Showing posts with label news. Show all posts
Showing posts with label news. Show all posts

Wednesday, July 9, 2014

Stuff


Was busy at work today. Here's some news:

Bespoke - stocks and bonds trading in unison. Last time it happened? 1980-2000. Good time to invest then, no?

New Deal Demoncrat - unemployment rate below 6% soon. With charts.

WSJ China Realtime - Chinese economy likely picked up in Q2. Um... dooooom?

Mineweb - Indian gold ETFs don't actually own gold. Oops.

Reuters - India has the best-ever onion harvest, now faces shortage of onions. Because they have no clue how to store goddamn onions over there.

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Some noontime noos


Here's some reading for today.


Calculated Risk - Tim Duy on inflation hysteria. I wouldn't call it inflation "hysteria", but rather just an informed awareness that slack has been taken up and the next topic for the market is going to be reflation to normalcy. However, Duy does make the good point that betting on increased inflation means betting against the Fed.


Tim Harford - on volatility. Quote:
No matter what the indicator, the story is similar: low volatility, low uncertainty and low dispersion are what happens in good economic times. Recessions are high-volatility, high-uncertainty and high-dispersion events. Low levels of uncertainty may breed complacency but they are also what the economy seems to need.
Or, more simply, $VIX is low because things are improving and the market is going up, dumbasses. Genius, eh? So where's my free fucking plug, Ritholtz?


NYT Upshot - the everything boom. Quote:
In this sense, high global asset prices could be the result of a world in which there is simply too much savings floating around relative to the desire or ability of businesses and others to invest that savings productively. It is a reassertion of a phenomenon that the former Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke (among others) described a decade ago as a “global savings glut.”
Which I agree with totally.
But to call it that may not get things quite right either. What if the problem is not too much savings, but a shortage of good investment opportunities to deploy that savings? For example, businesses may feel that capital expenditures are unwise because they won’t pay off.
If there's a shortage of good investment opportunities, it's because Big Capital has spent the last 12 years seeking rent (or simply hiding in tax havens) instead of investing in productivity improvements. Which kinda sounds like the endgame at the end of a secular bear market, no? I guess you kinda need that at the end of a secular bear before you can start to see capital move into productivity improvements to drive a secular bull, no? Does that not make sense?


FT beyond brics - pragmatism likely to prevail in India's budget. Geez, with all this speculation, there's a lot of room for disappointment, no?

Monday, July 7, 2014

Some Monday news


Here's some stuff to consider:

Calculated Risk - is inflation coming? He notes capacity utilization numbers historically don't necessarily correspond with high inflation.

Ritholtz - a correction is coming, so what? They happen, and they quickly reverse. Just don't listen to the clowns who argue that we're approaching a "blow-off top" or some such nonsense.

Calculated Risk - more on dorms counting as basements. Deeper analysis into the topic.

FT beyond brics - MNCs betting big on India. I guess that is a positive, and assuming Modi can get rid of Vodafone-style crucifixion of foreign multinationals then maybe the money continues to flow into India and they avoid an EM secular bear. I guess it depends on keeping the multinationals greedy enough to invest in a third-world dump instead of the good ol' USA.

IKN - World Cup forecast. I guess that's why he hasn't been posting for the past several weeks.


Sunday, July 6, 2014

Some Sunday reading


I don't normally pass on Sunday links, and it's to the chicken-and-egg point where I dunno if blog traffic disappears on weekends because of it, or if instead I haven't bothered posting cos there's no weekend traffic. But here's some stuff:

New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. Still no crash coming.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - fun with stock market hysteria. Where he has a laugh at financial media click-whoring.

The Atlantic - the misguided freak-out about basement-dwelling millenials. They're not living in basements - they're actually at university, which is counted as a "basement" for the purpose of the survey. Considering the jobs being created in the US are higher-paying ones, these kids will be making good money once they graduate.

Mining.com - BP hikes iron ore supply to destroy rivals. I remember a few years ago hearing an iron CEO say "we can produce iron at a profit at $30, we're not worried". So now a bunch of Chinese iron mines will be shut down.

Economic Geologist - Randgold CEO says "all-in sustaining cost" is bullshit. Also, the gold mining industry can't exist at $1300; therefore gold won't stay at $1300. I mean, look at scrap numbers - when has there ever been a time (in the modern era) when all physical gold on the market came from scrap? Therefore mines need to operate, therefore the price has to go up.


