a mess when it blows your mind.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - what could go very right in Europe? Dude, you don't have a clue about Europe. The Germans are always going to be sabotaging it. It's their race's moral imperative. There will be no stimulus, there will be no sensible banking union.

CNBC - cut your EM exposure by a third. Quote:
Goldman Sachs used the 59-page report to argue that growth in emerging markets from 2003 to 2007 was a result of specific economic circumstances that aren't likely to be repeated; the political and economic reforms needed to improve growth are too painful to undertake.

There has also been a "seismic shift" in investor sentiment on emerging markets for the worse. "The returns were not as attractive as expected, the economic growth rates were not as sustainable as imagined, and the countries were not as stable as believed," the report said.

Krugman - bits and barbarism. Strangely, he thinks gold is as worthless as Bitcoin. He starts with Keynes' story about burying money in disused coal mines so businesses could dig it up again, and then says this:
Clever stuff — but Keynes wasn’t finished. He went on to point out that the real-life activity of gold mining was a lot like his thought experiment. Gold miners were, after all, going to great lengths to dig cash out of the ground, even though unlimited amounts of cash could be created at essentially no cost with the printing press. And no sooner was gold dug up than much of it was buried again, in places like the gold vault of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where hundreds of thousands of gold bars sit, doing nothing in particular.
Because... um... one point two billion Indians have no reason to own gold? Because Paul's wife has a pull-tab from a beercan for a wedding ring? Gold does nothing, Perfesser? What is the point of a reserve? Gold has no insurance value?

You know I'm not an anti-Krugmanite at all. But god, he's really talking out his ass here.

Safe Haven - the time value of gold. I dunno, this guys sounds like a goldbug, but the article seemed very interesting when I read it.

Joey the Weasel asks if inflation is coming back

BI - will inflation come back? Joey the Weasel has brought it up:
Indeed, there are signs that the story is changing.

Owners' equivalent rent — which is how housing costs are imputed into the CPI — is showing signs of lifting off.

Meanwhile, headline measures of inflation lately have been dragged down by factors that don't seem likely to persist.

The year-over-year rate of growth in medical inflation has plunged lately, and the widespread belief is that this is likely to bounce back up at least a bit.

Meanwhile, we're benefiting from a major drop in gas prices compared to last year.

The gas trend might persist, but it's hard to know.

Meanwhile, the tightening of the labor market looks likely to continue as the economy gains traction in 2014 (which is a good bet, as we explained here).

And for the first time since the crisis ended, households are actually taking on more credit overall.

So it seems likely that inflation — something just hasn't been an issue at all in recent years — is going to be at least somewhere on our radar again.
All fantastic points.

Then again, Joey, if this is a new secular bull market, maybe we'll see a continued drop in commodity prices? What did commodities do in 1987-2000? As well, if Rosie's capex cycle starts in the US, what will that productivity improvement mean for inflation?

Also, Joey: if inflation is coming back, then maybe we need to allocate some of our portfolios to... um... some sort of shiny yellow metal?

It's wrong for gold-watchers to focus on US inflation

Mining.com - Sharps Pixley guy says it's wrong to focus on US inflation for understanding the gold price. He has a point:
Norman said while long-term inflation is an important driver for the gold price, it is wrong to focus just on US inflation, which is sitting near decade lows of 1.2%:

"Before the financial crisis India and China accounted for 46% of global demand for gold. Today its is over 80%. It is the inflation in those demand centres that really matter. Attempt to stimulate economies in the West often lead to inflation in those countries, where much of the goods bought in the West is manufactured. India's inflation is running at 7.5% and China's at close to 3.5%, and demand from these economies will continue grow in future."
Sure he's from a bullion dealer, so he's conflicted on the topic. Still, true gold consumption (buying a commodity and turning it into an asset class) is occurring in India and China, not in the USA; so if you are one of those fossils who believes in "gold as an inflation hedge", you better get your "where is the inflation" bit right.

And also, he notes the US/EU/UK are exporting inflation to the developing world right now.

Gold has nothing to do with America. It hasn't since Nixon ended convertibility. Deal with it.

update about this blog

The ice storm hit us yesterday, and the power went out for a long time. I still don't have any internet connection at home, and am writing this from work - where we had to break in because the security system locked us out.

I have a bunch of news links for you, but my work computer wants to install its Windows updates right now, so you'll all damn well have to wait a few more minutes.

Monday video: I think I'll just keep posting this over and over again

Here's Evanescence, this time at Rock am Ring 2012:

Amy Lee's significantly chubbier nowadays, which is okay, and it looks like most of the band has been replaced. Oh well.

Junior miners still suck.

Is the market open today?

If so, let's watch the final absolute destruction of the junior miners, as the last few dry retches dump the final worthless few shares into a rococo splatter all over the dive-bar toilet trough.

(You've never been to a bar that had a toilet trough?)

Sunday, December 22, 2013

Sunday video: a clip from Leno

This was apparently Evanescence's first TV performance, and the poor singer dude looks like a fucking tard doing the robot at the start.

OMG. Jeff Berwick on Bitcoin.

Yes, Jeff Berwick has an opinion about Bitcoin, and he talks about it on ...drum roll... Fox Business.

He thinks it has the potential to go to a million dollars.

Partially because the US dollar is going to collapse.

Oh and Galt's Gulch Chile accepts Bitcoin in return for land in Chile.

And so on.

So if you're going to VRIC 2014, we already know you're not going for the junior PM miner action; why not have a chat with Jeff Berwick about Bitcoins?

If I remember correctly, he can also hook you up with a Belizean passport.

Look for a guy valiantly fighting off a horde of Statist thugs. That's him.

Saturday, December 21, 2013

I missed this news: Kevin Shields is bonkers

So I missed the news back in October that apparently Kevin Shields from My Bloody Valentine is bonkers*.

