Friday, April 7, 2017

And as for gold, and Trump

Oh and meanwhile, gold popped above $1260, and TA-wise that's bullish. Close above $1265 and you have a higher high, which means the bull market is intact.

However, you could legitimately respond that it only happened cos Trump fired 50 missiles at Syria. Which actually was a smart thing for him to do, no really I'm impressed here, and you have to wonder if the Russkies are still feeling so smug now that their puppet is bombing their murderous dictator ally and the materiel that Russia just gave him.

In fact, Trump firing 50 missiles at Syria will also change the political calculus in North Korea, and will also make an impact on Xi Jinping. So all around, firing 50 missiles at Syria is unambiguously positive for the USA, because it means they're out of the business of cuddles and fluffy bunnies and in the business of bombing your shit from orbit if they feel like it.

The US has a responsibility to the rest of the world to not be Sweden. Good for them for figuring that out.

Credit where credit is due, this response certainly didn't come from Trump. You could tell from his presser about the nerve gas attack that he's starting to realize he's in way over his head with this gig, and being the president isn't a childish game like being a reality TV clown after all.

I'd expect the 50 missiles idea came from Mad Dog Mattis, or someone like him. And Mattis isn't an idiot, he's actually a guy who knows how to do military diplomacy successfully. Step one is let people know you're a little bit crazy, your armed forces are larger and more advanced than the rest of the world's combined, and you're just looking for an excuse to bomb people from orbit.

And with one launch Mattis has knocked the world back on its heels. So good for him.

So as for gold, barring any escalation in Syria, which has suddenly turned into a losing proposition for the Russkies, I wouldn't put much into this pop except maybe as a chance for gold bears to put on new shorts at a good price. And putting on new shorts can turn out bad, or it can turn out good.

As far as the Russkies go, their tail is now between their legs, and they'll probably cut and run in Syria now. The Americans won't suddenly get involved in that conflict because there's no profit to them in removing Assad; but now they've demonstrated they're happy to blow your shit up from orbit for any reason, and that is good enough to change international relations in a positive way.


  1. Interesting take. The problem for Trump is that lobbing bombs doesn't necessarily alter the fact that as a leader he looks confused and weak. If I were the Republicans my end game would be a deal with Trump, lover of deals, where he could resign but look good doing it somehow.

    1. Yabut if he's a leader who looks confused and weak, he also likes launching cruise missiles at the country who put him into power.

      Poor impulse control plus world's largest army is actually a recognized international relations strategy.