Saturday, July 5, 2014

Some weekend news


Here are a few significant newsbits for the weekend:


Liz Ann Sonders - sentiment is a mixed bag. She goes into all the sentiment indicators, and explains to what extent they actually matter when the market has been going steadily up for 6 frickin' years.

FT beyond brics - no sugar pill in India's budget. Despite how much Whitey loves Modi, the fact is there's no easy way to reform India.

Mining.com - Indian coal imports still rising. That hits their trade balance, and is therefore negative for gold.

Reuters - Jaitley says drought report no cause for panic. Therefore, panic.


Thursday, July 3, 2014

Some American Imperialist Day news


For some strange reason, when American Imperialist Day happens, they close the market on the afternoon the day before. Why? Isn't America all about stock markets?

Anyway, here's a bit of news:

Noah Smith - Austrian economics is a brain worm. This is too good an article for America:
The Austrian worldview is like a brain worm that has infected large swathes of our financial industry, commentariat and general public. Even you, dear reader, may carry one or two of its wriggling larva inside your gray matter.

When the Austrian brain-worm invades, you start believing things like: 1) Federal Reserve money-printing is a government plot to boost big banks, 2) prices are rising much faster than anyone thinks, 3) real “inflation” means money-printing, not an increase in prices, 4) printing money can never boost the economy, 5) academic economics is a plot to use mathematical mumbo-jumbo to cover up government giveaways to big banks, etc., etc.

The Austrian catechisms range from almost plausible (taking toxic mortgage assets off of bank balance sheets must have been part of the reason the Fed did quantitative easing), to somewhere in the neighborhood of the 9/11 truthers and moon-landing hoaxers. Most of the elements of Austrianism are so directly contradicted by data that the belief system practically screens itself for people who are out of touch with reality.


Bloomberg TV - Michael Shaoul on US inflation risk. He's actually positive about the commodities now, noting that Japan and the US and EU also use commodities. In fact, he thinks this is the start of another big commodity move like 2003-4. (Buy gold buy gold buy gold.) Other than that, he thinks the BLS data grossly underestimates wage growth as noted by corporations in their quarterly conference calls. And his favourite two equity sectors to play the inflation trend are commodities and semiconductors.


Reuters - monsoon strengthens after weakest start in 5 years. It's still not good for Indian gold demand, but whatever. Keep buying gold because America.

Monday, June 30, 2014

Monday morning reading


Most Canadians are off work today, since it's the day before Canada Day and there's nothing we like more than a four-day weekend.

Here are a few links:

Vagabond Journey - a journey to China's largest ghost city. Wherein we find out it's actually not a ghost city at all. As background:
I’d been chasing reports of deserted cities around China since last December, and I had yet to find one. Over and over again I would read articles in the international media which claim that China is building cities that are never inhabited only to find something very different upon arrival. The New South China Mall had a lot of empty shops but it turned out to be a thriving entertainment center, Dantu showed that an initially stagnant new city can become populated and come alive, and I found that Xinyang’s new district, a place called a ghost city since 2010, wasn’t even close to being built yet. 
Read the article, it's very enlightening. Basically, it seems the people who've been blathering about "ghost cities" have no idea what they're talking about.

Reuters - Modi eyes first labour overhaul in decades. Still a lot of talk but nothing actually happening. Are Americans buying on the talk?

Indian Express - monsoon expected in India by July 5th. Apparently the June rains aren't particularly important to total monsoon performance. With that in mind, the northeast is 80% deficient. You really should be watching this, mister goldbug.

Economic Times - el Nino intensity may be moderate. The hope for the monsoon is that el nino doesn't move until after monsoon season is done.

FT beyond brics - demographic risk threatens EM powerhouses. Demographics is the engine that powers economics. Ignore at your peril.

Mining.com - hedge funds add to bullish gold bets. I don't like this, because hedge funds are always wrong. What, have they run a supercomputer simulation to predict a good monsoon for India? No, they've just chased a strong gold move on Yellen talk. They will lose money and you don't want to hang out with them on the long side.


Sunday, June 29, 2014

Some weekend reading


Here's a few weekend newsbits:


New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. Everything is still fine except the oil price, which probably can't get any worse.

Bespoke - historical first half versus second half performance. In actuality, the supposed subpar market performance in midterm years hasn't happened since 1998. 2010 was +22%, and 2006 was +11.6%. So there's another old saw sent to the scrap heap.

WSJ Moneybeat - time to stick a fork in that 1929 chart. He means this one:


Yet another instance where Tom McLellan has been proven to be not just an utter moron, but a childish, simplistic, ignorant utter moron.

