Friday, December 14, 2018
Wednesday, December 12, 2018
This is just so neat that I had to share it.
God only knows why YouTube hands me the recommendations that it does.
But yeah, this guy's theory actually does make complete sense.
Friday, December 7, 2018
Monday, December 3, 2018
Well, I got done a stats assignment, a history essay and a geography assignment last night, so now I have no term work left to do and I can move into "study for exams" mode.
So, I have a bit of time for comment:
Two of the big worries over the last market drop have been:
1. The Fed is going to raise rates til it causes a recession, and
2. The US is destroying world trade and will cause a worldwide slowdown.
President Piddles seems to have addressed worry #2 this weekend, not that his word means anything ever, while Jerome Powell hinted at a resolution of worry #1 earlier last week when he called rates "maybe just under neutral".
And as for #3, now we move into Christmas, and sales figures are the most persuasive market movers throughout December.
Meanwhile, though, the QQQ is still under its SMA(200) and the SPY looks like it's halting at the SMA(50). With downward SMA(50)s in both charts, and death crosses close to happening.
So maybe this is the world's greatest fakeout? We'll see.
Friday, November 30, 2018
Sunday, November 25, 2018
BBC News - family forgive Sentinelese tribesman who shot their fuckhead relative full of holes. Quote:
In his last letter to his family he wrote: "You guys might think I'm crazy in all this but I think it's worthwhile to declare Jesus to these people.
He wrote he was "doing this to establish the kingdom of Jesus on the island... Do not blame the natives if I am killed," the source said.
Jeff King is president of International Christian Concern, the organisation with which Mr Chau was aligned, and was in contact with him during his visit.
"He'd been in the islands before, to this particular island... there were three or four visits on that day, and what happened was on the first visit he was turned back by arrows; the second visit, he came with two big fish as a gift.
"My understanding was the men accepted the gift; they sat together for an hour; he said they were menacing and they actually shot him. He went back to the boat, and then gradually went back a third time. That's when the fishermen who were looking through binoculars saw that they'd killed him and were taking him apart.
Dumbass Christian morons.
at 5:31 PM
Saturday, November 24, 2018
Friday, November 23, 2018
Wednesday, November 21, 2018
By the way, cheating is rife at university.
I TA'ed intermediate macro in the spring, and believe it or not we actually caught a girl with a cheat sheet up her sleeve at the midterm.
That prof had his own custom-designed questions for the class, instead of using a textbook test bank (which I don't think exists for Varian); but I still found all his questions online at the various cheating websites.
Didn't matter, of course: a big chunk of the class still failed, because if you never actually did the assignment problems you would get slaughtered on the final.
Unless you were Chinese and paid a lookalike to take the test for you. Which I'm quite sure happened a lot, because all the Chinese Visa students had fucking heavily photoshopped student IDs.
And now I've been trying to teach myself stats all week because this assignment due tomorrow is so confusing, and I just found a literal scan of Q2 on Chegg.
But then the rich kids' mommies and daddies voted for Harris, and tuition was jacked up so it's now unaffordable for the working class.
The only students left at university are the brats from million dollar homes in Markham and Mississauga, whose parents have been feeding them the line that they all deserve upper-class jobs like theirs just because of their accident of birth. Then they get to university, without ever having studied, and they decide to cheat their way through to get a degree that they definitely don't deserve.
And by the way: this class' first midterm average was 57%. The prof was forced to re-mark the test to let more of the brats pass. TWO OF THE FIVE QUESTIONS WERE FROM SECOND YEAR! For another two of the five questions, he LITERALLY GAVE US THE ANSWER AND ASKED US TO SHOW HOW TO FIND IT!
When you lock the working class out of university, meritocracy disappears and you get rich brats demanding their birthright.
This is also why my history class tutorial is full of fucking rich kids (seriously, one is a DeSantis, they own Hamilton) blathering on about white male oppression when the only reason they're in university instead of pumping gas is because their mommies and daddies voted for oppression by the kleptocratic elite. I have not once seen Marxist class analysis come out of anyone's mouth, and that's because all these brats know down deep that they're members of the oppressor class: they just try to hide it by whining on about the imagined evils of white male imperialist oppression. Like science.
You also can't bring up that a lot of these kids are Indians and Arabs whose parents or grandparents only made it to Canada because their ancestors profited off a thousand years of slavery themselves. People tend to scuttle away when you point out that while there are still 300 million Dalits in India, you'll never find Dalits in Canadian temples because a) they aren't allowed out of India and b) Canadian temples bar Dalits from entry.
Anyway, rant off or I'll never get this assignment done.
at 2:57 PM
Tuesday, November 20, 2018
BBC - anti-vaxxers behind recent North Carolina chicken pox outbreak. Quote:
"This is the biggest chickenpox outbreak state health officials are aware of since the vaccine became available," a North Carolina Department of Health spokesman told the BBC in an emailed statement.
Out of the Waldorf School's 152 students, 110 have not received the vaccine for the varicella virus, known to most as chickenpox, the Citizen-Times found.
And 67.9% of the school's kindergarten students had religious immunisation exemptions on file in the 2017-2018 school year, according to state data.
In a more enlightened age, we'd put all the anti-vaxxers on an island together, then quarantine it and wait 10 years for Darwin to do his thing.
You could say that the perfect ping of the SMA(200), and the subsequent imminent crossover in the MACD, are indications that this is a continuation pattern with a target of something like 38 (if you don't understand logarithms) or more like 50 (if you did do well in highschool math).
But if so, you'd prove you have no clue what $VIX is.
Nevertheless, it does maybe signify that Wall Street has a problem with Trump exploding the US budget deficit right before the Fed engineers a Volcker recession.
You could say that the perfect ping of the SMA(200), and the subsequent imminent crossover in the MACD, are indications that this is a continuation pattern with a target of something like 38 (if you don't understand logarithms) or more like 50 (if you did do well in highschool math).
But if so, you'd prove you have no clue what $VIX is.
Nevertheless, it does maybe signify that Wall Street has a problem with Trump exploding the US budget deficit right before the Fed engineers a Volcker recession.
Been too busy with assignments and grad applications to post for you lot.
But here's another one of my old standards:
Reuters - Bitcoin crashing, no end in sight.
It's $4450 as of now, should hit its target of $0 soon.
