Friday, December 14, 2012

John Kaiser with a "dark warning"

Kaiser went utterly nuclear on BNN today about the scumsucking JP Morgan and the Lizard People and their robots who suck all the capital out of the market.

Here's the link.

PS I bought my $100 trial sub, so I'll be checking out his site to see if there's value there.

Another funny SMBC today

Hey! That John Kaiser thing wasn't a joke!

Hey! Kaiser really is going to be on BNN today! On "Commodities with Andrew Bell Formerly of Erasure" at 11:30! It wasn't a joke!

Let's see if he really does says "DOOOOOOM!"

Friday videos - Of the Wand and the Moon, live

Someone managed to video Of the Wand and the Moon, opening for Death in June, in Denmark last year.

They're repetitive like Swans, yet melodic and jangly like Felt. And gawwwthy.

Good to see they don't do the "let's look cool by moving around on stage" schtick.

Thursday, December 13, 2012

A few more newsbits

BI - how to fix the deficit in one simple chart. Basically: reduce unemployment. But...! But...! That's Keynesianism!!!

Bespoke: and you thought today was a volatile year? Ha!

Biiwii - Gold:Euro breaking lower trend line. Yeah, thanks Gary. Thanks for telling everyone to sell gold.

Biiwii - oh and also, the Venture's going to 0. Yeah: again Gary, thanks. You're really helping out here.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Debt ceiling on InTrade - a ZeroHedge article

ZeroHedge - the odds of a debt ceiling deal by year end have plummeted to 16% on InTrade.

My opinion? Good. The Bush Tax Cuts were a fucking stupid fuckup that fucked up the US fucking fiscal position. Get rid of them. Tax the rich. Then the deficit disappears and the fucking Rethuglicunts have nothing to complain about.

Also they're fucktards.

Dammit we took our eye off India again

Dammit dammit dammit

Marketwatch - Indian gold demand revised upward by 23% OMG WTF

I keep paying attention to bullshit instead of supply-demand fundamentals.

I need to delete a couple dozen more RSS feeds.

Jojo interviews John Kaiser

Jojo interviews John Kaiser, who hates exploration companies and wants them all to die.

Note that Calibre Mining has $4M in capital, a rich big brother, several prospective targets that Clive Johnson from BTO calls "a possible porphyry swarm", and so stop selling their fucking shares!

Hey, remember Rye Patch Gold?

So if you'll remember, I said during my Cambridge Toronto review that several people were all bullish on Rye Patch Gold. They figured RPM was a shoe-in to win a court case defending their right to squat on someone else's mine.

Since then?

Good call, guys! You top-ticked RPM!

Kaiser on BNN Commodities friday

Ha ha, bakeapples made a funny.

He said John Kaiser's going to be on BNN on Friday.

He said here's a preview.

Then he posted this:

Why don't I just hand this blog over to you guys.

And to think I coulda had Molycorp

This looked like such an awesome deal at $6.

Turns out it was.

Is it still an awesome deal?

You've seen it before - bear flags in the $HUI and GDXJ

Here's the $HUI and GDXJ, with things marked on them in crayon:

The green lines delineate the "bear flags" that you've already become familiar with: it slowly and painfully claws its way up from the -2SD Bollinger band, then just when you think the coast is clear it collapses back down into the pits of despair.

The red arrow indicates my world-weary response: "oh look, it went up to the short EMA and Bollinger mean again. So it'll probably fail again."

Looks like Gary's $HUI 420 is still in the cards, except for it to get there now it'd either have to grind down slowly, or punch through in a vicious selling puke that goes -3SD.

Wouldn't touch GDXJ under $22.50 here, and even if it went over I'd expect a pullback.

Some light reading you can probably skip

There's no really important news today.

Oh, except for one thing... you can go triple-short silver at 2:14, then triple-long about 15 minutes later. Why? Bernanke's beard will be within 10cm of a microphone.

So here's the news:

Calculated Risk - Wednesday FOMC Meeting. The timeline for the day's precious metals trading is all laid out there for you!

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - We've driven retail out of stocks! Mission accomplished! I dropped him from my RSS a while back, but posts like this remind me that I do miss his jaded take on things like this.