Not that there's anything wrong with being bonkers, as such. Hell, look at me.

The Guardian - Kevin Shields calls britpop a government conspiracy.

Kevin Shields has raised the notion that Britpop was part of a government conspiracy. Speaking to the Guardian in an exclusive interview, to be published online later today and in the G2 Film&Music section tomorrow, the My Bloody Valentine leader reacted angrily to a mention of the Cool Britannia phenomenon.

"Britpop was massively pushed by the government," he said. "Someday it would be interesting to read all the MI5 files on Britpop. The wool was pulled right over everyone's eyes there."

In the early years of Tony Blair's premiership, Britpop luminaries such as Noel Gallagher and Damon Albarn were vocal supporters of the Labour government, and visited 10 Downing Street.

This sounds almost too sinister to be true. So you know it must be true! Fucking Labour coonts! Fucking nanny state totalitarian fucking coonts! Using fucking Oasis and Blur to breed a new compliant race of unthinking robots, then handing it over to their fucking coont buddies in the Tories so they can institute their Final Solution with the help of their fucking attack poodles in the Lib Dems.

They're all in on it. Even UKIP. Trust no one. The truth is out there.

And in the later interview:
"There are sinister forces at work," he adds. "Our freedom is diminishing. The rightwing is creeping in like water. That's got to stop." Then, zipping his cagoule purposefully, this sonic sorcerer and eccentric sweetheart issues a parting shot.

"Personally," he smiles. "I intend to react to it most disrespectfully."

Jeff Berwick was right all along! Wake up sheeple! We're through the looking glass here!

* - technically that should be "has been bonkers for a long time". Otherwise he'd have torn himself away from the fucking chemical spill outside the pharmaceutical plant for long enough to record a fucking album in 1994. 

Commentary on my awesome twitter mention.

This is awesome.

Twitter - BuffyNews feed

Short story is this: my post of a panel discussion that Liisa Ladouceur did with James Marsters and Juliet Landau earned me a twitter mention on the BuffyNews feed! And then a whole bunch of traffic!

I'm famous now!

So to celebrate, here's a video of two cute baby kittens hugging:

Mila Kunis beats all hedge funds in 2013: let's dive into the details

While I've temporarily got Wall Street paying attention to my blog, there's something I need to get off my chest:

Bloomberg - Mila Kunis annihilates hedge funds' 2013 performance.

If you don't remember, the story back in March was that Mila Kunis decided to take her enormous pile of wealth - gained not just from her transcendent beauty and heart-warming charm but also her fantastic acting and skill at World of Warcraft - and get it the hell out of CDs where it wasn't earning a goddamn penny. She said she was putting money into stocks.

And by the way, Mila Kunis is precisely this beautiful:

So, anyway, she was made the target of merciless mocking for her desire to get out of CDs and into some sort of proper investment for a young person.

And among her detractors was... who? A bunch of idiot clown bloggers and internet blowhards, of course. Chris Adams, Janet Paskin, Ben Hale, Mark Lichtenfeld, Daniel Gross, and of course Zerohedge and maybe a few dozen sheep at Reeking Alpha.

And yes, even Barry Ritholtz:

Barry Ritholtz, director of equity research at Fusion IQ, tweeted that he was glad she was sticking with her movie career.

"If she was giving up acting to become a daytrader, we'd have great contrary indicator!"

But since then, how has she done? Since March 15 when she gave her interview, the S&P is up 17%. QQQ is up 26%. IWM and $SOX are each up 21%. I'd have to think that her performance should be somewhere between those numbers. Let's say she's made an even 20%.

While everyone was laughing at the silly girl. Ha ha, silly girl, iz teh dumz, shut up Meg, and so on.

Tudor Investment Corp., the $13.4 billion macro hedge-fund firm run by Jones, climbed 3.7 percent in November in its Tudor BVI Global, bringing gains to 12 percent in 2013, a person familiar with the matter said.
That's not your average hedge fund clown, either. That's Paul Tudor Fucking Jones. Mila Kunis wiped the fucking floor with Paul Tudor Jones.

That's supposed to be as unlikely as me clobbering Vitaly Klitschko til he cries like a baby girl and pees himself.

But it is what it is, eh? She whipped Paul Tudor Jones' ass, and made him cry wike a widdle baby, boo hoo, while she's smacking him with his own hand, "why you hitting yourself, Paul Tudor Jones? Stop hitting yourself, Paul Tudor Jones!", and eventually he poos his pants and has to get sent home to mommy.

But it doesn't stop there:
Pershing Square Capital Management LP, the $12.1 billion activist hedge-fund firm run by Bill Ackman, posted a 1.2 percent net gain in its main strategy in November, according to a performance update obtained by Bloomberg News. Pershing Square International’s monthly return brings its year-to-date advance to 9.4 percent. The fund has $5.1 billion in assets.
That's not your average hedge fund clown either. But he, also, had his ass handed to him by Mila Kunis.

Hey Billy boy, here's what Mila Kunis looks like when she's laughing at you:

So cute! Almost takes away some of the sting of being beaten by a girl, eh? A girl who's not even a hedge fund manager, even.

I bet she even owned some Herbalife.

Let's look at some more comparisons with the Kunis Benchmark, shall we?
Bridgewater Associates LP, the $150 billion firm run by Ray Dalio and based in Westport, Connecticut, posted a 0.1 percent gain in its $16 billion Pure Alpha I fund, bringing this year’s return to 4.1 percent, according to a person briefed on the results. Pure Alpha II, with $64 billion, increased 0.1 percent in November and 6.1 percent in 2013.
Translation: Ray Dalio has also had his ass handed to him by Mila Kunis.

