Thursday, June 21, 2018

New Deal Demoncrat sounding the horn of fear, this time empirically

New Deal Demoncrat - poor housing permits points to looming slowdown in GDP. The housing cycle really is the US economic cycle, so this is important:

The preponderance of evidence, based on this morning's report on housing permits and starts, is that increased interest rates and continuing increased prices are beginning to take a bite out of the market.


Should single family permits fail to make a new high for at least one more month, and should the decline be over 5% from peak, I will switch their rating from positive to neutral. And, while the evidence is by no means conclusive, I would say the preponderance of the evidence is that housing is slowing down, and that will have an effect on the economy over the next 6 - 12 months.

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