Bloomberg - Google's profits sheltered in tax-haven Bermuda. What a fucking shithole of scum and villainy. I hope they get fucking prosecuted under RICO, the fucking scum-bag thieves and kleptocrats. And let's see how long this post survives on Google-owned Blogger.

And one for Otto:

Beyond Brics - Colombia, Peru cheer EU free trade deal. Otto might be interested in the part where they talk about booze. Then again, I'd expect domestic Peruvian booze is cheaper than imported, even without duties (which from my own Canadian experience are never eliminated with a "free trade deal"), and I doubt he's all that picky.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Exercise in close reading for you

BI - Buffett, Soros ask for a higher estate tax. The important thing here is the statement:

If the White House and Republicans don't reach a deal, however, the estate tax rates are set to revert to Clinton-era levels, when estates valued at more than $1 million were taxed between 37 percent to 55 percent.

Yet another real, underlying, unstated reason why the rich are against letting the US go off the fiscal cliff. Add that to the increase in dividend and cap gains taxes. Now you know the real opinion of every single talking head.

Y'know, when I look at the "fiscal cliff" deal that was made earlier this year, I really gotta say those Republicans really fucking screwed the pooch in an epic way. I mean, this was the deal:

Osama Fartbongo: Hey, let's set up this deficit commission so that if we don't come to a solution, a bunch of sequesters and tax increases automatically take hold. Good idea, eh? Oh plus the Bush tax cuts expire.

Republicans: Hey, great idea! Then you'll have to cave in or we'll have you over a barrel!

Osama Fartbongo: Yas'm I sho' will hafta gib y'all egga-zackleh wut 'choll wawn, mastuh! (Heh heh heh....)

God, those Republicans were played like fucking morons.

Which they are.

Thus proving... well... that the Republican Party has become a party of morons.

Happy 68th birthday, Teri Garr

She's 68 now, easily old enough to be my mom, but Teri Garr was still (I think) one of the cutest and sexiest hotties of the 20th century.

So here's a collection of her appearances on David Letterman. Which I never missed. Because even at a young age I still had a heck of a thing for her.




Again 1987, cos you can tell Letterman really had a thing for her:

And OMG, at 45 she was doing commercials for panties:

Monday, December 10, 2012

This time, four charts not two

The trick with this post will be for you to look at these four charts in order and see the relative performance change from one to the next.

 By now you're probably inured to looking at the GDXJ chart and concluding it looks fucking dismal. OK, no problem there, we'll go with that for now.

Interesting, eh? The silver miners don't look nearly as dismal!

What the hell? Copper miners don't look even remotely dismal? They've lost nothing since 1 October! Why not? I mean, aren't we supposed to wharrgarbl depression wharrgarbl deflationary spiral wharrgarbl global growth collapse?

I mean, on the gold-silver-copper continuum, what does copper traditionally represent? I'm not saying the continuum is still true anymore, but what does copper traditionally represent?

I shouldn't even fucking have to say anything about this last one, but just to make sure it sinks the fuck in I'll give you a chart.

EEM Country Breakdown

Country Percentage
China 19.01%
South Korea 14.04%
Taiwan 10.96%
Brazil 10.46%
South Africa 7.41%
India 6.94%
Russia 5.73%
Mexico 5.13%
Malaysia 3.57%
Indonesia 2.37%
Other 14.38%

Hint: those first four countries are China.

Keep it simple: two and only two charts

Here's the Shanghai exchange:

Looks healthy, eh? It's flown above its Bollinger mean and short-term EMA with conviction.

Now assume the Shanghai is a proxy for wealth creation in China- not the FXI which is full of SEOs, not the other ETFs which are full of the few stocks roundeyes are allowed to buy, but the $SSEC with its domestic-only stocks.

Assume also that Chinese buy at least 21% of world gold production. Because it's fucking true is why.

Now look at gold:

Do you see?

Gold also has three up days in a row.

Not as strong because India is topping out right now and they also buy a significant share of gold production. But still.

Now tell me where that 30s/2s spread is in all of this.

Sunday, December 9, 2012

More pondering of Kaiser and the Great Extinction

So as I was saying earlier this week, I find it intriguing to think about the imminent Kaiser Extinction - where several hundred explorecos are about to disappear off the face of the earth.

