Friday, January 12, 2018

And some real news....


It's very problematic to put together a policy seminar in one week that's worth 30% of your total grade, in a 4th-year class that you really want to get an A+ in, taught by a prof whose reccie you want for grad school, just saying.

I'm dumbfounded and stupefied by the continued strength in SPY and QQQ: they've gone way too far, you shouldn't make this much money in a month, their technicals are very overextended.

Then again, the big Trump tax breaks are going to put a lot of new money into the pockets of buyers of equities, while simultaneously allowing companies to buy back shares to shrink the equity pool. So while the behaviour is abnormal, the environment itself is abnormal.

And of course this is going to blow one hell of a bubble, because Republicans believe in bubbles. But it can take years to play out: recessions happen for reasons, not because of disturbances in the quantum foam.

I disbelieve the inflation hype, by the way, because (1) nobody can measure inflation anymore, it's all been politicized; (2) price inflation is not asset inflation is not commodity inflation; (3) the institutional monetary system of the West has been successfully fighting "inflation" for 35 years now, they aren't going to stop anytime soon.

But with all that in mind, The Cookie Monster Himself laid out a few years ago why there's a good case to invest in gold... eventually. Now might be that eventuity.

But, with that in mind:

WSJ - the global economy's output gap has closed. This is a big thing. I'm not interested in explaining this to you: go read Wikipedia on the topic, and then get 3 years of an economics degree.

New Deal Demoncrat - JOLTS confirms November payrolls strength.

New Deal Demoncrat - a US economic boom in 2018? Then again, what's important for the US is whether there's a global boom, not a US one.

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