It's probably happening because Chinese billionaires are looking for capital to shore up their positions after the recent Chinese market crash.
Friday, November 16, 2018
You know, I love will.i.am to death and all, but sometimes his raps are just hilariously bad.
Viz. "this beat is the shit: feces!"
And oh my goodness, Will, but if that beat is really so hard, then you must have totally loved Dev & the Cataracs back in the day.
J.Lo in a lace bodystocking impersonating Shakira, though, is something the world needs more of, so thanks.
Tuesday, November 13, 2018
Guardian - Trump commemorates Remembrance Day by... yup, thought so. Quote:
Donald Trump ramped up his spat with Emmanuel Macron, the French president, with a denigrating tweet in which he said Parisians had started to learn German during the second world war before the US saved them from occupation.
THERE ARE NO WORDS.
Sunday, November 11, 2018
Friday, November 9, 2018
A live band, in Berlin, covering you've got to be fucking kidding me "Galvanize", and they did it well too:
Friday, November 2, 2018
Friday, October 26, 2018
Just many dimensions of ouch:
The S&P has now collapsed through its weekly SMA(50). That's bad. But what's worse:
is that the R2K shows a lot more pain to come.
I dunno if you can say that this is investors deciding to puke stocks at 18x P/E when they can own 10Y at 3%, or whether it's fallout from Trump's oh so clever trade war, or the sugar-pill stochastic spike of a one-time tax break wearing off, or what.
But you guys should have known that the markets always do better with a Democrat president.
Probably at least partially because nearly all Republican presidents since Nixon have been fucking idiots.
So these two German guys are working on a song in Germany and decide they need a rapper, so they go to an American air force base in Germany and ask the first black guy they come across "hey, can you rap?" and he says "sure", and they end up recording a smash hip-hop hit in Germany:
Monday, October 22, 2018
Well, today I had a stats test where I had to prove that the mean of f(x) = 1/n! * e^-x * x^n equals n+1.
I knew this was a series, but had no idea what it was.
I integrated by parts a few times, and saw the mean was iteratively turning into (n+1)!/n! * the series e^-x * x^n.
I said "okay, there's my n+1, but some fucking annoying series right after it."
I crossed out the series and wrote "1", giving me my answer.
Well, it turns out that e^x = the series x^n/n!. Which means the series that I crossed out really WAS 1.
I won't get full marks, because I didn't solve the iterative integration by induction.
But still... damn!
And that was the hardest question on a 3rd year stats test? These pussy kids of today!
Friday, October 19, 2018
Oh, those wacky Eastern European fascists:
Reuters - how Poland fell out of step with reality.
I love this bit the most:
The health ministry has also sponsored a booklet called “Towards maturity” for school instructors on family and reproductive health, with a stated aim of “preventing a tendency to postpone procreation.” Included in it is a statement that promiscuity “changes a woman’s psyche,” because “a woman’s nature is to devote herself entirely to a beloved man.”
You know a lifestyle progressivist lives in a bubble when they whine more about a Buzzfeed article than about real Eastern European regressivism, by the way.
at 4:55 AM
Thursday, October 18, 2018
Liz Ann Sonders - Schwab market perspective: winter is coming.
Yeah, I think most of the doom in that bullshit missive is actually from Kleintop, yet again shitting all over a good analyst's work.
I prefer this, from four days earlier:
Liz Ann Sonders - Schwab market perspective: no, winter is not coming.
The recession indicators all indicate no recession coming. Yield curve is fine, LEIs are still fantastic, and did you know consumer confidence is actually an input into the economy?
Tuesday, October 16, 2018
New Deal Demoncrat - is the taboo against raising wages beginning to break?
The interesting thing about this is that a rise in worker compensation is what you need in order to get a really growing economy.
Not just due to consumption increases, but also due to the fact that rising wages generate investment in capital in order to substitute away from more expensive labour. And the US makes a lot of money from capital investment in production.
Tim Duy the
I dunno… tanking the economy with rate hikes, the way Volcker did, isn't really popular nowadays. Both in the conservative Clinton 90s and the conservative Bush 00's, the Fed was willing to blow a bubble with artificially low rates.
And I'm sure that the Fed staff realize deep down that their dot plots are a worthless pathetic joke, considering the dots have been wrong for the past ten years.
I'm wondering if Duy is just coming down with New Deal Demoncrat's Trump Disease.
Monday, October 15, 2018
Friday, October 12, 2018
Thursday, October 11, 2018
Ritholtz - the crash that everyone saw coming.
Random walk is a bullshit theory propounded by idiots who never read the original book, by the way.
What actually happens is, people buy because they see buying driving prices up, and people sell because they see selling driving prices down. This turns all market moves into hammerblow-torque positive feedback-driven moves. Take second-year difference equations at university.
If this was a real crash, with a real reason, you'd see a fast market go limit-down.
Um... like it did a few years ago, from whence it bounced back, or like it did a few months ago when XIV got destroyed, from whence it bounced back.
If it breaks through the weekly SMA(50), then that'll be yet another nail in Trump's coffin for next month's elections. People will be blaming the crash on his trade wars, his tax break sugar high, his massive deficits and so on.
Til then, all I'll say is dammit I wish there was still a short vix ETF for this kind of action.
Friday, October 5, 2018
Oopsie, the Nasdaq just broke its 50-day:
And apparently it's all because yields are popping:
Does this mean we finally get to see the massive repudiation of debt as a dishonest system is coming apart at the seams?
Sorry, Vlad, but your country is not the great powerhouse of espionage that it used to be back in the day, no matter how much you masturbate at night about it:
The Guardian - string of own goals by Russian spies exposes a strange sloppiness. Quote:
One of the men, Aleksei Morenets, an alleged hacker, appeared to have set up a dating profile.
Another played for an amateur Moscow football team “known as the security services team” a current player told the Moscow Times. “Almost everyone works for an intelligence agency.” The team rosters are publicly available.
Russia has claimed that the investigations are fake and that researchers are in league with western intelligence. But most of the evidence to uncover the spies was already out there, and conveniently timestamped on social media.
It's about as stupid as when the Russians shot down MH-17 over the Ukraine, then bragged about it on Vkontakte.