Whose stunning godlike radiance, by the way, unsurpassed through the ages, humbles even the immortal sun in photographs such as this:

Let's see if there's even more embarrassment of hedge fund clowns!
Jeff Vinik, the former Fidelity Investments stock picker turned hedge-fund manager, told clients in May that he was returning their capital after performance at his Vinik Asset Management LP slumped since July 2012.
What a clown. This guy can't even stay in business in a bull market! Jesus fuck, dude! You suck!

as industry assets quadrupled and the number of hedge funds almost doubled, managers have mostly trailed the S&P 500.
Holy shit! "Mostly"? That means "hedge fund managers have mostly trailed Mila Kunis"!

Trailing Mila Kunis, by the way, might look something like this:

It gets worse. And by "worse", I mean you arrogant Wall Street fatties all fucking suck and should just fucking kill yourselves right now:
Hedge funds, which stand to earn about $50 billion in management fees this year based on industrywide assets, are underperforming the benchmark U.S. index for the fifth year in a row
What? People are paying hedge fund morons fifty billion dollars to get outperformed by Mila Kunis?

Every one of you clowns out there who went "herr derr Mila Kunis top sell sell" should feel fucking humiliated. You should publicly shame yourselves in blag posts and twerts and whatever the fuck else, for the rest of the year, proclaiming Mila Kunis as your new god, and admitting your own worthlessness in the face of the transcendent beauty and infinite investing wisdom that is Mila Kunis.

I now end this post with another pic of Mila Kunis laughing at Wall Street:

You are all bad, and you should feel bad.

My resolution for 2014: no more reading investment advice from anyone who isn't Mila Kunis.

And now for some news

I've felt everything was pretty much set-and-forget, so there wasn't much point in posting news. Also I was busy with other things.

But here's a bit of weekend reading for you:

BI - David Rosenberg's outlook for 2014. I wonder if Mister "dishonest system coming apart at the seams" is going to quote Rosenberg in this weekend's newsletter? I wonder if "abating fiscal headwinds" and "increasing capex growth" are economic concepts that your local doomer analyst even comprehends? I wonder why you should be giving even a penny of your money to an "analyst" who doesn't even understand these things?

Bonddad - on Thursday's initial claims report. Haven't been reading his blog recently, but here he looks under the hood and points out several places where the data is not what it seems. Read it.

FT beyond brics - China liquidity crunch. Seems nobody's paying attention to this right now.

Marketwatch - Mark Hulbert on gold. Ouch:
Gold market timers have not themselves completely thrown in the towel. If and when they do, contrarians would become more confident that a sustainable gold rally was imminent.

Consider the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold market timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest (as measured by the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI). This average currently stands at minus 16.7%, suggesting that the typical gold timer is allocating a sixth of his gold-oriented portfolio to shorting the market.

That means that the typical timer is only modestly bearish right now. You’d think, given the panic elsewhere in the industry, that they would be more aggressively bearish.

There are two patterns in the accompanying chart that are noteworthy in this regard. First, notice the HGNSI’s low this past summer. That’s when it dropped to minus 56.7%, which meant that at that time the average gold timer was more than three times more bearish than today. Contrarians are wondering why, since bullion itself is only slightly higher today than where it stood when the HGNSI was so much lower.

Secondly, notice how quickly the HGNSI has been jumping every time gold tried to mount even a tiny rally. That’s a bad sign, from a contrarian point of view, since it suggests there’s an underlying reservoir of hope and optimism. The ultimate low, according to contrarian analysis, will be one that is met by a lot more skepticism and despair from gold timers.
So this isn't the bottom yet? I don't really follow Mark Hulbert and his sentiment analysis, but I know certain goldbug TAs out there do. It'll be interesting to see if they mention this article this weekend.

Mineweb - more stories about Indian gold smuggling. There's a billion Indians and 400 tons of organic gold demand being repressed: does anyone really believe that incompetent clown Chidambaram when he asserts "the maximum gold that can be smuggled is 1 tonne a month"? Especially when Indians are doing this:
In another incident, officials of the customs department recovered gold hidden in dates from a man who landed at the Pune International Airport from Sharjah. The suspect has been identified as a resident of Kasargod in Kerala, who worked in Abu Dhabi.

The custom sleuths found the dates wrapped in a bag. Further investigation revealed that the seeds of these dates had been replaced with gold beads wrapped in black packets. The gold beads weighed 409 grams each.
Seriously, when they're going to these lengths, you can be sure there's an army of Indians doing a better job smuggling their gold into the country.

Especially when you realize professional smugglers pay off the police and airport authorities so that they never even get their stuff inspected. This guy with the dates was just a hobbyist.

BCSC is fucked in the head, charges Silvercorp analyst with fraud.

Mineweb - BCSC accuses analyst of fraud in Silvercorp short-selling. What? Publishing a report based on boots-on-the-ground research, that leads you to take a short position, then profiting from that position, is fraud? Have the Chinese government bought someone at the BCSC now? Because we know that Chinese politicians have already gotten involved in political pressure on behalf of Silvercorp, including extra-judicial kidnapping. It's to the point where the SEC was investigating Silvercorp, not the report writers. Here, BCSC assholes, let me quote the Barrons article for you:

Whatever the verdict in Luoyang, Huang and his colleagues seem justified in their skepticism of Silvercorp's mining. Over the past few years, Silvercorp has steadily revised downward the grade quality it claims for its silver resources, to a level that's now just a third of its initial claims. Earlier this month, Silvercorp seemingly validated the hedge fund's findings, when Silvercorp told shareholders that its ore grade had fallen because its contractors had adulterated the Henan mine's output by adding "waste rock" to the ore to increase their transport payments and mining fees. Since the fiscal year that ended in March 2011, Silvercorp's annual earnings have fallen from 40 cents a share to 16 cents a share. Its New York Stock Exchange-listed shares have slid from their 2011 high of $16 to a recent $3.27.

