Saturday, May 6, 2017

Weekly indicators: even steel and rail are positive ffs

NDD - weekly indicators. Everything is positive pretty much. Quote:

Among long leading indicators, Treasuries, corporate bonds, mortgage rates, and growth in real estate loans remain neutral. The yield curve and money supply remain positive. This week purchase mortgages improved to positive, while refinance mortgage applications remained negative. The two more leading Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Indexes are both positive.

Short leading indicators, including stock prices, jobless claims, industrial commodities, the regional Fed new orders indexes, spreads, staffing, Financial conditions, and oil and gas prices are all positive. The US$ is neutral. Gas usage remains negative.

The coincident indicators are generally positive, including Gallup and Johnson Redbook consumer spending, rail, the TED spread, tax withholding, and both measures of shipping. The only negative is LIBOR.

Despite faltering in monthly measures of production and spending probably due to stagnant real wages since last summer, the nowcast for the economy is still positive. The longer term forecast is neutral to positive.

April employment report

New Deal Demoncrat - April employment report. Summary includes:

In sum, we still need to move this +0.7% off the sidelines and into actual employment, and also add another +0.6% or so from underemployment to complete employment before we can say that the the economy is operating at "full employment." And we are almost 8 years out from the beginning of this expansion, and probably a lot closer to the beginning of the next downturn. This is simply not an economy that in secular terms is working for the average American.

But that's great for corporations, so buy the S&P and quit your whining.

Though yeah no seriously I'm starting to think you'll probably be able to buy S&P at 2400 again in a few years. Republican administrations typically fuck up the US economy badly.

Friday, May 5, 2017

Friday videos: almost certainly you've forgotten this song

This reminds me of listening to CHUM-FM's "Top 1004 songs" every Xmas for the only chance to hear this song, once a year, at about #857:

That cunt from Peru never plays good videos like this for you, now, does he?

Thursday, May 4, 2017

Scary shit

Special containment procedures, SCP 1981:


"For the first time we have risen, and I see we are being consumed. I see circles that are not circles. Billions of dead souls inside containment. Unravellers have eaten country's moral fabric, turning hearts into filth. I'm from a kingdom level above human. What does that yield? A hokey smile that damns an entire nation. There is no hope."

Monday, May 1, 2017

still quiet here...

My marks are slowly rolling in. Seems I got an A in political economy, that's nice. I ended with a B+ in advanced macro, and that was mostly cos the prof was generous with me.

I have 6 weeks off to vegetate before doing a summer class, but I'm going to be doing a bit of reading. Right now it's Daron Acemoglu's Why Nations Fail, yet another of those great institutionalist books that nobody in any economics faculty will ever suggest anyone read.

Other reading on deck includes Branko Milanovic, Dani Rodrik, Barry Eichengreen, JK Galbraith and Douglass North (again, great economists who nobody in the faculty will want me to read), a bunch of stuff on China, and a bunch of stuff on history of economics and economic history. Also I have to read a couple textbooks on transportation geography and intro geology to get ready for next year, and maybe install ArcGIS and play with it; I'm also hoping to watch some videos on advanced econometrics and complexity theory.

Oh and do work around the house.

As for gold miners: y'know, there's a big problem with GDX and GDXJ. They've attracted too much money, so they've swamped out their underlyings. seems to have diverged massively from GDX because they (as far as I know, you go ahead and check their documentation if you're interested)trade based on options and not based on stocks. If that's so, then the market for gold miners is broken in a microstructure sort of way, and I want to stay out because none of the technical signals can be interpreted properly.

As for the US economy:

New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. Basically everything is fine, except stagnant real wages which ultimately mean the US economy can never grow strongly.

I'll see if I can catch up on the rest of the news in the next few days for you, but right now I'm enjoying not having to work at all.