It gets even worse, by the way: the laptop seized in Holland proves the agents also worked in other countries because the idiots were running off the hard drive, which any script kiddie knows is stupid: you do your work on a USB-based OS so you leave no traces.
And even The Sun wades in:
The Sun FFS, I mean really - Vladimir Putin’s ‘dumb Bond’ spies outed 300 Russian agents because their Lada was registered to top-secret cyber HQ. Quote:
Intelligence agencies around the world now have a database of Kremlin agents because two of the GRU agents snapped at The Hague last night were travelling under their real passports, names and dates of birth.
Haven't these fucking idiots watched The Bourne Identity?
Commons Foreign Affairs Committee chairman Tom Tugendhat MP said Russian corruption could be behind the GRU gaffes. He said: “Decades of theft have stripped Russia’s intelligence of the skills they once had. Putin’s corrupt greed has turned the GRU into an amateurish bunch of jokers.”
Yeah, that's pretty much the answer.
Funny, by the way, that the Sun calls Corbyn a "useful idiot" of the Russians when we all know it was Farage and UKIP, The Sun's best buddies, who were funded by the GRU for the past5 years.
Friday, September 28, 2018
BBC - Bellingcat: the website behind the Skripal revelation.
If you're a blogger, you're able to discover that one of the two men that Russia admits was in Salisbury when Skripal was poisoned is in fact a high-ranking GRU officer.
Really, Russia first putting him on TV and acknowledging he's a suspect, and then forgetting to scrub all his data from the internet, shows just how idiotic the country has become.
Let's do a bunch of Friday videos of dance music from the age of dance:
Monday, September 24, 2018
So the Fed is probably going to raise rates again at this week's meeting, which the market has already priced in.
But the fifteen minutes around the announcement will still see a wild swing in gold prices, as all bids are pulled so that the robots can puke into an empty book. Because hedge funds don't fucking care, it's all a casino run by cokeheads.
I'm wondering if the Fed is going to have any commentary on "political uncertainty", meaning the possibility of trade disruption and damage to international supply chains as a result of Trump being a fucking moron. That would make for even more fun in the markets: heck, maybe that could puke the SPY by a few percent in the following days as people realize it's not a one-way bid.
Longer term, of course, the US has always been the only market worth investing in.
Though Japan looks strangely exciting right now.
India is having a subpar monsoon this year, but nobody cares about that.
Friday, September 21, 2018
Amazing how the Lizard People don't want gold to cross the SMA(50):
But at the same time, the Forces of Liberty and Jebus aren't letting it collapse through the lower Bollinger band, either.
Maybe telling today is that the 8:45 puke of gold didn't cause silver to go into the red.
Thursday, September 20, 2018
Macro Tourist - the end of the US bid?
Yeah, I think he's forgetting that you can invest in US equities from anywhere in the world, and that everyone else in the world also wants to buy US because Europe is a clusterfuck etc.
But still, maybe you want to read it.
Wednesday, September 19, 2018
WSJ RTE - Trump threatens more tariffs. This is the part that interests me:
ADD IT UP
Trump administration tariffs against China—implemented, on the way and threatened—would cover just about all imports from that country. That's going to leave a mark. It's hard to forecast precisely how much the economy could slow or inflation would rise. How does China retaliate? How do markets respond? How badly are supply chains snarled? But Oxford Economics estimates that U.S. gross domestic product growth could drop by a full percentage point next year if the U.S. tops off the current $250 billion with another $267 billion in tariffs. With the economy expected to grow at a 2.4% to 2.8% pace (according to Federal Reserve and Congressional Budget Office estimates), that's a significant drag.
FOR BETTER OR WORSE
New tariffs might provide a short-term boost before the long-term drag settles in—if companies respond by importing as much as they can from China before the tariffs hit. Revved up spending and rising inventories could boost growth through the end of the year. A New Year’s hangover would follow as consumers balk at higher prices and businesses stop ordering because their warehouses are stuffed. With interest rates set to go up next week and again in December, the tightening could make the impact of the spending slowdown worse. That's when the impact of the trade fight will be felt, Justin Lahart writes.
Calculating the impact of literally anything is a mug's game, but a rise in inventories always precedes recessions.
Then again, maybe it's housing inventories that are important, not consumer goods inventories.
at 2:29 PM
EWJ has been crazy exciting the past few days.
And the weekly chart looks interesting:
That, my pretties, is a consolidation over time. MACD is now back to neutral and triggered upward. Price is back above the weekly EMA(10) and weekly Bollinger mean, and is presently breaking thru the weekly SMA(50).
Yes, there really are girls at university who sound like a walking, talking tumblr post.
An annoying girl in my cities tutorial kept talking about how she was aware of her privilege.
She damn well should be aware, because the only reason she's in university is because her mommy and daddy live in a million dollar home in the 905, and continually voted conservative to drive the working class out of university with high tuitions.
I don't see her using her privilege to do anything whatsoever for the betterment of society, though, because all she knows how to do in 3rd year is blather her own personal opinions.
I'm not a Jordan Peterson worshipper, but he is totally right about the state of social science at university. The problem isn't leftie profs, though: the problem is that the university is full of entitled children of the rich who think they deserve a Ph.D. without doing the work. Meritocracy only existed at university as a way of weeding out the poors; with tuition at $7500/y., it's back to the old 19th century French model of the leisure class being given candy for writing bullshit.
Until the 905 mommies and daddies accept that they've parented their children badly and they should be punished with downward mobility, nobody will allow these profs to instil proper rational thinking and work effort into these brats. And so the collapse of western intellectualism will continue.
As an aside, my most Marxist prof at Mac (and yes, he really used to be a Marxist) also gave us the heaviest workload by far. And his final exam was a brutal 3 hours of constant writing. So no, it's not cultural Marxism that's the problem: it's letting kids go thru undergrad and grad without ever learning argument, rational thinking, standards of evidence, or empirics.
Anyway, GDX's chart is interesting:
A positive break upward through the EMA(10), a heavily oversold MACD and RSI, and RSI and MACD divergence over the past month all pile together to make this chart constructive, at least in the short term.
Gold has also failed to break down below $1200.
I guess someone's bailing out the Turkish banks, then?
Friday, September 14, 2018
I forgot how good this band actually was.
What's especially interesting is that their first two albums were produced by Todd Rundgren, and this song in particular (which apparently they had written before meeting him) sounds so damn much like a Rundgren/Utopia song, it's scary.
