Friday, March 2, 2018

Josh Brown on trade war

The Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - trade war.

Follow the links for more detailed commentary.

But this bit:
Needless to say, markets hate this idea, because it’s dumb, and the Dow Jones immediately vomited up 500 points as the impromptu declaration was made in front of an audience of steel CEOs.
is probably the part that the press should have been telling you, but which they haven't.

Thus, fear bullshit.

Aw, good ol' Trump, creating massive market volatility

Aw, good ol' Trump:

BI - Trump: "trade wars are good!!!!1"

For the record:

a) 25% on steel and aluminium are no big deal.

b) Sure, there is far more American manufacturing using steel and aluminium as inputs, and thus the tariffs are a net negative for the US economy.

c) Maybe Trump knows this, but really primary metals tariffs are just an indication that the primary industries are bribing Trump more than secondary manufacturers are.

d) Doesn't matter anyway, because manufacturing is a piddling small part of the US economy.

e) And US-listed manufacturers whose plants are in other countries won't see the tariff.

f) But yeah, it indicates Trump is willing to do other stupid things in the future.

g) I'm still waiting for someone in the press to point out whether or not Trump has the power to pass this without Congress. I doubt you can get a majority in the House or Senate to go along with this.

h) Though it'll be interesting to see which side the Democrats from steel districts are on. Trade wars are always popular in the Rust Belt.

i) In any case, it'll be interesting to see how this plays out at the international level. The US doesn't technically have the power to impose these tariffs under WTO, though of course the US does have the power to say "fuck you bozos".

j) Off to do more homework now. Wondering if we see $SPX 2600 again.

Friday videos: a song about Twin Peaks or something

Good to see the Chromatics have finally pulled their thumbs out their asses and released another song:

Wednesday, February 28, 2018

And by the way, on TA

By the way:

I'm taking spatial stats, and we're doing things like kernel estimates and Moran's I and so on.

Basically, with spatial data, you can generate these sorts of things to create maps that easily illustrate spatial variation in data.

One of my teachers was saying that he's been able to publish all sorts of stuff with a positive response just by doing a kernel analysis of a point pattern. It's a trivial exercise from a spatial stats perspective, but people in academia feel they get an awful lot of information from a picture.

I was thinking about this. Humans' brains are high-level visual computers: you can see how much so by looking at how fucking hard it is to train a computer to recognize a face, which we can do instantly.

And so, if you can present data in a visual pattern, you'll see what's subjectively a vast amount of info in that picture, that you'd never see in a list of numbers.

TA, then, is just applying simple heuristics to visual data, in order to access extra information visually.

And that's exactly why it looks like Tarot card reading, even when done properly.

market comment with 2 charts


The is the best of US market ETFs, and it looks like it doesn't want to break thru to a new high.

So what you should want to know right now is, will we stall here, or have another waterfall 10% collapse?

Well, since absolutely everything got correlated in the last spike and subsequent collapse, let's look for a clue in the reach for yield space:

And in this case, China failed at the Bollinger mean and has now dropped below its SMA(50) and gone Bollinger negative.

So either China diverges from the US in the next bit, or the failure in China yesterday means an upcoming failure in the US equities.

Sorry, having too much fun at school

Sorry, been having far too much fun learning spatial analysis at school, so haven't been posting.

New Deal Demoncrat is on the job, still keeping an eye out for a turn in the economy:

New Deal Demoncrat - a change in economic seasons? Part 2 will be coming soon, I hope.