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Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Chartwise, here were are


OK, now the market has decided to become interesting.

$VIX:


Exploding higher now. That's nice. People have been going short $VIX through XIV a lot over the past few months, when they should understand you only short $VIX right after it's spiked and the futures curve has gone back to even, then sell as it comes back down. As these guys try to lock in their profits or get out before the collapse, it'll flood the futures market and possibly produce a really big spike.

Which we can trade.

SPY:


That is an unambiguously negative chart right now. It screams top. Over the past month MACD hasn't been able to turn up, and that last bounce off the SMA(50) only produced a feeble upmove that has now fallen flat. Now's the time for some fun, possibly.

It would be really funny if the entirety of the 10% move since the election gets given back. It shouldn't, because the 10% move makes perfect sense after a 2-year sideways consolidation no matter who's in the White House.

But if we lose some of that Nov-Mar easy money run, the people betting on easy money in the market will find out it's actually hard after all. Guess what? Trump didn't make you rich after all.

And what about the PMs?:


That touch of the SMA(50) yesterday, with a fakeout on the MACD, followed by today's good price action, is very positive. And we're very close to a higher high.

And you've been reading some of those guys who've thrown in the towel on gold and the miners, right? So was March just a cleansing of the market? Are we going up now?

GDX:


That looks very positive, how GDX got kicked down below the SMA(50) last month, then fought back up, then spent 3 weeks trying to break back through the SMA(50). Especially with all the gold boosters spending an entire month blathering on about how gold was done. RSI is still healthy and MACD is only at zero, so we have a setup for a decent run if only we can find some volume to back it up.

Looks like goldbugs might have fun for a while.

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