Friday, August 25, 2017
Weather.com - OMG megahurricane to destroy Texas. A 12 foot storm surge, 2 feet of rain, and 100mph winds will hit Texas soon.
I assume Trump's response is going to be as pathetic as Bush Jr.'s was to the disaster in New Orleans.
This'll turn Texas against the worthless Republicans. Kinda like Bush's Katrina.
Thursday, August 24, 2017
CNBC - at Jackson Hole, the death of a model.
The Phillips Curve is the central theory for the Fed's dual mandate of limiting inflation and maximizing employment, so it's really going to suck when they realize that inflation and unemployment are not necessarily correlated at all.
What's less likely is that academic economists ever fucking realize that wage growth is dependent on political economy, not some stupid fantastical perfect competition model for labour.
Cos once you realize that labour is paid below its perfect competition equilibrium wage, that firms buy labour in an oligopsonistic market, then really the only sensible thing to do is throw out orthodox general equilibrium altogether, ask "what is the actual econometric data telling us", and then look for entirely fucking sensible political economy explanations that have been around since, oh, Das Fucking Kapital.
Since the start of the 2nd week of August, $VIX has refused to break back below its 20-day Bollinger mean.
That seems to be a fair bit bearish, and definitely contradicts an "all clear" message for the time being.
Also, though they're still well contangoed, VIX monthly futures have been rising for weeks. This makes me think people are buying downside puts to cover all coming months, not just an expected breakdown this week or next week or the coming manufactured September US debt crisis or something stupid coming out of Trump's mouth anytime soon - it's a broader level of concern. Not the kind of concern that makes everyone puke and go to cash, but the kind of concern that makes people cut longs, buy downside puts, and build cash in order to "buy the dip", maybe.
But the VIX futures seem to say the "dip" might be longer in the making than a day.
Though all this, the R2K and $TRAN charts still look bad, which makes the 2% pullback from alltime highs in SPY and QQQ look much worse than their charts would look in isolation. As it is, the negativity in R2K and $TRAN makes SPY and QQQ's hugging of the SMA(50) below their Bollinger means suggest a further breakdown, not an ongoing consolidation.
People were euphoric since Trump won his mandate. Now they're figuring out the euphoria was misplaced. Yes, the fundamental market valuation really depends on the US economy, and Trump can't do much to fuck that up; but the psychological market valuation depends on Republicans learning that they're fucking stupid idiots with no grasp of economics or policy whatsoever.
Expect that to take a while cos Republicans are fucking morons.
Anyway, in honour of this blog's six thousandth post, here's a video of a kitty cat sleeping in a tiny human bed:
Wednesday, August 23, 2017
USA Today - Valerie Plame wants to buy Twitter, ban Trump.
I mean, while she's at it she could also ban the 100,000 Russian troll accounts.
Then again, maybe Twitter should fucking well do this themselves.
der Spiegel - the mysteries of the Russian mindset. Ever wonder why, over and over again, Russia keeps devolving into an illiberal fascist plutocracy with utterly no citizen input? Or why Yabloko disappeared as a political party? This article explains the Russian mind:
Several months ago, I had a dispute about this with respected filmmaker and theater director Andrei Konchalovsky. He is turning 80 this year, has made some of Russia's best films and has lived in Hollywood for a long time. Despite our disagreements, we were very close to one another in our views of many things. Konchalovsky says Russians have retained the soul of a peasant over the centuries, arguing that Russians never became citizens in the true sense of the word and always positioned themselves in opposition to the state, because the government is always trying to take something away from them. At the same time, he argues, Russians are so enormously patient that they can more easily accept injustices. He also argues that Russian thinking is Manichean -- that Russians only know black and white.
NY Times - Mitch McConnell realizes Trump is an idiot.
Of course, the Republican party is to blame.
1. The Republican party has spent 40 years pandering to the lowest common denominator, fanning the flames of division and feeding crass populism.
2. Um... no, #1 is really all you need to know.
New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. Though it's not where the economy is now that's important. It's what dismal hole Trump is leading the economy into that matters.
Monday, August 21, 2017
Daily Express, the Daily Mail's Daily Mail - solar eclipse: panic in Salem.
Uh... just in case you're worried, the last time there was a total solar eclipse was March 9, 2016. It was visible across Sumatra, Borneo and Sulawesi.
And no, the end of the world didn't happen in Sumatra, Borneo and Sulawesi.
Then there was one on March 20, 2015, visible from the Faroe Islands and just off the coast of Iceland.
Iceland, a supervolcano, did not blow up destroying the world on March 20, 2015. If it did I'm sure we would have heard about it. The Faroe Islands, meanwhile, didn't suffer a zombie attack.
Previous to that, Nov 3 2013 saw a total eclipse pass across Africa. Nothing happened, though in the Gulf of Guinea the island of Fernando Poo continued to make people giggle.
And so on, about every year or so on average, the world failed to end with a total solar eclipse.
Just not in Jesusland USA, for several decades, til now.
But "a Wyoming Woman" says it will! OMG!
K2 Radio - Wyoming woman says Yellowstone will erupt during the eclipse!!!!!! Quote:
Darrah Perez of Riverton is a believer in signs and portents, and has, she said, had a revelation. The total eclipse of the sun, which will pass over the United States on August 21st, will trigger the eruption of the Yellowstone Caldera, sometimes known as the supervolcano.
The caldera measures 35/45 miles and is full of pressurized, molten lava. The Yellowstone Supervolcano is the volcanic field which produced the latest three supereruptions from the Yellowstone hotspot; it also produced one additional smaller eruption, thereby creating West Thumb Lake 174,000 years ago. The three super eruptions occurred 2.1 million, 1.3 million, and approximately 630,000 years ago.
Experts say the ash cloud from a full-bore eruption would blanket most of the United States with devastating results.
But, scientists say the chances of this are remote for the foreseeable future.
Well... who ya gonna believe? "A Wyoming woman" who "believes in signs and portents", or scientists?
I'm amazed that this story hasn't made it to Zerohedge yet, considering they've ran a whole flood of news on a pending Yellowstone eruption recently, and this is most definitely something that they can blame on international Jewry.
PS for those of you in Ontario, an eclipse will be passing right over us in April 2024, so you'll get a chance to see something better then.
I intend to carry a "the end is nigh" sign on that day.