Friday, September 22, 2017

Friday evening news


Gotta do a load of econometrics homework this weekend so I don't bomb on the first test.

But first, here's the news!:


Pole Mic Spains - cash is oversold. This guy's even a weirder weirdo than Klendathu Capitalist, but if you're going to get your market opinions from someone it may as well be a weirdo.


PIIE - the Fed buys into secular stagnation. Trust me when I say this is the most important market story right now:
The FOMC's estimate of the so-called neutral federal funds rate had declined from 4¼ percent a few years ago to 3 percent earlier this year and is now only 2¾ percent. With the federal funds rate currently near 1¼ percent, the Fed is almost halfway through its tightening cycle (assuming that the economy does not significantly overheat in the meantime). Moreover, it is possible that the projected neutral rate will decline further, as the FOMC ponders research that suggests the long-run neutral rate might be as low as 2 percent.
Their Fed funds rate has been going up slower than their estimate of the neutral rate has been coming down. So about a year from now, they'll have raised rates up to 2% at the same time as they'll be estimating that the neutral rate has dropped below 2%... which means a Volcker recession in 2020.


Noahpinion - let's whine about the future. I agree entirely:
Our modern society is totally wired and connected, but also totally unequal - "the future is here, it's just not evenly distributed", as Gibson was fond of saying. Hackers, cyberwarfare, and online psyops are a regular part of our political and economic life. Billionaires build spaceships and collaborate with the government to spy on the populace, while working-class people live out of shipping crates and drink poison water. Hobbyists are into body modifications and genetic engineering, while labs are researching artificial body parts and brain-computer interfaces. The jetpack is real, but there's only one of it, and it's owned by a rich guy. Artificial intelligences trade stocks and can beat humans at Go, deaf people can hear, libertarians and criminals funnel billions of dollars around the world with untraceable private crypto-money. A meme virus almost as crazy as the one in Snow Crash swept an insane man to the presidency of the United States, and in Texas you can carry a sword on the street like a street samurai in Neuromancer. There are even artificial pop stars and murderous cyborg super-athletes.

We are, roughly, living in the world the cyberpunks envisioned.
Of course, like any article, it gets better after he says "but...".


Niskanen Center - black liberty matters. A nice big article on how libertarians are actually closet racists, because all they really want is liberty for white people.


Vox - a new study debunks one of the arguments against basic income. One more win for fully automated luxury gay space communism!:



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