IFL Science - you have a better chance of being bitten by Luis Suarez than a shark. But only if you're a professional soccer player. And in any case, it's better to be bitten by Suarez: if you're bitten by a shark you die a gruesome death, whereas if you're bitten by Luis Suarez the worst that can happen is you look like a fucking crybaby when you go whine to the ref about it.

Like this:


What a fucking whiner! "Ooh look! I have a tiny fucking mark on my shoulder! Look at me!"

Hey listen, all you soccer whiners. These are injuries:




If you have to scream like a fucking toddler and stick your shoulder in everyone's face, then you're not bleeding. Fuck off.

And don't get me started on those whiners who lay there feigning death til the trainer comes with the fucking magical sponge. If I were the trainer I'd come out with a bottle of isopropyl alcohol and pour it out over your chafed balls to get your fucking attention.


Friday, June 27, 2014

Some noontime noos


Here's some stuff to read, or else:

Ritholtz - single variable market analysis is for fucktards. You can not look at one single number and say "aha! therefore doom!". Why not? Because economies and markets have hundreds of different inputs, all fighting against each other. It's about as stupid as saying "if you eat a carrot, you'll live to 100". Anyone who simplifies everything down to one figure is a moron and you should block their website.

Data Dive - here's why it's so hard to land a job. The thesis at the end about social networks is demonstrably bullshit (ask a sociologist - the whole "atomization of society" wank died in the 90s with Douglas Coupland's career). But they do make one important observation: difficulty in finding a job has nothing whatsoever to do with a "skills mismatch", which really is just a Republican bugaboo intended to blame the poor for being poor. Why are we sure there's no "skills mismatch"? Because if there was one, the people with the skills would see their pay skyrocketing.

Bloomberg - EM ETFs show biggest premium since 2012. I dunno... if you're paying a 0.2% premium to buy something grossly liquid like EEM, I'd have to wonder if you're buying at the wrong time.

FT beyond brics - Modi's biggest challenge. Again, Jim O'Neill says it's easy for India to improve its growth - just quit doing stupid things. Too bad, then, that they have to try to quit doing stupid things with the secular credit cycle against them. As well as this:

Reuters - monsoon revival seen in early July. Rainfall has been about 40% below average so far this season, which spells doom if it carries on through the summer. Thing could improve in July, of course. But if the Indian Ocean dipole sets up the way the Japanese have recently predicted, that could cause even more trouble.

And by the way - the last time the summer seasonality for gold didn't show up was during the last Indian drought. But of course Indian farmers have nothing to do with the gold price, right?

Mining.com - mining costs in Chile versus a decade ago. I guess the secular commodity cycle has this going for it - where in the world is it getting cheaper to mine anything?

Reuters - US brokerage must pay athletes $13.7M for Ponzi fraud. Hey, shitty gold explorecos could easily raise a heck of a lot of capital in private placements. Just find a few thousand rich people who suffer from poor judgment and impulsivity due to post-concussion syndrome.


Thursday, June 26, 2014

WILL FRIK ELS PLEASE QUIT RIPPING OFF THIS BLOG: here's what you need to know


Two afternoon reads:

Calculated Risk - the future's still bright. McBride drills down into US demographics to show how important it is for the next few years.

Mining.com - China finds massive $80B hole in gold financing. Geez Frik, do you live on the west coast or something? You should wake up earlier, then you could break these stories before me.


GOLD ABOUT TO COLLAPSE: here's what you need to know


Here are some morning links:


BI - China finds $15 billion tied to fake gold deals. As predicted here, long before the WGC, a big chunk of China's gold imports were not due to physical demand, but was actually destined for financing collateral, and it's all coming apart. Quote:
Spot checks on 25 companies that process bullion, such as jewellers, showed they made a combined profit of more than 900 million yuan by using the bank loans to take advantage of the difference between onshore and offshore interest rates, as well the appreciation of the Chinese currency, according to a report published this week on the National Audit Office's website.

Chinese firms could have locked up as much as 1,000 tonnes of gold in financing deals by the end of 2013, the World Gold Council said in April, indicating a big slice of imports has been used to raise funds due to tight credit conditions, rather than to meet consumer demand.

At current prices, that would be worth about $42 billion.
The trick is to now figure out what that does for future gold demand, especially given a possible poor monsoon in India.

Oh, and by the way: this story hasn't yet been posted on Zerohedge. Why not? Hm? Any idea?


