Saturday, March 17, 2012

Tonight's movie - Game Change

I'll be watching Game Change tonight.

Nothing more fun than watching idiots make fools of themselves.

Friday, March 16, 2012

Aw heck, more Daniela.

Here's Our Daniela interviewing Neil Woodyer from Endeavour, about stability in West Africa, and how he's not worried about gold prices.

And here's an interview with Brien Lundin, where he says he prefers silver to gold right now.

And here she interviews Glenn Nolan, incoming president of PDAC, who fails to suggest that next year PDAC will hold its convention somewhere better than the fucking MTCC, with its recycled air and hideously expensive food court, where everyone comes back with the flu for 2 weeks.

I mean really... I didn't come back with a cold this year, but I've been fighting a nasty low-level malaise for 2 weeks now that also (frighteningly) included a short spell where I had a piercing headache across the spot where the skull connects to the spine.

Brent, Mickey and Daniela and a big whopping pile of silver

Speaking of which, here's the Brent & Mickey interview, which didn't happen at the Duke of Winchester (which doesn't exist) or the Duke of Westminster either.

There's a nice shiny pile of silver behind them. Unfortunately it's McEwen's.

And I'm assuming what they have in their glasses is a couple of the MTCC's $3.50 bottles of apple juice.

A special "Mercenary Musing" from Mickey Fulp

Mickey Fulp's "Mercenary Musings" are free, so go subscribe. I generally don't pay attention to his exploreco picks since I've kinda gotten fed up of the associated risk; but this week he has a nice history/geology letter.

It's called "Has the Earth Ever Ran Out of a Natural Resource?", the answer is yes, I had forgotten about it but you might never have heard of it, and the answer involves, as Mickey puts it, "massive populations of boobies".

So since this is the only time you'll see an exploration geologist say "massive populations of boobies", one of the few times you'll see an exploration geologist say "massive popu one of the frequent occasions you'll see an exploration geologist mention "massive populations of boobies", you should maybe go subscribe and read it.

UPDATE: I just checked Google, and this post is the very first time ever that the phrase "massive populations of boobies" was written on the internet. Don't laugh, this is a rare and solemn occasion.

Friday videos: King Crimson

King Crimson from the live in Japan video, doing the 1980's version of Larks Part 2.

Thursday, March 15, 2012

Market comment - is it over now? Can we go back to making money?

Teh stoopid seems to have worn off, today. Silver up gold up junior miners up. I think people want to buy them now. TLT and IEF have stopped collapsing.

Oh by the way - remember when US treasuries had their yields driven down so low? Wasn't that just because they were the last safe haven during a European implosion? Y'know - the one that never happened?

So go chart IEF and TLT in weeklies, and see how we're still very safe.

No wait, I'll do it for you:

So yeah, upward trend is starting to reverse, but it's not like it's Treasury DOOOOOM or anything.

Oh, and re China "hard landing": if you read what the analysts are saying, and not just the headlines, "hard landing" is being defined as below 6% growth. Y'know... sustainable growth.

Copper and zinc call bullshit on the market insanity of the past while.

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Hey, something to like about Jeff Berwick

Here's the disclaimer to the Batero report what come outta Dollhouse Vigilante, that Otto Rock stole and linked to today:

"The Dollar Vigilante needs no disclaimer. Everything we say here is what we believe. Furthermore we need no disclaimer because we believe that all nation states, governments, securities agencies or other legislative bodies are illegitimate and we do not recognize them nor believe we need their permission to say what we feel about any topic and frankly think it is hilarious that people think a government body should be there to protect them.
However, because we know that all manner of Government agencies will come after us just for showing such disdain for them we are going to include a standard, cookie-cutter disclaimer below just to keep them off our backs. Enjoy reading it, bureaucrats at the SEC.

That is definitely a fun intro to a disclaimer. Good smash-the-capitalist-system attitude. Very Bob Black. Too bad about the whole Ayn Rand thing though.

Batero - swandive into a faceplant, and then an anvil falls on him

I just wasted an hour skimming through the BAT 43-101, at the prodding of some nogoodnik whose identity should be pretty obvious.

That Cumbre deposit, with a 0.3g/t shell, is still worth a bit.... 2Moz Au or so. And there are higher-grade areas in there, since past drills yielded a few metres of 1g/t or so. It's a plug, so the strip sucks, but not at the start. So BAT going for $10/oz seems a bit silly.

That was my impression, anyway.

Anyway, it doesn't matter, because of this:

Doesn't matter what I think, cos the market thinks something else. I have learned to avoid falling anvils. Well... not this week of course.

Silvercrest on TV

I bought Silvercrest a couple years ago, around $1.10 or so. Dumped it when construction delays (if I remember) tanked its price 20 percent. Oh well, dumb me.

Here's Scott Drever from Silvercrest on BNN chatting about stuff.

I'm back into SVL now. Saw them at their booth at PDAC and they were very excited and stuff. Figured "well, they pulled off a Fortuna, maybe they're good to buy."

