Monday, January 14, 2019

workers finally getting raises

Bonddad - workers are finally getting raises. Trump should put a stop to this.

No seriously, that means the expansion should go on a few years longer.

Then again, everyone knows that the capitalist class will want to put a stop to this right away.

Sunday, January 13, 2019

oh god not Denise Donlon too, I like her

She's very much responsible for having kept MuchMusic from turning into crap for years as MTV blazed a path for the crappy future of music video stations, so I like her.

But oh shit, Denise Donlon now hangs out with Frank Giustra:

Gore Mutual - Denise Donlon blazing a path for change.


We’re really interested in your work with the Clinton Giustra Enterprise Partnership that brings entrepreneurial solutions to global poverty issues. Can you tell us a bit about the organization and how you got involved?

I was asked to produce an event in Toronto by Vancouver businessmen Frank Giustra and Sam Feldman that would celebrate President Clinton’s 60th birthday party, and it was a joy to be involved. It was an impossibly star-studded event with celebrities such as Billy Crystal, James Taylor, Jon Bon Jovi and Sarah McLachlan that raised $21 million in one evening. What I enjoyed learning about the Clinton Foundation was their deep understanding that solutions to some of the world’s biggest problems often requires public, private and political cooperation. And I loved working with staffers who were used to the pace of the West Wing. It was invigorating to say the least!

Or, Denise, you could go help the Carter Foundation, which actually cares about helping people, instead of a foundation whose boss promised Wall Street that she doesn't really give a shit about the working class, thus losing the 2016 election as all her supposed voters stayed home.

Friday, January 11, 2019

market decision?

I saw an article recently that suggested the selling is now being governed by algos that have all turned bearish.

If so...:

Then IWM should be turning back down at its SMA(50).

And so should QQQ.

I assume that first, $VIX has to drop to its SMA(200).

If, on the other hand, these indicators bust through their bearish SMAs, all the algos will have to flip back to bullish. And that will cause a faceripper rally.

Friday videos: Bangles vs Slayer

It's the Bangles and Slayer! It's two, two, two bands in one!:

Friday, January 4, 2019

What people don't get about the jobs number

1. The jobs number is a noisy dataset subject to revision, so only an idiot trades on the initial report.

2. Yes, the Fed pays attention to the jobs number, but they care more about wages, and care most about inflation. The relation between these is squishy to nonexistent nowadays.

3. Jobs lag in downturns. I.e., if you want to know if the US economy is softening, you look at any dataset except the jobs number.

4. If your interest is in economic indicators, why not look at the direct economic indicators like GDP or capital investment, instead of a secondary indicator like jobs?

Friday videos: Flock of Sabbath

It's Andy Rehfeldt again, doing musical satire the way only he can:

Tuesday, January 1, 2019

SPY and VIX for the new year

Some charts to start off 2019:

SPY has bounced, but it's been decelerating over the past couple days, and it's funny that it stopped right at the EMA(12). Is the drop not over yet?

In reality, there's utterly no reason to use the $VIX to develop inferences for upcoming SPY action, because even if $VIX drops to 20 and stays there, that's still sufficient for continued collapse of SPY.

Nevertheless, it's kinda spooky in a negative way that $VIX's upward path is being governed by an SMA. I haven't seen action like that in 10 years. So does it turn around and fly back up after it hits 22?

$VIX has already hit 36 this past month, which should say that the drop is done. The $VIX futures curve is already fully inverted through June. Then again, this might have been holiday positioning for people who wanted time off from the office.

Someone on the internet (so they must be right) said that the US action is just a reaction to the longer collapse in China and EMs that started last January. If so, the background narrative is still one of trade war and international instability causing a global slowdown.

Anyone expect that to end soon?

Well, if Trump were intelligent, he'd achieve a solution to the China trade situation before November 2020. Any solution, no matter how meaningless.

I still wouldn't be surprised to see $SPX drop all the way back down to the 2100 of the last presidential election. And then some.

Then again, a 20% correction is all that you need.

And it is rather idiotic to assume the Fed is going to engineer a US recession.

Friday, December 28, 2018

Friday video: well I had to

Hey, come on. The market is crashing worse than any time since the 2008 crisis. I have to play this: