Wednesday, December 27, 2017

Year-end post


It being the Xmas season, there's not a whole lot of news for me to repost, thus the blog has been quiet for a little bit.

I finished my exams, but the university's system seems to have crashed, so I can't see my marks. I know I got 2 A+ and an A-, but my other two marks are still up in the air.

I might have gotten as bad as a B+ in Metrics II, because I drew a blank with "unit root", which was 15% of the mark. Frankly the reason I drew a blank was because I've realized economics doesn't have a clue how to do math beyond grade 12 algebraic manipulation, they just make shit up.

I mean seriously, I was taught grad-entrance econometrics by someone who didn't know how to take the determinant of a 2x2 matrix or how to calculate confidence intervals of a log-linear regression using exponentials. "Graduate economics requires strong math skills, including Measure Theory and Real Analysis" my ass!

I might have aced the Monetary exam, though, and that's what I'm very curious about.

Right now I have to decide whether to buy a new computer so I can run ArcGIS at home: my existing computer is old and probably can't handle it. But something I really can't stand is the tedium of porting everything over to a new computer, so unfortunately I'm putting it off for now. Thankfully I can use the arctic cold gripping Ontario as an excuse for not wanting to leave the house.

I mean, if I wanted to live in Winnipeg I'd fucking move there.

Anyway, this winter I'm going to have nothing but geography classes, mostly GIS-oriented stuff. I'm coming across a lot of World Bank books on economic geography where they're heavily applying GIS to economic analysis, and that really interests me because of how non-ideological and pro-empirical it is, compared to all of academic economics nowadays. So I'll definitely be doing grad school in geography, although I still really like the look of the Ryerson International Econ & Finance MA program.

As for the markets:

S&P is up hard for the year, but apparently it's due to massively increased profits, so I wouldn't necessarily listen to the clowns who say 2018 will be a bad year. This market is, fundamentally, not the 90s, nor is it the 80s, nor is it the 70s: kleptocracy now rules, and before the long-term destruction of the economy is completed we first have to see the completion of the great redistribution to the rich, and that means high economic rents for large American corporations for the time being.

You can buy China and buy EU all you want next year to "reduce US risk exposure", but frankly FXI's ten year chart looks pathetic for such a growing country, and nobody's ever made money on the EU except for the kleptocrat class.

Gold was walked down to the low $1200s this month, but it the action on the chart strongly suggests to me that it must have just been an orchestrated flush. My guess is next year it breaks thru $1400 and stays there. If I were you I'd ignore any TA who takes this month's spike-down seriously: in TA, there are some signals that you have to read the other way round.

As for politics:

Stay tuned for another year of Trump. As for the sensible country in the world, Young Trudeau is still unbeatable, he'll be with us forever. Ontario will probably elect that Conservative moron, because Horwath is a useless clown running a bourgeois pseudolabour party, and frankly Kathleen Wynne is the only good thing that the Liberals have in their favour.

I could see that Conservative clown screwing up the election by shooting off his mouth about evil lesbians or promising free tuition for religious schools, but frankly I don't think he can do enough damage to his party to lose.

As for the blog:

Interestingly, some clowns with French IPs have been trying to DoS my blog for a while now. I assume they're probably Russians. Apparently, according to an article I read a week ago, all the good Russians are still leaving the country in droves. In the long run, this does great damage to the country's IQ distribution, but we pretty much knew that already. Good job, Pooty-Poot! You've permanently destroyed Russia!

So, that's basically it from me for this year. I'm still going to be here, the blog will still just be my opinions about stuff, and there'll still be good music videos every Friday.


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