Friday, March 2, 2018

Aw, good ol' Trump, creating massive market volatility


Aw, good ol' Trump:

BI - Trump: "trade wars are good!!!!1"

For the record:

a) 25% on steel and aluminium are no big deal.

b) Sure, there is far more American manufacturing using steel and aluminium as inputs, and thus the tariffs are a net negative for the US economy.

c) Maybe Trump knows this, but really primary metals tariffs are just an indication that the primary industries are bribing Trump more than secondary manufacturers are.

d) Doesn't matter anyway, because manufacturing is a piddling small part of the US economy.

e) And US-listed manufacturers whose plants are in other countries won't see the tariff.

f) But yeah, it indicates Trump is willing to do other stupid things in the future.

g) I'm still waiting for someone in the press to point out whether or not Trump has the power to pass this without Congress. I doubt you can get a majority in the House or Senate to go along with this.

h) Though it'll be interesting to see which side the Democrats from steel districts are on. Trade wars are always popular in the Rust Belt.

i) In any case, it'll be interesting to see how this plays out at the international level. The US doesn't technically have the power to impose these tariffs under WTO, though of course the US does have the power to say "fuck you bozos".

j) Off to do more homework now. Wondering if we see $SPX 2600 again.


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