Who exactly committed the fraud here? Hm? I certainly hope the BCSC aren't basing their case on this testimony from China:

Wei says Luoyang police tried to get the analysts to sign prewritten confessions that said the analysts had fraudulently run their chemical analyses on roadside rocks instead of Silvercorp ore. The Canadian Huang refused to sign what he said were false statements. But Wei, 33, was a Chinese citizen who couldn't hope that a foreign government would come to his aid. Wei led police to believe he would testify against his colleagues, and he signed confessions that -- now that he has escaped to London -- he says were false and coerced. "If I didn't say what they want," Wei tells Barron's, "I will be put in jail."

I wonder if the Canadian government will ever bother to get involved in this BCSC case, or if our own government's silence has been purchased with Chinese money:

Don Davies, the member of parliament who represents the Vancouver region where Huang's father lives, suggests the Canadian government may be dragging its feet. The administration of Prime Minister Stephen Harper, he notes, has fervidly pursued China's investment and trade. When contacted by Barron's, a spokesperson for Canada's Foreign Affairs Ministry, said, "We are in contact with local authorities and are monitoring the situation closely."

BCSC, you're fucking up badly. You've just done a fantastic job of proving that we can't even count on the regulators. I'll be keeping my capital the fuck away from Canadian exchanges from now on.

Saturday video: No really, now for something completely different

Here's a clip from La Voz Peru, which seems to be some sort of "Peru's got talent" TV show for Peruvians in Peru.

And if course, she does a cover of "Bring Me to Life" by Evanescence, about the total destruction of the junior mining scene.

Friday, December 20, 2013

Friday videos: and now for something completely different.

Yes, it's Evanescence again, singing "Bring Me to Life" again, about the death of the Venture exchange again.

Except this time Amy's wearing a red bustier and a star and is a bit more chubby, and the guy who also sings is pretty much left out of the mix:

Really, it's hard to keep track of these.

Also junior miners suck™.

Thursday, December 19, 2013

Little Xmas present: Daniel Richler interviewing the Jesus & Mary Chain in 1985

I remember seeing this interview on TV as a kid and wanting to be a rock star like the Jesus and Mary Chain.

Here's Daniel Richler, from The New Music, interviewing the Jesus & Mary Chain (oh look, including Bobby Gillespie) back in 1985. Tons of memorable quotes here.

Best line is William: "My favourite colour is gold."

As a commenter says, re feasibiliy studies

As commenter Fredrik L says, concisely and transcendently,

So a bankable feasibility study is just a well formatted and ├╝ber designed guesstimate. No wonder that most investors are turning their backs on the sector, and they won't be back in a hurry.

And this is what Garth Kirkham P.Geo. needs to understand. This is the basis of the 43-101 discussion that our little vom-soaked corner of the blogosphere is trying to start.

You guys are getting no more fucking capital from the capital markets, ever. Not until you clean up your goddamn act. Which begins with the proper apportioning of blame.

Til then, no new mines get built, no more exploration happens, because you are getting no more capital. Because capital got its ass handed to it. Your admitted-faulty system lost capital money. And so capital has decided it'd rather be somewhere else now.

Like I've been saying for 2 years, you guys have re-enacted the Bre-X fiasco. Except this time the entire industry joined in.

Thursday video: ha ha! You thought I'd given up!

Ha ha! Not bloody likely!

Here's Evanescence, this time with the music video for the song "Bring Me to Life":

One newsbit, followed by a rant

BI - gold just got ANNIHILATED!!!1!ELEVEN!!

Here's Joey the Weasel:
It's not totally clear why gold just fell out of bed this morning.
Um... more sellers than buyers?
But overall this is a terrible environment for gold, as all the old stories about endless Fed printing and hyperinflation and political instability are coming to an end.
Yes, and how much gold demand is generated by people buying due to fears of hyperinflation and political instability, Joey?
Instead the Fed is pulling back on QE, the US government just passed a budget, and inflation remains low?

Silver is also similarly tanking.
And that's the funny bit, the thing about silver. Cos if the US economy is accelerating, then shouldn't an industrial metal used widely for electronics and photovoltaics see its demand increase?

Instead, Wall Street Whitey tanks silver because he thinks it's just another form of gold.

So that's your answer to the first bit, above. Wall Street Whitey sells the PMs and they go down.

Let's criticize the "professional" geologists' community some more

IKN - more on Aurcana.

I'm sure he won't complain if I quote the post in is entirety:

Instead of pointing the finger at the bullshit liar Lenic Rodriguez this time (though he's still as guilty as fuck of being a bullshit liar, that hasn't changed a jot) let us expand our catchment of the liars and bullshitters that populate this sorry tale that is Shafter.

Step forward, Jack W. Burgess, PE, of 165 Windover Lane, Corrales, New Mexico 87048, United States of America. Jack Burgess and his company, JB Consulting, is the man responsible for the 267 page work of fiction known as the 2011 Shafter Feasibility Study, the very study that contained key data described as "an inconsistent predictor of tons and grade" by AUN.v on December 12th 2013 (yup, we had to wait that long for those AUN fuckers to hire somebody who was reliable and had the guts to speak truth to power) and that once a re-do of the 43-101 were complete it would result in "...a significant reduction in the aggregate mineral resource estimate as compared with the mineral resource estimate contained in the June 2011 amended feasibility study".

So, close-knit mining community, can you see to it that Jack Burgess is struck off for being a liar? Or will it be just another case of you self-serving pieces of shit passing the blame from one desk to another and nobody is responsible for your pisspoor system?

Strong words from someone who actually has friends who are professional geologists!

