Saturday, May 6, 2017

Weekly indicators: even steel and rail are positive ffs

NDD - weekly indicators. Everything is positive pretty much. Quote:

Among long leading indicators, Treasuries, corporate bonds, mortgage rates, and growth in real estate loans remain neutral. The yield curve and money supply remain positive. This week purchase mortgages improved to positive, while refinance mortgage applications remained negative. The two more leading Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Indexes are both positive.

Short leading indicators, including stock prices, jobless claims, industrial commodities, the regional Fed new orders indexes, spreads, staffing, Financial conditions, and oil and gas prices are all positive. The US$ is neutral. Gas usage remains negative.

The coincident indicators are generally positive, including Gallup and Johnson Redbook consumer spending, rail, the TED spread, tax withholding, and both measures of shipping. The only negative is LIBOR.

Despite faltering in monthly measures of production and spending probably due to stagnant real wages since last summer, the nowcast for the economy is still positive. The longer term forecast is neutral to positive.

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