FT Alphaville - when commodity collateral shenanigans go wrong. Izzy Kamizzy jumps on the China gold collateral story. She thinks it'll have more of an impact on dollar liquidity in China.


FT Beyond Brics - speculating on Modi's budget. Well, he seems to want to talk directly with foreign companies to address their problems with locating in India, and that's good.


Gold Report - Lawrence Roulston interview. If you're interested.


Monday, June 23, 2014

Monday morning news


Here are some points to ponder:

Ritholtz - the market is frustrating the majority. Quote:
Economists are unhappy because they do not know what to believe: this month’s forecast of a strong economy or last month’s forecast of a weak economy. Technicians are unhappy because the market refuses to correct and gets more and more extended. Foreigners are unhappy because due to their underinvested status in the U.S., they have missed the biggest double-play (a big currency move plus a big stock market move) in decades. The public is unhappy because they just plain missed out on the party after being scared into cash after the crash. It almost seems ungrateful for so many to be unhappy about a market that has done so well. … Unhappy people would prefer the market to correct to allow them to buy and feel happy, which is just the reason for a further rise. Frustrating the majority is the market’s primary goal.
Sounds descriptive of today's market, eh? That was written in 1989. How'd the market do in the ensuing ten years? Have you shut up and bought SPY yet, Barry?

New Deal Demoncrat - consumer credit is not a leading indicator, dumbass. Where NDD points out that Joey the Weasel is a dumbass for thinking consumer credit is a leading indicator when in fact it's a lagging indicator.

Liz Ann Sonders - on credit and debt. Lots of great charts from Liz Ann Sonders, who you should read religiously, not just because she's a babe.

Humble Student of the Markets - this turnaround in gold stocks is nothing. Because there's no inflation, he says. Sorry guy, but Shaoul says there is, and he's smarter than you. In any case, who cares? The turnaround in gold stocks could just be because of June-September seasonality, and if so, it's a guaranteed 50% win.

BI - Wall Street thinks inflation is coming. I don't care if it really is, I just want to be ahead of Wall Street on this play, and thanks to Shaoul, I am.

Saturday, June 21, 2014

Two weekend reads


Here's two things to ponder this weekend:

New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. Real M1 and real M2 are both strong, and rail is exceptionally strong. You'd want to invest in the US stock market right now if it were not for:

PS Dave - 'tis the season to make money on gold miners. Wherein we are shown this chart:


Even in a down year (like the last three) you can turn a 40%-60% profit in the junior golds in three months. Hey, looks like you even get a down period in August to reload before the final leg up!

So screw the US market: go all-in on the junior golds for a couple months, keep an eye on the short-term EMA and sell on the violation if you want to get cute, load back up in August, sell at the September peak, and viola!

Hey by the way... I wonder if this "seasonality" business has anything to do with India?


Wednesday, June 18, 2014

Five mid-day reads


Here's some reading:

Calculated Risk - LA port traffic increasing. Imports are still going up, so the US economy is growing.

Calculated Risk - architectural billings increased in May. So, again, the US economy is growing.

Ritholtz - on sentiment being bullshit. It's fine to track sentiment, he says, as long as you realize it only works at extremes, and not every single frickin' day.

Bloomberg - Citic lost some of its alumina in Qingdao. Why exactly is this bearish base metals, btw?

The Economist - clarifying China's corporate debt. That $14T figure you're reading about today is bullshit. So that gives you an idea of which otherwebsites and RSSes you can unsubscribe from, to avoid being suckered by lies in the future.


Tuesday, June 17, 2014

Three extra reads on emerging markets


Found some more stuff:


Ritholtz - US or EM? Wherein he posts this chart:


And then he says "aw hell, EMs gotta mean revert someday, no?" Which is a nice theory, as long as you completely ignore the problems of money flows, inflation and debt.

By the way, Barry... that chart? Above? If you want to talk about mean reversion of trends, that chart seems to have a dataset of three trends over 25 years. A dataset of three isn't much to go on.


FT beyond brics - Modi's challenge: manufacturing jobs. If only India was able to manufacture anything that the rest of the world would want to buy.


New Yorker - Vancouver's international housing market. I like the euphemisms:
And Vancouver, which has a large Chinese population, easy access to the Pacific Rim, and nice weather, has become a magnet for Chinese investors looking for insurance against uncertainty.
Well, yes, "uncertainty". As in, some minor government official feels uncertain that he'll be able to avoid getting executed once the Party figures out that he's embezzled $100 million.