But yeah. Perhaps someone like Garth Kirkham, P.Geo, 43-101 QP, CIM Best Practices Committee Chair, can explain what process will now be instituted by the "profession" to determine whether JB Consulting produced a competent FS.

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

One quick thought...

I realized that it actually should be the goldbug right-wing hyperinflationista wackaloons who are caterwauling for a 1929 crash.

After all, they're the ones who spent the last 3 years losing 90% in the junior miners while the S&P500 went up nearly 100%.

The people who most passionately want a crash, as Ritholtz and the Borker note, are the ones who haven't spent the last several years in the broad equities.

Yet again, Republicanism and Obama-hatred will remain a losing investment strategy.

Wednesday video: I can keep posting Evanescence videos all year. Can you keep owning shitty junior miners?

Here's Evanescence, with "Bring Me to Life", which as you know by now is about the final destruction of the junior mining scene, this time in Europe:

You can tell this was a few years after the song first broke. Still, good performance.

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Apple joke

My wife tried out the iPad recently.

She said it was uncomfortable and not even slightly absorbent.

Man emerges from bunker after 14 years

No, this really happened:

CBC - Man emerges from bunker 14 years after Y2K scare. Quote:

January 1, 2000 was the day that our computers were meant to fail us and change our lives forever. It was also the day that 44 year old Norman Feller headed into his underground bunker over fears of the fallout from the Y2K virus. Remarkably Mr. Feller spent the next 14 years in isolation only to emerge this past September.

In this touching documentary, Peter Oldring visits with Norman to learn more about his unbelievable decision to live underground.

What's really bummed him out the most is that he missed a 800% bull market in gold.

Dave Nadig gloats over the destruction of gold

Dave Nadig - fool's gold: the end of an era. Don't know this guy, but Josh Brown linked to him. He has an interesting point about the gold investment industry:

GLD’s peak NAV in August last year was $184.59. On that day, there were 424 million shares outstanding, for net assets of more than $78 billion, with an implied annual fee due of $313 million a year.

Today assets stand at just $33 billion—well under half their peak, with an implied fee base of $131 million a year. That’s nearly $200 million that’s leaving the GLD management ecosystem.

I’m not expecting anyone to feel sorry for the poor ETF issuer here (State Street and the World Gold Council). Rather, I’m pointing out that decline in gold has made for some rather dramatic shifts in the investment economy.

That's an interesting point, no?

Then he spends a big chunk of the article putting the boots to Eric Sprott:

Consider Eric Sprott. I first came to know of Sprott when his Physical Gold Trust launched in 2010—right in the froth of the run-up—and it was being called an “ETF” by various media sources (it’s not; it’s a closed-end fund). At the time, I ripped it apart for tax issues, poor marketing and various other shortcomings.

That’s nothing to the savaging Sprott received at the hands of one of the smartest bloggers on the Web, Kid Dynamite. Kid Dynamite has made a kind of sport out of watching how Sprott’s closed-end funds magically become un-closed and issue new shares when they trade to large premiums.

Nothing wrong there, other than the fact that the big recipient of those nonpremium shares tended to be other Sprott funds, who could then sell them for the premium price. Nice work if you can get it.

But while the various shenanigans may have worked on the way up, they’ve brutalized the company—and Eric Sprott—on the way down. Take their flagship closed-end gold fund, PHYS. It launched on Feb. 26, 2010. GLD investors are up 9.09 percent since then. PHYS investors are up 6.36 percent. I don’t know how you leave 1 percent a year on the table when your only job is to buy gold and stick it in a vault, but there you have it.

And a comment about the worthlessness of all goldbug commentary, except of course for my blog which is awesome:

Of course, the question any rational investor should ask is, What’s next? And that’s where it becomes very difficult to read the news. In most rational sectors of the global economy, analysts are analysts.

You read the reports from agricultural experts or retail-stock experts, and they generally call things as they see them. In the precious metals space, nearly every article you get off any kind of Google search will always be telling you why “Now is the time!”

And a final bit of insight:

It’s important to remember that gold—and the entire gold investment economy—is unique. Gold, by itself, is useless and valueless. It has value only because it’s scarce, and then only because enough people believe its scarcity can make it a useful medium of representing value and making transactions. Gold is, essentially, an idea that people assign value to. Lots of folks believe? It goes up. Crisis of faith? It tanks.

Which even applies to the China and India EM secular wealth growth story.

Was an interesting article, I felt like sharing it.

Joe Fahmy was there in 1999, and here he explains why this isn't a replay of 1999.

I quit reading Fahmy for a couple years, but it turns out he's starting to post interesting stuff again. I'll have to re-RSS him.

He was around in 1999, so he can tell you what that market was like in 1999. Here, read this entire article:

Joe Fahmy - stories from 1999. Hell, I'll just quote most of it for the lazier readers:

- Back in 1999, many of the companies that were trading at $100-$1000 had earnings of less than 0.50 cents per share. Some had no earnings and the metrics analysts used to value them were “clicks” and “eyeballs.” When you look at many of today’s high-priced stocks (MA, GOOG, PCLN, AAPL), these companies are earning $30-$50 dollars per share! BIG DIFFERENCE!

I'm sure, though, that someone will reply "hurr durr Facebook, hurr durr Tesla, therefore herp derp bubble". Because two stocks with major market dominance in growth fields is the same as an entire constellation of venture tech stocks in the late 90s.

- For about 6 months during the dot-com bubble, this was my strategy: At 10AM EST, I would buy the top 3 stocks on the point gainers list. The stocks were usually up around $3 at that time. I would leave the office, go to my morning meetings, have lunch, attend more meetings in the afternoon, and then come back to the office by 3:30PM to sell my stocks. Every stock was usually up between $10-$30. Again, this went on for months! Talk about complacency, huh?

