Tuesday, November 28, 2017

More Bitcoin hype

Even Business Insider is writing about it....

BI - bitcoin price shoots over $9900. Quotes, with commentary:

As for how high bitcoin will go, billionaire businessman Mark Cuban told Business Insider the coin will continue to push higher as retail investors pour into the space and folks with large bitcoin holdings continue to treat it more as a collectible than a currency.

"The number of people opening up new accounts and buying bitcoin, even fractionally, is skyrocketing," he said.

Dunno why they interviewed Mark Cuban instead of someone who knows something, but he raises a point.

What happens when they run out of people to open accounts? NASDAQ 2000 happens, is what.

"Yet the people who have it as a true store of value have no reason to sell it as long as demand continues."

Yeah, and then what?

See, one problem is that the bitcoins in your account aren't worth $9900 (or whatever it is as you're reading this).

The marginal bitcoin is worth $9900. And the price of the marginal bitcoin will be different when there are more available relative to demand.

The stuff in your account is only worth what you can sell it for. That's what a "true store of value" means, Mark.

Since the list of merchants that accept bitcoin is still relatively small, so-called holders (or hodlers as they are referred to in bitcoin circles) don't have many places where they can spend their coins, either.

"They can't spend it, so they keep it," Cuban said.

That doesn't make it a store of value or an asset, then. It makes bitcoin a collectible.

"If big holders don’t sell and the number of Coinbase users keeps going up, the sky is the limit."

Um, no, the sky isn't the limit. Earth has a finite investor population, and there is a finite level of reasonable portfolio allocation to bitcoin.

Total value of all the world's gold is $7.5T or so. Total value of all the world's equities is $80T or so.

If total blockchain cap goes over that, then it will have become unbelievably silly. And, parenthetically, it'll also be hilarious to watch as a significant portion of the world's wealth then vanishes overnight.

I don't think it can get that far, but then again I believe humans aren't, in the aggregate, total idiots.

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