WHY DOES EVERYONE HATE THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY?: here's what you need to know


Hooray! Managed to post this before the power goes out from the thunderstorm!


Pragmatic Capitalism - the most hated economic recovery ever. He has a large amount of charts and data that show how much the whiners are off-base. Especially interesting is how industrial production is "almost 1% above the 40-year average of 2.4%". Sorta shows how much the paleoconservatives are lying about "industrial stagnation", eh? But you should expect this sort of complaining; after all, Obama is black, he can't be successfully leading America!


Bespoke - 10Y yield testing resistance. We'll see what happens to equities then.


Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - solar stocks break out. Too bad there's no Canada-listed solar ETF, as far as I know.


Mineweb - amid high inflation, gold gains in India. Wait, what's this I see here?:
"In India, headline inflation shot up in May to 6.01% to a five month high and as macro pressures appeared to accentuate, the rupee has breached the 60 to the dollar mark, at a one and a half month low. The worrying part is that the high inflation number has come now even before the projected weak monsoon has played out,'' said Satheesh Mathur, analyst with a brokerage house.

He added that since gold is a safe haven investment, it saw a firming trend and reclaimed the $466 (Rs 28,000) mark on the domestic front.
Wait a sec... there's high inflation in India? And Indians buy gold to protect against inflation? Um... has anyone told Wall Street Whitey?


IKN - Peru GDP: luck runs out. Wait, what's this he says?:
Peru got lucky and has rode the high margins from commodities for a while, but now the luck has ran out they have no special formula, no secret sauce, nothing but a few prayers to offer to the copper price Gods. Far from creating some new and fanciful growth miracle, Peru is falling into the same classic traps of shoring up a reduced margin primary growth export model with expanded credit.
No shit, eh? Sounds like the classic definition of a secular EM bear cycle, eh?


Mining.com - iron ore crashes through $90. Which I guess is good for China's economy, since they use so much of it. This is the disconcerting bit:
Estimates vary wildly but the portion of iron ore and copper stockpiles at the country's ports tied up in these deals could be as high as 60%.

Last week's revelation that authorities are probing whether traders at the port of Qingdao pledged the same copper, iron ore and aluminum inventories as collateral for loans multiple times to different banks could mean and end to practice altogether.
Disconcerting for copper (let's be honest, we don't give a damn about iron ore miners, do we?), but also disconcerting if you suspect 2000t of gold has been tied up as financing collateral, not bought by the Chinese central bank because fiat Weimar Zimbabwe.

Monday, June 16, 2014

Three evening reads


Three evening reads for you:

Investing Caffeine - the Shiller PE is bullshit. Yet another article explaining to you why you should ignore anyone who blathers about the Shiller PE. Hopefully you started ignoring it yourself months ago.

FT beyond brics - the great EM divide. The author asserts that China is not an EM and you shouldn't expect it to act like one. Again, relevant argument against blindly applying the EM/DM thesis.

FT beyond brics - Indian inflation feels the heat. India is screwed, and it's because they don't damn well export a damn thing and subsidize fuel consumption.

DON'T DO IT, LANA! WE LOVE YOU!: here's what you need to know


Here's the Monday morning news:

Calculated Risk - here's what the Fed will do. OK? So no surprises. So no goddamn hammerblow torque to the markets is necessary.

BI - emerging market debt seems risky. Again, the very basic fact is that a DM bull causes an EM bear, and this article explains exactly why.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - here's where the inflation is. He links to the above BI article. Josh must read my blog, because I've been explaining that inflation is high in EMs for half a year now. So here's the trick question, Josh: who buys gold? Is it sinking in yet?

Reuters - rupee hits one-month low as oil, inflation hurt. The long-Modi crowd is beginning to realize why you sell the election news and go back to the sidelines: whatever Modi's going to accomplish, he's not going to accomplish it in a week. Meanwhile, India's economy is still India's economy. Their trade balance still gets destroyed by oil shocks, and their growth is still below inflation.

The Guardian - Lana del Rey says "I wish I was dead already". Don't do it, Lana! You know we'll all still love you when you're no longer young and beautiful! We'll all still love you when you've got nothing but your aching soul! You know we will! You know we will! You know we wi-i-i-i-i-ill! Also, marry me.