Is that complacency around today? Frankly, the only market I've seen like that in my few years was the 2009-2010 gold stocks. Hey, wait....

- One friend who was on that trip got “option fever” and decided to open his first brokerage account (don’t worry, I explained options to him during halftime of the Monday Night Football game). He started with QCOM options in November 1999. The stock went from $200 to $400 in 2 weeks and his $10,000 deposit went to $50,000 in 7 trading days[...].

Do you know any market rookies who are trading options on stocks right now? That sort of craziness seems to be what you'd see in 1999. Sounds more like trading junior mining warrants... oh, wait....

- Another friend was trading a stock for 6 months and then one day it was up 40 points. He called me to ask what the news was and I told him they got FDA approval for one of their drugs. He paused for a good 5 seconds and said “OHHHH SHIT! They’re a BIO-tech company!…I had NO IDEA???” For the prior 6 months, he thought he was trading a semiconductor stock. He then said “Oh well, who cares, they’re all just letters and symbols, right?”

"Oh well, who cares, they're all just letters and symbols"?!? That sure sounds like complacency, right there. Sort of like being in 2010 and happily trading a known-to-be-valueless junior miner with a history of incompetence, OPUD and generous management compensation, instead of a well-managed company whose stock just doesn't fly up as fast. Oh, wait....

- I remember putting in a market order for 500 shares of a stock that was trading at $50. I didn’t get filled for 3 minutes and the stock moved to $55. I thought maybe my order never went through, so I cancelled it and placed another market order. Now the stock was at $60 and I still DIDN’T GET FILLED!!! I said to heck with this, cancelled the second order, and left it alone. At the end of the day, the stock was up $60 to $110, lol.

Does that sound like today's S&P 500? You seeing any fast markets in S&P stocks?

And this, to me, seems to be the key takeaway from Joe Fahmy, since Josh Brown has picked up on this too:

In fact, all my friends that I described in these stories currently HATE the stock market. I try to encourage them to invest for the long-term, but they have NO interest in getting involved. As I mentioned in my previous blog, I think people use the term bubble to describe today’s market because they are annoyed. They want the market to come down but it won’t, so they call it a bubble out of frustration.

I guess there must be a lot of people out there who didn't buy the Summer 2011 "imminent Euro breakup" crash, and are pissed off at how they missed the subsequent 60% advance in the S&P. Then they didn't buy the two 10% S&P 500 corrections in 2012 (I don't even remember what was happening back then), then they didn't buy the three teensy 5% corrections in 2013, and all the time the market has gone higher.

Germany's gone up 60% since summer 2012, UK 30% in the same period, Japan popped 30% in 6 months on Abenomics, and I bet a lot of doomers are pissed at having held PMs while the broad markets went up and the doom of coming worldwide economic collapse vanished.

So they call a recovering stock market a bubble.

They want the market to come down, but it refuses to.

Vehement agreement with Ritholtz

I'm in a chatty mood today, so I'll probably go thru the interesting news articles one at a time.

Ritholtz - am I too bullish? Ritholtz tries to clarify his point of view. For example:
First, our discussion on recent surveys of affluent investors revealing them sitting on $6 trillion and as much as 50 percent cash in their portfolios was about investor psychology. That pile of cash is not likely the result of carefully studied market history and astute observations of timing. Rather, it is most likely the result of fear. It has been a drag on portfolios for at least four years; it typically reflects a combination of poor planning and emotion.
And as for the CAPE crap, he has an important thing to point out to you:
But I keep bringing CAPE up in the context of confirmation bias. One should not cherry pick the valuation measure that supports a prior view to the exclusion of all other measures of what is dear. Indeed, as discussed back in August, Merrill Lynch’s quant team looked at 15 valuation metrics and concluded that stocks were not overvalued; by most metrics, they were fairly valued. My reasons for discussing CAPE was to critique newfound discoverers of Bob Shiller’s valuation metric who were attracted to it for all the wrong reasons. That sort of cognitive error cries out to be recognized.
It's entirely true and I've been screaming this at people for a while now too. Number one, if all the other metrics disagree with CAPE, why should you care about CAPE? What makes CAPE special? And number two, if all the other valuation metrics disagree with CAPE, why aren't you looking under the hood to see exactly why CAPE is disagreeing? Because you might learn something.

Next, comparing corporate profits to gross domestic product is a metric that has been used by bears for about a year now. But just like the flawed Fed Valuation Model, there are two variables involved. Mean reversion of that ratio does not have to occur only by an earnings collapse. If GDP were to accelerate on improved hiring or spending, that would also satisfy the mean reversion of that ratio.
If someone fails to comprehend the underlined sentence above, it means simply that he failed grade 8 math. A ratio can go down either because the numerator goes down, or because the denominator went up: if someone doesn't understand this, I block them forever off my reading list.

Ritholtz isn't a screaming bull, he's watching for downside: if you're mocking him for simplistic bullishness, then you've never bothered to read a damn thing he has to say.

UPDATE: I dunno why Ritholtz himself bothered to tweet a link to this post, cos it's not like I'm adding anything new. All I'm doing is agreeing with a post of his.

So to make it worth your while, here's a picture of Mila Kunis, who's a better stock market analyst than you because she quietly put her money in the market while all you clowns were still freaking out about impending Euro collapse and debt ceiling childishness and China doom and whatever:

You are looking at the woman who just whooped the ass of every hedge fund in the US.

On gold ETFs

Mineweb - blah blah gold ETFs suck. In case you haven't heard it before, here's the key:
“Gold ETPs are preferred by a lot of people because at the end of the day it’s easier to trade and easier to manage your portfolio,” said Francisco Blanch, the head of commodities research at Bank of America Corp. in New York. “And it’s probably cheaper. If you buy physical bars, you have the cost of the bar, but you also may have to pay for storage of the physical bar. The ETP does all of that for you.”
That is why gold popped to $1900, why it's since dropped back to $1200, and why the physics underlying today's gold market is completely different than the physics underlying the gold market pre-2003.