It saddens me that despite Moe Berg's really beautiful songwriting, having Leslie Stanwick and Kris Abbott's perfect backing vocals, and leapfrogging a new band's obstacles very early on by making a very successful amateur video for their first song (before anyone thought a video could break a band), they were ultimately wrecked by singing with two godawful record labels in a row (Chrysalis, then Mercury). I just have to wonder how different their career would have been if instead they'd hooked up with Nettwerk in 1987: it worked out amazing for Sarah McLachlan, and these guys would have been an easier sell.
Thursday, September 13, 2018
Tuesday, September 11, 2018
Dumping 500 tons of gold into the market makes the price go down:
Al-monitor - Why are Turkey's gold reserves on the rise? The article is from April, when Turkey was trying to build up a cushion against currency collapse.
Since then, their banking system has moved into collapse. In such situations, all cushions against collapse get puked into the market to buy time. Only once there are zero reserves will Turkey get either bailed out or not.
And that is why you shouldn't rely on TA and other such bullshit for gold price analysis.
at 9:10 AM
Friday, September 7, 2018
Tuesday, September 4, 2018
Well, silver is crashing back down to its late-2015 low.
Copper, oil and SLX are nowhere near such lows, though.
So I don't think you can read this as either a USD problem or a China slowdown problem. It's something specific to PMs.
Turkish banks puking gold into an empty book to buy another day of solvency fits the bill.
Good luck picking the bottom on this one, IKN. You should know by now to not base your opinions on TA.
Friday, August 31, 2018
Wednesday, August 29, 2018
In passing, here's a story about music royalties:
Digital Music News - I wrote a hit song for Justin Bieber, wanna see my royalties?
Of course it's got the typical complaint about digital royalties, and the typical Bob Lefsetz retort to this guy would be that 34 million spins on YouTube over 3 years is nothing: great, it got to #6 on the Hot 100, and was on the 100 for over 20 weeks, but radio airplay means nothing nowadays, most radio doesn't even play music, and he's already earned a pile on the digital sales.
I'd agree with Bob: Jenna Marbles' recent video teaching her dogs to swim, for example, already has 3M views in a week.
Then again, Jenna Marbles produces a video a week, at least, and is making enough money to live in a nice house in California. So she's defs getting paid much more than this songwriter's rate of $1 for every 170,000 views. So, this songwriter is probably getting fucked over by Justin on the songwriting royalties for YouTube. He should take another look at his contract, and ask YouTube what they think his share is on the spins.
But anyway, the main point was to point to the fact that, over 3 years, a top-10 single can earn you $250,000 in radio royalties alone.
I'd read interviews of "one-hit wonders" like Jesus Jones, who have a permanent income off one song, but never saw any hard and fast figures for airplay alone (Jesus Jones apparently get most of their money selling the song in international markets for advertising).
And by the way, this is a neat topic in economics: a songwriter is essentially generating capital (a song) that then produces a constant income (royalties). A song is, basically, a lot like a factory: it's actually a lot more like a patent.
And one problem, then, is that this capital depreciates: a lot of songs earn little money after the first year, so depreciation over the population is really high, like 50%.
Now, how much of the US's gross output is songs? Think about that. Try and calculate the discounted present value. It gets impressive.
Anyway, just wanted to pass that along. I'd actually wonder if royalty cheques have remained constant over the past 30 years, or if songwriters are getting less per hit song than they got 30 years ago, for example.
at 8:40 AM
Tuesday, August 28, 2018
Oh, President Piddles is complaining again:
CNN - debunking Trump's claim that Google is only promoting left-wing hit pieces.
#1: If you think "conservative" "news" sites are news sites, you're fucked in the head.
#2: If you think NYT and WaPo are "left-leaning" sites, you're fucked in the head.
Seriously. I'm not even going to argue this. An argument on the topic assumes that you are a willing participant in a debate where, if given enough evidence, you will change your mind. But people who read fucktard sites like Fox are not ever interested in changing their mind. Trump could rape babies on a Satanic altar on video while denouncing the coal industry, and these people wouldn't change their opinion of him.
#3: Hey Piddles! If you don't like the news about you, maybe it's because you're not doing anything good whatsoever? I mean, the only "good Trump news" I ever see is you taking credit for things that other people have done. The "bad" news is all the things that you have done. Maybe you should stop doing anything whatsoever? Including, maybe, talking?
#4: The media isn't there to talk about how fantastic you are. Well... in other countries, like fascist Hungary or kleptocratic authoritarian Russia, the media is there only to trumpet how fantastic their overlord is... but not in a democracy.
I guess that democracy is the problem, then.
But, most importantly:
#5: Let's not forget that Trump is still about to be indicted for colluding with a foreign government to subvert a democratic election the United States, and nothing he says on twitter will change that.
Sunday, August 26, 2018
Only because I'm sure Lefsetz, in his long career, has seen hundreds of big people go down in flames, I find his thoughts on Trump fascinating:
Bob Lefsetz - the king must die. Quotes, from once you get past his complaints about Subaru service:
Last night, on Fox of all places, Trump said not to impeach him because the economy would tank.
He’s starting to negotiate.
Well, as words from a socially retarded narcissist, this does seem like bargaining.
But, you say the Congress will never authorize impeachment.
It probably won’t get to that. Because if you know your history, the Republican Senators told Nixon he had to go. Ultimately the Republican Senators are gonna tell Donald Trump to go, if he doesn’t declare victory and leave early.
I'm not so sure. I think, at a minimum, they need to see themselves utterly slaughtered in the midterms, and then think it'll only continue to get worse. They're not going to act for self-preservation if they don't think their existence is in danger.
And this week especially has proven there are two teams, I checked the Fox site Tuesday and Cohen and Manafort were not even close to the top. Still aren’t. Which makes you think that Trump can survive in this topsy-turvy world, but he won’t.
Dunno where he gets those last three words from, given the previous sentence.
But here's the important bit:
So Trump demands loyalty, believing the government should be run like a Mafia family, but Sessions says no go, he’s already running from the stink, there comes a time when you defend yourself, like John Dean, because you realize the man in charge is not looking out for you, and you don’t want to go down with the ship.
And now David Pecker has turned state’s evidence.