Saturday, June 14, 2014

A few Saturday reads


Here's a bit of stuff for reading this weekend:


Liz Ann Sonders - stealthy, silent and sustainable. Here's the summary:
US stocks should continue to move generally higher although activity may remain sluggish through the summer and the possibility of a correction is elevated as per both seasonal/election cycle tendencies and elevated optimistic sentiment. The U.S. economy should help support the market as signs are increasing that we may be entering the long-waited for self-sustaining expansion. The ECB's actions weren't game changing but are helpful and European equities look attractive, while we believe the worries over a Chinese slowdown are overblown.
So turn off the TV, quit reading Business Insider and ZeroHedge, quit piddling yourself and just buy the damn S&P 500. Or as Liz says:
Worries about investor complacency, as seen in the continued low levels of volatility as represented by the VIX, soothe our concerns a bit, as the number of folks worrying about investors not worrying says to us that complacency may not be quite as high as thought.
Though the people worrying about investors not worrying are the people desperate to sell eyeballs to advertisers. Ignore them.


BI - Bitcoin's doomsday scenario has arrived. OMG LOL STFU BRB! This is too fucking precious:
There is only way to hack the entire Bitcoin network, which has continued to hum along in the face of numerous Bitcoin business failures. It involves a series of group of Bitcoin miners taking control of 51% of the Bitcoin's processing power, thus giving them the power to confirm transactions that don't exist. Miners are simply computers that unscramble the encrypted series of numbers attached to every Bitcoin transaction. There is profit in numbers, and many miners have formed large pools to extract the maximum amount of profit for their work.

As a completely unregulated global currency made out of computer code, the only thing that has prevented the 51% threshold from being reached has been a form of mutually assured destruction: As soon as the 51% figure is reached, the price of Bitcoin will tank, leaving the digital junta little time to make much of a profit.

On Friday, mining pool GHash's share of the Bitcoin network ticked 51%.
So in other words,an unregulated free market in currency quickly turns into a monopoly! And hey! There's no pesky State there to intervene! Have fun watching your wealth evaporate before your very eyes, bitcoin idiots! Another failed libertarian experiment! When will these clowns realize libertarianism has never worked anywhere?


Military Times - how did 800 ISIS fighters defeat two Iraqi divisions? If you want the real Iraq story, go to the military and not to the media. Basically, the Shiites pissed off the Sunnis too much, so now the Sunnis aren't interested in fighting for Iraq anymore. This is yet another lesson in the Riddle of Steel that the American politicians will fail to learn.

What is the "Riddle of Steel", you say? Oh my! Let unlikely sci-fi villain James Earl Jones explain it to you!:



Doesn't matter how much technology you have, you need to control the bodies that wield it.


BBC - Netherlands 5, Spain 1. Do they only play on half-fields in Spain? Those clowns looked utterly lost in their own end. I know the Dutch have always been a top team, but this wasn't even a competitive outing for Spain. Well, I guess this means Chile has a good chance to advance.


Friday, June 13, 2014

Some weekend news


Here's some fun reading:


Calculated Risk - preliminary June consumer sentiment COLLAPSES!!! My god! Just look at the damage done to this chart!


Wait... what? You mean Zerohedge and Business Insider hyped up a result that is well within the chart's noise level? Why would they do that?


FT beyond brics - China bear with bull's horns. I'd care more about what Andy Xie has to say if he wasn't an idiot who's spent the last decade being wrong:
For those looking for signs China is headed for its own economic melt-down, look no further than uber-bear Andy Xie, a former colleague of Roach’s at Morgan Stanley.

For more than a decade, Xie, now an independent economist based in Shanghai, has been predicting apocalypse for the Chinese economy but in recent months something strange has happened.

Just as everybody else in the world, including senior Communist Party leaders, start to really worry about an impending Chinese crisis, Xie has strapped on a pair of bull’s horns.

According to Xie, the current property-led slowdown in China is “good news” and shows “China’s economy is finally ending its bubble addiction.”
Let me translate the above for you: if you had spent the last decade listening to Xie, you'd never have made a penny off of China. So do you really want to start listening to him now?


Reuters - China ramps up spending to spur economy. I guess that's good for gold demand, innit? Let's see: a $50 billion extra stimulus, 20% vig to the local officials, 50% of the vig gets laundered in Macau, 50% of that buys a Toronto condo and the rest buys gold bars that get stashed at the downtown Toronto HSBC... how much gold is that?


Bloomberg - SEC finally figures out the Allied Nevada buyout offer was a pump-n-dump scam. And now all they have to do is find a Chinaman in China. Should be easy, right? Not that many people named "Chang" in China.