Try to imagine what would have happened to the gold price over the past six years if there had been no such thing as gold ETFs: I think it would probably have continued its slow boring upward trajectory, with no ETF-driven pop, and no subsequent ETF-driven crash. After all, Asian physical demand kept going up, and mine reserves kept going down, right?

The only thing that's different is that incompetent Republican hedge-fund fools were able to cheaply and simply buy old via ETFs for their misinformed "coming hyperinflation" play. Because I don't think they would have bought physical bars, and because the buying and cancelling of futures wouldn't have impacted underlying physical supply/demand.

That's my theory, anyway.

Tuesday video: go on, guess.

Yes, again, it's Evanescence, this time at Rock am Ring 2004, with "Bring Me to Life":

Sunday, December 15, 2013

Liisa Ladouceur interviews Spike and Drusilla

I was poking around reading up on gothy & industrially Canadian people of the early 90s, and came across a blog of Liisa Ladouceur. I remember she used to write articles everywhere, and was probably one of the 2 or 3 people in the Canadian music press who I thought was worth reading, and I used to have fun pronouncing her name weirdly cos of the two i's, and I think I even talked to her once and she had said she had met me...? Maybe it was through Ninth Wave?

No idea. Anyway, she's got a website about goth and vampires and stuff, even today, and here she is interviewing James Marsters and Juliet Landau (Spike and Drusilla from Buffy TVS) at what I guess is a convention or something:

Because after all you come here for the Buffy content and not the junior mining commentary.

Sunday video: Evanescence with "Bring Me to Life", about how gold miners suck™, live at Rockpalast

I'm sorry, but if you're going to wallow in your own pathos as you see your few remaining junior mining stocks go to zero in the pandemonium of tax loss selling to come, then you may as well wallow with Amy Lee:

Saturday, December 14, 2013

Saturday video: Evanescence, with "Bring Me to Life", a song about how junior mining sucks

I think I'll just keep posting different versions of this video, over and over again, all through tax loss season, just to drive home how much the mining stocks suck right now.

Here's Evanescence on Muchmusic:

Friday, December 13, 2013

Some Friday noonreading

Here's some stuff and junk:

BI - the case for a December taper. Which is a good thing because it means the extreme measures to support the economy can now end.

Financial Post - US economy in 2014 has more upside than many think. Geez Dave, if only you'd been bullish in 2009 instead of staying wrong for four years. Here's a quote:
But things actually are getting better. The Institute for Supply Management figures rarely lie and they are consistent with 3.5% real growth. Federal fiscal policy is set to shift to neutral from radical restraint and the broad state/local government sector is no longer shedding jobs and is, in fact, spending on infrastructure programs again.
So basically, Dave, your ability to understand the markets gets better when you quit shooting off your own idiot mouth and just quote what Bill McBride has been saying, for free, at Calculated Risk for the past fucking year, right? So you're admitting you have no clue and Bill McBride is smarter than you, right?

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - US stocks cheap by 12 of 15 valuation measures. But no, you go ahead and keep listening to clowns like Tom McLellan.

BI - China 2014 growth target fears. The argument now is that everyone's puking China cos they think the government's growth target is going to be revised down to 7% from 7.5%.

And here's a funny pic for you:

A Schadenfreude moment - Eric Sprott

This link was passed on to me by a vaguely famous newsletter writer who doesn't like offending the stars of the industry:

WSJ - gold drop is blow to prominent hedge fund manager Sprott.

(This seems to be paywalled sometimes and not paywalled other times - maybe WSJ lets you read one free article a month? Or maybe my employer has a subscription account with the WSJ? I dunno. If you google the title you can find partial reprints elsewhere.)

But here's a sad quote of sad sadness that's sad:

The flagship fund of prominent Canadian hedge-fund manager Eric Sprott has dropped more than 50% this year in what will likely be the third consecutive year of double-digit percentage losses, according to documents sent to investors.

Redemptions and weak performance have pushed down hedge-fund assets managed by Mr. Sprott to about $350 million from nearly $3 billion in 2008.

Ouch! That's a nearly 90% drop in AUM, much of which must have been driving the crash of the junior scene.

And, despite my normal ornery self, I'm willing to bet that this collapse in AUM has been reflected at all other junior miner funds - and even maybe the ports of junior scene mainstays like Sheldon Inwentash, or even that dude who blogs on the internet. How much of your own AUM is still in junior miners? With me right now it's zero.

And so what's happening to Sprott himself? The sad story of sad sadness gets even sadly sadder:

The poor results come with a personal cost: Mr. Sprott's investment company, Sprott Inc., which he founded in 1981, said last month that it is phasing him out of investment decisions.

By the end of next year, Mr. Sprott—who early in his career was a programmer for Merrill Lynch—will no longer directly make the firm's investment decisions, though he will remain chairman.

Sprott Chief Executive Officer Peter Grosskopf said that Mr. Sprott would also be handling "chief cheerleader duties."

Oh geez. A big-name goldbug is now tossed to the sidelines by his own fund, and relegated to "cheerleader"? Dudes, you're simply trying to piss him off here.

The company declined to make Mr. Sprott, 69 years old, available for comment.

Holy crap. This is like locking someone in the basement. They've locked Sprott in the basement, and will only let him out to dance around in a cheerleader outfit.

Mr. Sprott's losses exceed that and other precious-metals benchmarks, thanks in part to heavy exposure to volatile mining stocks and short exposure to international equities that have climbed this year, investor documents indicate.

