Thursday, March 2, 2017

Some newsreading

Thursday news:

Calculated Risk - vehicle sales over 17M SAAR. I mean, sure, the market has run up way too far way too fast. But I never see a scary, negative piece of economic data coming out of the US.

FT Alphaville - an anti-gay ETF. Wait, I thought that was GLD?

Foreign Policy - Trump looks to bypass WTO rules. And you probably can, if you find enough lawyers. And if not, Canada's experience with softwood shows that at least you can keep illegal tariffs in place for years on end while the dispute runs through the system.

der Spargel - meet Donald Trump's main strategist. We're through the looking glass here people!

Gavyn Davies - whatever happened to secular stagnation? Whether or not it's actually happening, the fact is people aren't talking about it. And expectations being a big part of economic growth, not talking about it might alone be enough to make it go away. No, really.


  1. The rule is " Three steps and a stumble", so when the Fed raises for the third time, probably in June 2017, that would mean the end to the bull market.

    1. Here are some other rules to ponder:

      1. Bull markets don't die of old age.
      2. The equity market is not the economy.
      3. In the US, the housing cycle is the business cycle.
      4. A shift in economic paradigm requires an investment spike.
      5. We are not in the Volcker era where the Fed purposefully kills the economy with rate hikes.
      6. Don't analogize across a time series where the underlying analogy doesn't hold.
      7. numerology isn't economic analysis, though ok at least it's still got better predictive power than Real Business Cycle theory.