And rather than talk to the portraits in the White House, like Nixon, Trump is talking to his minions at Fox, at rallies, but he’s stumbling, he’s lost his self-confidence, he’s on the run.
Life is a game, some know how to play it, some don’t. Some learn through experience, others repeat their mistakes. You succeed with a village, Peter Paterno told me how to play my hand. Donald Trump has only listened to himself, demanded loyalty and breached the compact on a regular basis, the only supporters he truly has are his family, and already some of its members are on the run.
Friday, August 24, 2018
Wednesday, August 22, 2018
While you're all waiting for Trump's impeachment, which can't happen anyway til after the Dems take the House and Senate, because the Republicans would never go after one of their own no matter how corrupt and incompetent he is, even if it means they can replace him with the much more palatable (to Republicans) Mike Pence, here's some other news:
Financial Post - cryptocurrency investors wiped out. Apparently the value of all outstanding tokens is down by 75 percent. So why are they even still news?
Calculated Risk - demographics and inflation. This is an interesting idea: can inflation simply be a demographic phenomenon? This is from the BIS:
A robust relationship emerges that accords with the lifecycle hypothesis. That is, inflationary pressure rises when the share of dependants increases and, conversely, subsides when the share of working age population increases. This relationship accounts for the bulk of trend inflation, for instance, about 7 percentage points of US disinflation since the 1980s. It predicts rising inflation over the coming decades.This is really neat.
CFR - Turkey's financial vulnerabilities. It's a different kind of crisis, but it's definitely going to have to come to a head. As an aside, Turkish banks facing a funding crunch, and having the ability to count gold as reserves, might explain why gold crashed this past month: the Turkish banks are liquidating their gold holdings first. Anyway, let's hope the German and Swiss banking fuckers who've backed this fascist get wiped out in the ensuing mayhem.
New Deal Demoncrat - 2012 Obama voters by 2016 vote. Basically, the Democrats need to find a better candidate than Hillary in 2020. As if they can even grasp that, instead of just blaming their defeat on some mythical neo-Nazis and racists suddenly coming into existence. Anyway, I don't know if this has any bearing at all on the 2018 midterms.
Tuesday, August 21, 2018
Friday, August 17, 2018
Wednesday, August 15, 2018
Wow, gold miners are really getting beaten like a mixed-race stepchild today. This breakdown is also happening in ex-USD terms.
It's a waterfall collapse, about 10% in 2 days, and it'll be interesting to see how far this falls.
Apparently, when a country like Turkey falls to pieces and sees its economy collapse, people sell gold, not buy it.
Maybe that's the physics for fascist dictatorships? It's only people who live in liberal democracies who buy gold when fear rises?
at 11:52 AM
Tuesday, August 14, 2018
Still can't be arsed to post much, unfortunately. The market is on autopilot, everything seems wrong but maybe is supposed to be that way, and it seems I'm taking an extended vacation through August. The latter is probably because in Sep 2019 I'll probably be going to grad school, and if it all works out next summer I hope I can work full-time for a prof, so I understand that this is the last relaxation I'm going to have for years, and thus I want to max out.
Interesting to see gold crash below $1200. On BNN this morning, one talking head was rapping on the idea that gold investment faces a demographic crisis: it's only old psychos who want to buy gold as a hedge against The Ebil Sociamalism, young psychos are buying Buttcoin instead, so as the oldsters age we can expect gold demand will dissolve.
Nice story, but probably a bit silly, because a) gold demand is about the EMs and not the idiot American survivalists, and b) gold right now has done nothing in ex-USD terms except trade to the bottom of its range:
A "crash in gold" would have to be a crash ex-USD, to have any meaning. We're simply back to where we were in Dec '16 and July '17, with weekly RSI already cleared out and weekly MACD nearly at a suitable negative-level bottom. It seems gold miner investors know this:
Gold miner sentiment is simply back to the bottom of its channel, and RSI and MACD suggest it's just working off all its positive sentiment. Then again, channels do get broken.
So the gold weakness is really just a USD story, and artificial USD strength will always be generated by expectation of a New American Mercantilism like what Trump is pushing. Now, if the Dems can actually smash the Republicans this fall in blue-collar rust-belt districts, and if the Repubs think this happens because Trump's mercantilism has damaged the economy (which it will, given the international nature of supply chains), then you'll see the mercantilist policies peter out, USD will unstrengthen, and gold will lose some downward pressure.
A crash in Buttcoin will also make gold look better: yeah, I know I said gold demand is an EM phenom, but really honestly the Chinese nowadays are nuts about buttcoin and not gold.
Side note: I was in a stats course, and a Chinese girl was sitting in front of me. Like all entitled bourgeois children of today, she had her laptop open and was watching the internet instead of paying attention in class, but what was interesting was that she was watching bitcoin price in real time. I know Chinese are gambling addicts, and I know that most Chinese students in Canada are children of the Chinese kleptocracy; so she was obvs watching bitcoin price because her daddy had given her a bitcoin wallet of embezzled money to pay for her stay in Canada.
Will the Dems hurt the Repubs in the fall midterms? Really, I have no clue. Let's look at possible causes:
Pro-Dem in 2018
1. Some prior Trump voters (including Obama voters and Sanders voters who switched to Trump) will feel buyers' remorse and switch to Dem.
2. Some prior blue-collar Trump voters may be turned off by Trump's pro-business policies and realize they were bamboozled again.
3. Angrier people have a higher turnout in midterms.
4. Empirics. The Repubs have been godawful weak in some races. I mean, Alabama elected a Democratic senator, how did that happen?
5. Demographics. The old, reliable Republican base is dying.
6. Money. If people like the Kochs are pulling funding, the Repubs are in trouble.
Anti-Dem in 2018
1. Really, the Dems haven't changed, so what would attract any Trump voter to their party?
It's all obviously very complex, and I'm not professing to know the answer, but at least I try and think about this crap once in a while.
But not this summer. Right now frankly I'd rather be playing Splix.
at 7:48 AM
Friday, August 10, 2018
Friday, August 3, 2018
The idea recently has been that the USD is appreciating because Trump is going to fight a trade war (hegemonic mercantilism supports a currency) and reduce his trade deficit. More US goods on the world market mean more demand for US dollars to buy those goods, fewer foreign goods in the US market mean fewer foreign currencies demanded to buy those goods, and thus USD goes up versus everyone who's an "enemy of America" (Canada, the EU, the UK, etc.).
