Wednesday, July 19, 2017
On NFLX vs JPM
The market story of the past month was the massive puking of tech stocks, and the supposed rebalancing into banks. The idea was, interest rates are going up, so you want to own banks, and tech has "gone too far", so you have to puke tech.
Well, compare and contrast:
CNBC - Netflix smashes earnings estimates.
Marketcrotch - banks' earnings languish due to the inherent stupidity of the elite.
And now QQQ is advancing into blue sky again, while owning bank stocks now makes you look as stupid as the coke-snorting arrogant bourgeois morons who are losing a fortune for these banks on their prop desks.
Why was the June thesis stupid?
Because since 2002, you would have made a goddamn fortune if you'd owned AAPL, GOOG, NFLX and AMZN (and some biotech, railways and the consumer leaders, like DIS, MCD, MC, SBUX etc).
Meanwhile, even in the 2004-2006 heyday of banking ponzi, where they literally were allowed to print money, you wouldn't have made anything owning the big banks.
Past performance is not an indicator of future success; but it is a pretty damn good bet in the case where entire industry #1 has been a business failure for decades, while entire industry #2 has made the USA the undisputed world leader in 21st century internet technology.
Don't invest in banks, because they themselves don't know how to invest.* Invest in tech because that'll always be the future.
* - actually, Canadian banks are good granny stocks. So Canadian banks are okay.