Dafuq? The only way he could justify shorting international equities this year was if he thought there was imminent risk of global economic collapse. Which I guess is consonant with goldbug theory, but still - did he ever look at a chart? Did he ever notice that the market was going against him?

Did he ever listen to any news, or was he only paying attention to the Tea Party/Libertarian doomer echo chamber? Was he getting all his economic data from Max Keiser and Zerohedge?

It's one thing to be sure of yourself. It's another thing to remain sure as your port is annihilated. I mean, every clown on the Stockhouse boards has learned by now that if you're down large in a position, the best thing is to sell, take your losses, and stay on the sidelines until you see a reason to get back in. Is Eric Sprott a slower learner than Stockhouse posters?

It's one thing to be wrong. But it's a significantly dumber thing to stay wrong.

Unfortunately, the more arrogant and egotistical you are, the less likely you are to want to take a hit on your obviously wrong calls.

I wonder what Rick Rule thinks of his career change now?

Friday videos - Evanescence with "Bring Me to Life", a song for the junior mining scene (with lyrics)

I never really got into this band, but Amy Lee sure can belt, and they were about the only band to successfully play gothic operatic metal in the US, and I did really like this song.

What's more, it turns out that it's not a gothic metal love song after all. In fact, Evanescence wrote this song for the destruction of the junior mining scene! I mean, seriously, did you see the lyrics?

Here's the chorus:

Wake me up inside
Wake me up inside
Call my name and save me from the dark
Bid my blood to run
Before I come undone
Save me from the nothing I’ve become

and from the bridge:

Without a thought, without a voice, without a soul
Don't let me die here
There must be something more
Bring me to life

and if that didn't sell you on my thesis then just check out the coda (which you can hear on their Belgium-only live DVD):

the Venture exchange
is a lifestyle exchange
professional geologists are all jokers
and National Instrument 43-101 is their joke
we thought as long as there were Republicans
our scams could go on forever
but now all capital has fled
and now we lie, abject and forlorn, in a pool of our own shit

Thursday, December 12, 2013

So anyway, Ke$ha is a member of the Satanic Illuminati and drinks blood from a human heart

I just came across this, and it's very edumacational.

All about the Satanic Illuminati and Ke$ha.

Dunno if there's any hard currency advocacy in it, I haven't gotten that far yet.

Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Some enchanted evening news

Here's more stuff:

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - bullish sentiment is now officially embarrassing. So I guess a few days of incomprehensible market pukage is in order to reset the sentiment, eh? Probably everyone wanted to buy into the market to be positioned for the Santa Claus Rally that usually begins about now... so they just created a Santa Claus Rally that'll end about now.

Calculated Risk - looking for stronger economic growth in 2014. Bill McBride tends to repeat himself, which is good if you're also reading other blogs that pollute your mind with inessentials and lies. In this case, he reminds that the sequester drag is over, state & local austerity drag is over, and therefore some significant headwinds to US growth are gone.

BI - replacing aging capital stock is bullish. Here, read this:
"The last time the corporate sector allowed its capital stock to get this old and obsolete was back in 1958," wrote Rosenberg today. "The very next year, the annual growth rate in volume capital spending swung from -6% to +13.5%"

"Given the rate of depreciation, we typically need 4% real capex growth just to prevent obsolescence from taking hold; in the past five years, we have averaged less than 1% annual growth," he added. "With productivity growth now vanishing, with clear negative implications for profit margins if not reversed, the incentive to start plowing some of the cash hoard back into the real economy is running very high and is actually becoming increasingly evident in the recent business survey data. Revived capex growth is likely going to emerge as a key bullish cyclical theme for 2014."
Makes sense, no? I wonder who wrote thOMG IT'S THAT PERMADOOMER ROSENBERG!!!

Yes, that's right! The "massive repudiation of debt as a dishonest system comes apart at the seams" crowd's favourite doomer, David Rosenberg, whose opinions once carried some weight when they were consonant with the Ron Paul crowd, is now suggesting a multi-year period of fundamental, capex-driven US growth!

Bespoke - internet group breaks out. As they say, "a nice breakout above its sideways range to close at new highs".

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - strength begets more strength. Here's his quote of Jeffrey Kleintop:
Some may fear an outsized gain in the stock market during 2013, is surely to be punished with losses in the coming year. However, historically after a one-year total return in the 25 – 30% range, the S&P 500 has followed it up by more solid years of gains. In fact, the average return in a year following a 25 – 30% gain was 12%, and stocks posted a double-digit gain in four of the five occurrences (the exception was 1961’s gain of 26.9%, which was followed by a loss of 8.7% in 1962) [Figure 4]. In fact, most of the years were actually followed by several years of strong gains, as was the case in 1943, 2003, and 2009.
Or you can keep believing we're in an unsustainable bubble.

Reuters - Letta wins confidence vote, vows reforms. We'll see: with no Berlusconi, maybe Italian politics can become slightly more honourable for a few years. As an aside, do you remember all those clowns who were predicting a Eurozone breakup? You might want to look them up and ask them if they're still retarded.

Reuters - Congress Party vows to tackle inflation after drubbing. Yeah good luck with that you incompetent asshats.

IKN - Cookie's turn on the troubles with 43-101. It really looks like Cookie's suggesting you shouldn't bother with explorecos unless you are already so experienced in the business that you can tell the well-written reports from the bad ones.

Mining.com - Chilean miners turn to solar to ease energy crunch. Power was the limiting factor for Chilean mining growth, so this is interesting to see. I'd wonder about the cost-benefit, since last I checked solar generation is grossly costly; but I'm sure the miner in question already did the math.

Look at that follow-through in the miners, oh my!

Yeah, the miners really looked good yesterday, eh? Well, they're being sold right back down today.

Yup, the juniors too.

Any pop up is just an excuse to sell before the holidays.