I'm wondering how long it's going to take before people realize there's an opposite narrative: tax breaks like Trump's, that generate a trillion-dollar-a-year federal deficit, should make a currency collapse in value.
Which, actually, would make for a better way to eliminate a trade deficit... though I doubt Americans will want to live through that hellscape.
at 9:39 AM
Death, the funny version:
Thursday, August 2, 2018
Monday, July 30, 2018
Sorry, had an emergency operation to have half my liver removed. But I've still got all my spleen, as you can see below:
Global - US firms queue up for tariff waivers. No, steel tariffs aren't as simple as you think.
New Deal Demoncrat - Q2 GDP is as good as it's going to get. I dunno, I mean what's supposed to stop this juggernaut?
Calculated Risk - no, the housing market hasn't peaked. If that's still doing fine, then the US will continue to expand.
WSJ - why Treasury hasn't labelled EU, China as currency manipulators. Germany, by the way, is engaged in constant currency manipulation: it's part of the ECU and trading with a currency that is weaker than a Deutschemark would be. And that's why Germany's current account surplus is eight fucking percent, and has been that high forever, which parenthetically was precisely the cause of the Spanish and Irish crises earlier this decade, but will never change because Germany owns the fucking EU.
Friday, July 27, 2018
Friday, July 20, 2018
Thursday, July 19, 2018
Haven't been watching it for a while, so I was surprised this morning to see that gold has really dropped conclusively below $1300.
Two quick charts:
Silver weekly looks like death. If it doesn't turn around in the next week then this multi-year pennant resolves on the downside with pain. Eric Sprott will probably blow his brains out.
Gold looks slightly less horrible on the weeklies.
Tuesday, July 17, 2018
New Deal Demoncrat - industrial production and real retail sales.
Everything looks fine, but with the trade actions recently taken I'm going to say the more important place to look for the next few months will be inventories and industrial capital investment.
Though, then again, oligarchic late capitalism actually has a fuck of a lot of wiggle room in pricing, and I remain agnostic as to whether 25% tariffs across the board are really going to show up in prices anywhere.
at 1:38 PM
BBC - what if we all have to work til we're 100? Yeah, about that:
There’s a sizeable gap between the amount that most people are saving towards their retirement, and the amount that they’re likely to need. It’s growing every day. According to a recent report by the World Economic Forum (WEF), people living in some of the world’s largest economies – the US, UK, Japan, Netherlands, Canada, Australia, China and India – collectively face an eye-watering $428 trillion savings hole by 2050.
So the World Economic Forum, besides being the organizers of the Dav(r)os event, must also be a group of fucking morons.
The reason I say this is that the supposed $428T shortfall is close to the total wealth of the planet. All publicly-traded world equities total $100T, private business is maybe another $100T, there's maybe $100T in bonds, gold is a pittance, and world real estate is about $250T - all figures plus-or-minus a huge margin of error.
Savings has to be invested in something that pays a return. So, if all the rich countries' old people suddenly had an extra $428T to cover their lifetime savings shortfall, that $428T would have to be invested in debt, equity, and real estate: things that pay a return.
But there would be no extra investment in production, because that extra $428T in savings would not cause any change to consumption demand.
So, that $428T would be invested in existing businesses, equities, and bonds, which would mean a UST10Y yield of maybe 1.5% and a US market forward P/E of over 30.
Neither of which can happen sustainably.
In any case, since it's Davros suggesting this number, it probably assumes that all old people in rich countries want to spend $100,000 a year on fucking caviar and fine wines, instead of complaining about how you can't any longer buy buttwipe for under $4 a pack.
Friday, July 13, 2018
Friday, July 6, 2018
Monday, July 2, 2018
Reuters - Trump orders drafting of the FART act. When you elect stupid, you get newsworthy events such as this:
U.S. President Donald Trump has ordered the drafting of legislation that would mean abandoning key disciplines agreed at the World Trade Organization, Axios news website reported late on Sunday, to a skeptical response from trade experts.Wait for it....
Axios reported on Friday that Trump wanted to leave the WTO, a story dismissed by U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin as “wrong” and “an exaggeration”.Wait for it...
The website followed up on Sunday by publishing what it said was a draft bill, the “United States Fair and Reciprocal Tariff Act”, immediately drawing ridicule for legislation that would be known by its acronym, the FART Act.THERE you go.
Friday, June 29, 2018
No music this week... instead, Tony Wilson interviews Bill Drummond and his silly moustache on the release on the KLF's "The Manual":
And Bill proves that Alan McGee wasn't even remotely the biggest nutter from Glasgow in the 90s.
Thursday, June 28, 2018
CNBC - interview with Paul Hickey. Bespoke is the smartest market analysis organization out there, and I'm always tempted to renew my subscription so that I can get their opinions day-to-day. Here, Paul Hickey says that their analytics suggest a lot of the past few days' moves are just end of quarter rotation.
I disagree based on my view of the charts in the previous post, but hearing that Bespoke is on the other side always makes me doubt myself.
My old "rule of threes" had me out of the market this week. Good thing:
The third peak happened in mid-June, and my totally silly-sounding "rule of threes" said that after the third peak, you're not going to get a third simple breakdown to the lower Bollinger, but rather a longer fall. Because the market never does the same thing three times.
So now, SPY wants to break its SMA(50).
QQQ had previously sailed up to a new all-time high. Now, however, it's negated the positivity of that move. At best we get a long protracted retest of the all-time breakout. The hold of the SMA(50) makes me feel positive right now.
$VIX was popping for the past few days, but that could simply have been due to end-of-month fund repositioning. And in any case, today's $VIX doesn't make the same noises as last year's $VIX because of the destruction of the XIV ETF. So you have to look at the index charts to see whether the $VIX move really means something.
And emerging markets look positively terrible right now. The acceleration of the decline after the fail at the weekly SMA(50), to below -2 SD, makes a further 20-30% drop look suspiciously likely right now.
You could interpret all this as just the markets accepting the reality of a new American mercantilist trade policy.
What's scarier is if you instead interpret all this as the final rolling-over of US equities before a crash, recession, and eventual cyclical (at least) bear market.