Horrible nuclear reactor incident kills millions

Oh. My. Gawd.

A horrible nuclear reactor incident in... Denmark, yeah that's it, just killed... millions, yeah that's it.

Seriously dude. What the hell? Why did you just puke uranium by 6% or so?

Don't puke the cake with your brussel sprouts, boy.

Reuters India news re: gold

So... gold should go down, because... the Indians who buy 25% of it are... buying?

Wait... what?

MUMBAI (Reuters) - India gold fell about a percent on Wednesday afternoon, extending losses for a fourth straight session, spurring deals from physical buyers as the peak wedding season neared, dealers said.

* The most-active gold for April delivery on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) fell 0.9 percent to 27,581 rupees. The contract shed 0.58 percent in the previous three sessions.

* Currently wedding season is underway in India, the world's biggest buyer of bullion. Festivals will also take place until May.

* "Deals are happening as prices have come down to 27,500 rupees ... all are waiting for the budget on Friday," said Mayank Khemka, managing director, Khemka International in Delhi.

* Overseas gold fell for a third day as weaker equity markets and stronger dollar weighed on sentiment.

* Silver also fell following gold. Silver for May delivery on the MCX was 0.69 percent lower at 57,855 rupees per kg.

It'll be instructive to see what happens to the miners today. And especially so, the silver miners.

Cos... um... silver's an industrial metal, no matter what Sprott says.

Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Bespoke is an invaluable source because....

Bespoke Investment Group is utterly invaluable because of articles like these:

Avoid Low Volume Rally at Your Own Risk

Don't listen to ZeroHedge idiots when they're saying "oh, the market's going up but on no volume"

If you only traded the above-average volume days on the S&P 500, you would have lost 81% in the past 2 years.

Yeah. Go read the article, bitch. Below-average volume means the market is going up.

Fuck ZeroHedge. They cry because they're losing.

Quick comment on an interesting turn of events

Silver down, gold down... yet GDXJ up?

Even stranger... GDX up?!?!?!?

NASDAQ happy-juice must be spilling everywhere.

Won't sell while this divergence continues.

Sunday, March 11, 2012

Ron Paul, anti-war, versus Michelle Bachmann

Completely off-topic. But I'm waiting for the last installment of the Don Cherry miniseries, so I'm poking around YouTube for a few minutes.

Please try to survive the first minute of this video (Michelle Bachmann is a fucking twit, yes, and she's not even as fun as Sarah Palin is, yes). Then listen to Ron Paul talk about US foreign policy.

I am not a Rondroid. But I still love this guy's fresh-air take on foreign policy. He would destroy the USA with some batshit gold standard scheme. But I love his foreign policy.

Candente writeup by National Bank

I picked up some propaganda at the Candente booth at PDAC, after getting brainwashed by the guy there.

Interesting thing in the National Bank writeup: they say DNT's going to run into problems with "industry bottlenecks".

"Owing to the large number of projects planned for development in the 2013-2016 period, execution and timing risk are perhaps more concerning to us than Capex creep. Peru appears especially vulnerable, with $30 bln in project development planned in the next several years."

I.e., good luck trying to develop any projects in Peru over the next few years, unless you have some magic wand that turns llamas into mining engineers.

I just checked the Dungeon Master's Guide and there's nothing of that sort listed.

Tiny note on clarity

One nice thing about a philosophy degree is you learn to define your terms. Unfortunately, this leads to the terrible side-effect of creating counter-arguments that essentially depend on niggling over definitions, which then leads to entire subfields of argumentation where people do nothing but try to establish what exactly it is that this-or-that-word means.

But at least it teaches you that the first problem with any argument is the use of language. No word has a hard-and-fast definition, no matter what a Platonist might say; language is a social construct, and so every concept really has a fuzzy boundary.

Anyway. I do keep trying to remind myself that senior gold miners aren't junior gold miners, juniors aren't developed properties, developed properties aren't advanced explorecos, and advanced explorecos aren't moose pasture peddlers.

I'm just bringing this up in reference to Brent Cook's suggestion that this year might be "brutal". There've been too darn many IPOs, too darn many financings, and too much paper is about to hit the market.

But brutal for who? Are junior miners like Argonaut or Rio Alto going to get hurt? Not if the price of gold stays healthy. What would make a senior miner like Goldcorp go downhill? Not so much the price of gold as escalating capital costs (making it impossible to bring new properties online). What about developed properties like Guyana Goldfields or Lydian? It'd be capital costs again that would be the problem - their property value is calculated based on $1200 gold anyway. Advanced explorecos like Sabina Silver? Well, again it's capital costs.

But it'd really be the moose pasture peddlers, who have absolutely nothing supporting their price, who would get clobbered by paper, and tight credit markets, and so on. I don't think Brent Cook would ever suggest that we have to worry about the future of B2Gold, for example - unless operating costs go through the roof or POG utterly collapses.

So, there you go. Short note on clarity. And maybe if any of it is correct, then the place to be this year is the junior producers?