Monday, December 4, 2017

Short Monday morning market comment


OK, so if you look up a chart for SPY, you'll see it's going parabolic right now.

It seems a bit stupid for the S&P 500 to fly up 83 points in just 3 weeks, especially after a very strong year.

Yes, the US economy is doing fine. Yes, blah blah tax breaks, though those were baked in already over the past year. But 10% since August? Come off it. Things are getting silly.

Weekly SPY RSI(14) is 85. Daily SPY RSI(14) is 77. Not that it can't continue, but it's not very healthy looking.

It almost makes me want to start saying "Shiller P/E!!" to everyone, and you know what I think about Shiller P/E, right?

Might need to switch to another equity market come next year, cos I doubt there's anything left on the table for SPY.

And when I look at the weekly chart for GLD and GDX, I'm not particularly concerned. Still looks like it's bottoming, to me.

If you want to predict where $USD is going, you should figure out what elementary trade theory says a trillion dollars in debt-funded tax breaks should do to a currency's value.

I'm not interested in doing that because I have a ten page essay on minimum income due next Monday. So, it's up to you to do the research.

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