Sunday, June 24, 2018
CBC - Canadian government is looking to price legal marijuana at... wait, what?
$10 a gram?
I thought the whole point of legalizing pot was to put the illegal drug dealers out of business.
But, as it turns out, the Canadian government wants to price legal marijuana at a price above the illegal street price.
Macleans - Ontario's pot strategy includes shutting existing dispensaries. They have hundreds of existing businesses who could sell legal pot in the province, but instead they're trying to drive them all underground.
This, along with the stupid rule that nobody can grow more than four plants, means that
1) the illegal drug trade will continue to make huge profits, and
2) people growing pot on their own will continue to be targets of violent home invasions.
It's hard to figure out what the idiot government is actually intending to do here.
at 7:21 AM
Saturday, June 23, 2018
This story says everything you need to know about American evangelical Christians:
Reuters - evangelicals back pimp for Nevada legislature. No, seriously, he runs brothels in Nevada, and the evangelical Christians love him and want to help elect him.
Friday, June 22, 2018
I bet you did not see this coming!:
Thursday, June 21, 2018
New Deal Demoncrat - poor housing permits points to looming slowdown in GDP. The housing cycle really is the US economic cycle, so this is important:
The preponderance of evidence, based on this morning's report on housing permits and starts, is that increased interest rates and continuing increased prices are beginning to take a bite out of the market.
Should single family permits fail to make a new high for at least one more month, and should the decline be over 5% from peak, I will switch their rating from positive to neutral. And, while the evidence is by no means conclusive, I would say the preponderance of the evidence is that housing is slowing down, and that will have an effect on the economy over the next 6 - 12 months.
Monday, June 18, 2018
Haven't posted charts in a while.
The charts are actually confusing as hell right now:
Emerging markets are tanking.
Gold is tanking.
But gold ex-USD is still doing fine, with no violation of the SMA-50 support. Silver is still rangebound, though the big puke downward last week looks like a warning of a future drop.
And yet, tech stocks are doing fantastic. This is a breakout to a new alltime high.
I guess you could interpret this as a play on American hegemony: the USA rules tech completely, and tech is a field with extreme market power, so any move by the US to impose an oppressive new world order is going to be reflected in a big pop in QQQ and a big drop in, say, EMs.
Saturday, June 16, 2018
Friday, June 15, 2018
Feel good story for you:
Al Jazeera - Iceland in the World Cup. The descendants of Viking warriors and Irish slavegirls, who were chased out of their homeland for murdering too many people and sailed off to live on the world's largest active volcano in the middle of the North Atlantic, and who now while away their days pulling jetliners with their teeth and occasionally winning wars against England, are on their way to World Cup history.
I'm rooting for them all the way. Be especially great if they kicked the snot out of the Russians.
Rush's "2112", played by... wait, what?
Monday, June 11, 2018
It's recession watch time!
Jason Smith - JOLTS data and the 2019 recession. His model suggests that a recession is coming in 2019. Of course, you don't have to believe him, he's an econophysicist.
New Deal Demoncrat - I take issue with the JOLTS data indicating a 2019 recession. YoY hires haven't turned down yet, so no recession.
Jason Smith, Later That Same Day - Oh yeah? Well, so's your mom. Actually, more of a discussion on possible problems with his model.
Far as I'm concerned, the death of the neoliberal world order due to Trumpian stupidity should be able to trigger a recession all on its own, and then there's that whole Italian banking crisis in the making thing.
As for Trumpism, by the way:
New Deal Demoncrat - about the last time a narcissistic moron emperor destroyed the world. Important to note is that Kaiser Wilhelm single-handedly managed to destroy 30 years of empire-building under Otto von Bismarck. Then there was the whole two world wars and extermination of the Jews thing.
Speaking of which, some of Trump's (and Putin's) biggest supporters also seem to hate Jews quite a bit.
I think it's because Jews are great comedians, and right-wing fruitcakes hate comedy.
Tuesday, June 5, 2018
INET - Chanos says bitcoin is a security speculation game. Great quotes from him. The introductory quote says it all:
I’ve found in my research and my teaching that what I would call the “fraud cycle” — instances of large-scale financial fraud over multiple platforms and companies in the financial markets in the modern era (the last 500 years) — follows the financial cycle with a lag. That means that as business and particularly financial markets improve, peoples’ sense of disbelief and caution that they’ve often earned from the previous downturn begins to erode. Schemes that before might have seemed too good to be true begin to be embraced.
And as for the utility of bitcoin:
Bitcoin is still the area for people who are trying to avoid taxation or other examinations of their transactions. That’s one thing where I think it probably still has utility, but the governments have figured that out.
Last year, just as the mania was really going, an early convert who had gotten in early and had made a lot of money wrote this humorous blog about trying to cash in his winnings, if you will. He chronicled telling the exchange that he wanted to convert his bitcoins into U.S. dollars and have them wired into his U.S. bank. It took something like eight or ten days and numerous follow-ups and phone calls. The funniest part was his having to fax his passport to Lithuania. [...]
Using a fax machine to Eastern Europe struck me as kind of the antithesis of what you’re trying to do here. So this is simply a security speculation game masquerading as a technological breakthrough in monetary policy. Someone at Grant’s interest rate conference recently said that it was as if we had intentionally created a “monetary Somalia.”
And an interesting aside comparing the Bushes to the Clintons, which the Democrats should fucking pay attention to when discussing why the working class has abandoned them:
I always joke that the two presidents who have put more executives in jail than all the rest combined were both named Bush. W’s father was instrumental in prosecuting the S&L [Saving and Loan] crooks back in the early ‘90s and put about 3,000 of them in jail. I think they realized that the public was losing money in the stock markets, not just because of the frauds, but because the long dot-com bull market had ended. People were upset. Then when you had the revelations of WorldCom and Enron on top of it, there was a sense that every corporation was crooked and this was going to have exogenous impacts on the economy and the market as a whole. I think they correctly realized that we’ve got to basically show that we’re the cops on the beat. And they did.
Whereas after 2008 under the Democrats:
People in New York and San Francisco and Boston might be fine with everything, but in the South and Midwest, where you’re from and where I’m from, there’s still this general sense that “the bastards got away with it and I’m still suffering.” So there is an exogenous cost to this where people don’t feel that there was justice. They feel that they were taken advantage of by those sharpies on the coasts.