The idea is, there's a load of companies out there with nothing to show for several years of "exploration"; they can no longer finance without it being prohibitively dilutive, some can't finance cos of the 5-cent rule, and now they have so little money left at bank that they can't even afford the cost of quarterly Venture filings and a P.O. Box. In the words of Brent Cook, who's been a big proponent of Kaiser Extinction Theory, they're "just going to... [dramatic pause] go... away...."

Now, here's the thing.

OK. If all you can show for 3 years of hookers and blow exploration is a VTEM conductor or a soil sample, then sure. I get it. You have nothing, you'll continue to have nothing, the door has closed on your continued existence, pack it in.

But there are also companies out there who have seen their market cap collapse, but who do admittedly have deposits that should be worth something. In some world, maybe not this world, but in some world.

Why is the Great Kaiser Singularity occurring? If it's because the capital markets are scared of a US recession, a Euro depression and a China collapse, then I can see why nobody considers a property worth pursuing anymore if its break-even point is $2.50 CU or $1400 Au.

But if the US has already bottomed and is going to start growing strongly this year, and if the Euro has already hit bottom and will begin to see improvement soon, those two things alone should create enough aggregate demand to bring China back up to >8% growth, no? In which case all of a sudden China is fine again. And then the rest of the world is fine again.

In which case we get back to thinking that demographic-driven demand growth will continue, and with the supply contraction that's happening we get back to assuming inflationary pricing for PMs and base metals.

Point being, if a company has been slaughtered down to a $5M market cap, but you've got some analyst who swears up-and-down that e.g. no really honestly at $3 Cu this property is worth $500M on buyout, then really, they shouldn't "just go away", should they? Cos they have something of value. Just not of value right now with all the worries about the world economy.

So if I'm the CEO or director at some exploreco with a property that definitely is worth a hell of a lot more than the market's giving us credit for, and I see the bank is down below $200K, why wouldn't I offer to privately finance the company, for say a $200K placement, even at twice the present share price with no warrant? It keeps the company going for a year, after which time we'll have a better read on whether the world economy has moved back into growth mode.

Even if it's only a 40/60 chance that we move back to strong world growth in 12 months, and I finance at twice the price, I only need a 5-bagger to even out the risk-reward. And there's a heck of a lot of companies out there who would be 5-baggers if the damn world economy just turned around, no?

And I'm saying it's a lot more than a 40/60 chance that the world economy is better 12 months from now.

So really, if there are any tuppence-ha'penny explorecos out there that really definitely have a deposit of value, then now would be precisely the time to gobble up their shares, no?

(Of course this thought process didn't stop me from selling my 7-cent AQM shares for 10 cents on Friday... but you get the point.)

Some newsitems

der Spargel - light at the end of the Eurotunnel. Since the Eurozone is something like the developed world's third largest economy (dunno where you'd fit Japan, but it's not like they're going anywhere anyway), what does it mean to export demand in the US and China (and even Mexico) if the EZ economy has bottomed? Hm?

BI - Weezie's happy to see the Euro plunged. It's a very interesting point that proves that Wiesenthal has his head screwed on right: the Euro reacted to the ECB policy announcement the way it should have. Which also indicates the EZ is out of crisis mode.

Now if only Business Insider could get rid of those fucking idiot lamestream-media neo-Nazis who "write" for them like Pethokoukis, Richter, Doug Short and so on, they might have a decent reliable newsfeed that people would profit from following.

And two on gold:

FT Alphaville - on Goldman and the gold price. It touches on Tanashian's idea that OT artificially capped the price of gold; it always sounds like a conspiracy theory when he says it, but the basic argument (from Goldman) is expounded on in this article. I don't pretend to understand it, and I think the argument only applies to gold futures and not the physical market, and I still think real supply and demand should be a strong counter to the paper market; but it's enough to make me stop and think.

And that article references this:

Krugman - Treasuries, TIPS and gold. From last year. Still wonkish but relevant. Though as some commenters on these articles note, the "choke price" seems to be one of those things that magically appears when you doodle economics formulas on a napkin, and not something that can actually be tagged and collared in real life.

I don't pretend to fully comprehend either of those two articles, but since the internet's started talking about them, I think we'll find further, deeper explanation soon.