Sunday, June 3, 2018
As you know if you've been here a while, I grow catnip outside for my cat.
Now, catnip grows pairs of leaves along a stem; those pairs then eventually become branching points for arms, which then again grow leaves along them in pairs again. They then branch as well, and so on a few times. And each subsidiary branch, as far as I can tell, then builds its own separate pipe down the main branch to the root bundle below. But everything works in pair symmetry in a typical catnip plant.
Anyway, a few times I've had a mutant catnip, which grows leaves in triplets instead of pairs. The first time, it essentially had no root system, so the structural gene that got transposed to produce triplets must have overwritten the root structure gene.
The second three-leaf catnip plant lived a bit longer, but never grew tall.
But this year:
The plant in the centre is a three-leaf catnip, and it's about the same size as the non-mutant catnip plants around it.
I'll be interested in seeing if it flowers, and if so I might collect all the seeds. Though all my plants this year have just sprouted in the ground without my help from the previous year's seed scatter, thanks to the sunny and wet spring we've had.
But it's neat to see how unstable the structural part of a plant's genetic library is.
As an aside, far to the right of this picture there's what seems to be a mutant mint plant: it's a lighter shade of green, and the leaves are rounder, and it smells of lemon instead of mint. I doubt it's hybridized: it's probably just a devolved mutant mint, because the seed packet I grew it from was crap.
Friday, June 1, 2018
FT - the crypto crisis of faith. Apparently there's this crypto investor clown who's selling his Manhattan townhouse for $30m in bitcoin.
Except he isn't. In reality, he's selling his house for $30m in cash, but $45m if you want to pay in bitcoin instead.
Which means that he feels bitcoin is only worth 2/3 of its cash quoted price. Either because it's so illiquid (unlike currency), or because as his lawyer states it's so volatile (unlike, y'know, currency).
Either that, or he's simply charging a 50% money-laundering fee, which seems to me like one heck of a high risk premium to charge on a mob deal, but then again I don't regularly interact with the mob so what do I know.
But it is a sign that the top has come and gone when the bigshots in the bitcoin pump scam all start converting their bitcoins into real hard assets.
Oh, and McAfee is starting to wonder if he might have to eat his own dick on TV. Forget Otto Rock and his "Daniel Ameduri promised to shut down his company!!1!" story, because an even more fun (and actually relevant outside the world of goldbug pump and dump bullshit) story is how McAfee will wriggle his way out of his promised autophallophagy without cratering bitcoin.
Thursday, May 31, 2018
I just got a YouTube ad where Mike Ford promised me 12% off on my hydro bills.
12%? Wow! Fuck education, environment, and the apparent complete and utter incompetence of a fat clown whose daddy was rich, whose brother was a cokehead, and who can't even string together an intelligent sounding sentence!
A 12% special on Hydro, and the beer in the corner store thing, is all I needed to see in the Conservative platform, I'm hooked.
ADDENDUM: he's also going to use his mystical power to control the international commodity markets to cut the price of gas by 10c per litre! Or, of course, just bankrupt the province by cutting the provincial tax on gas.
at 7:55 AM
Monday, May 28, 2018
FT Alphaville - a crypto stunt gone tragically wrong. It starts out with a bunch of crypto clowns climbing Mount Everest (wait, what?) to bury a hard drive full of their cryptocurrency (wait, why?).
Being as they're on Mount Everest, you should expect that it all goes downhill from there.
Oh, and they're Ukrainian, which means it's even more surprising that something bad happened or that they're morons who let their Sherpas die.
I remain utterly unamazed that people still invest in this.
Sunday, May 27, 2018
Saturday, May 26, 2018
Friday, May 25, 2018
Thursday, May 24, 2018
Hey, so Bitcoin's only $7500 now, eh?
BBC - Trump lawyer paid by Ukraine to arrange White House talks. God, Republicans must like doing the bidding of Russia for this clown to stay in office.
New Deal Democrat - RIP bond market. I doubt it. You need for people to suddenly not have any money to invest, or for worldwide debt to suddenly explode higher at a faster rate than worldwide savings. Interest rates are a demographic phenomenon.
CCN - US government opens probe into Bitcoin price manipulation. And just like that, it's the end.
Tuesday, May 22, 2018
Tim Taylor - on US teachers quitting for other fields. This shows you how desperate they are to leave an utterly fucking dismal field:
"Teachers are leaving their jobs for other careers at a rate that has grown steadily every year in the past three years. ... The majority of educators leaving Educational Services (NAICS Sector 61) are starting careers in the Healthcare and Social Assistance sector. ... For starters, some jobs in Healthcare and Social Assistance, which includes nurses, child care and family assistance services, often require some of the same skills. “Administrative Services,” which includes office workers, is another category that attracts many educators leaving the workforce."
Seriously, healthcare and social assistance? Nursing and child care? Those are fucking horrible jobs that everyone with a choice will avoid. For teachers to go into those fields means their own jobs are dismal. They'd rather compete with Mexican illegal immigrants to change diapers or babysit toddlers for $12/hr jobs than continue teaching.
You've wrecked the teaching profession.
And now, some fuckstick in Texas is saying he wants teachers to carry guns, so that when the next nutcase with an automatic starts shooting up a school, they can heroically protect the lives of our children.
Problem 1: teachers are paid less than police. Police get paid extra cos they can get shot at. Right now, teachers are leaving the profession because they're not even getting paid enough to teach. Do you want to pay teachers more?
Problem 2: Police have the legal power to shoot to kill. Teachers don't. Are you going to rewrite the law to give teachers the right to kill?
Problem 3: Police are blanket indemnified against tortious claims for anything they do while lawfully performing their job. Are you going to indemnify teachers in law?
Problem 4: Police are trained in firearm use. Fuck, movie prop guys are trained in firearm use. Are you going to pay teachers for firearm training and certification?
Problem 5: Police have health coverage so that when they get shot, the health care and rehabilitation cost doesn't bankrupt their family. Do you want to extend that health coverage to evil, socialist, gay-agenda-promoting teachers?
Problem 6: Some American teachers, probably most, have been selected on the basis of teaching ability, not on the basis of the ability to make an instant life-or-death decision in a firefight. What are you going to do? Fire them all and replace them with ex-Marines? Ex-Marines cost more.