Monday, March 20, 2017

Gold setup


When it broke above the SMA(50) (blue line) in January, that was good. +1.

Then it came down and lightly touched the SMA(50) intraday, and that generated a successful test of a breakout.  +2.

Then it sailed up to the SMA(200) (red line), where it turned around at the end of February. That was the market's way of saying "don't get too hasty". That's nothing to worry about, it's basic TA trading. +2.

So then it fell quickly back down to the SMA(50) in early March. That would possibly have been worrying. +2.

But it wasn't able to crash right through the SMA(50). Nor was it able to definitively lose $1200. Those both showed strength. +3.

Then it had a decent-volume day last Wednesday where it reacted to an obvious Fed announcement by popping $15, back up to the SMA(50). That looks good, because it makes me think the early-March sellers got caught on the wrong side of the boat by betting that gold was all done. +4.

Now, in the medium term, the question is whether gold can continue upward thru $1240, triggering a positive MACD crossover in the process. If it does, it starts looking tasty again and goldbugs are happy; if it doesn't, and it instead crashes back thru the SMA(50) and down to $1200, then dumb people will start saying "OMG head and shoulders pattern!", which it isn't because a H&S is not a continuation pattern.

In the somewhat longer term, if gold gets above the SMA(200), then things will be good. And if that drags the SMA(50) above the SMA(200), then things get really good.


  1. a little Eric Coffin at PDAC

  2. and some John Kaiser on gold juniors

    1. He still like Nevada Exploration? BTW, I see it popped from 10c to 60c in 2015, what's up with that?

    2. Don't know. All these spec stocks are gambling and game playing until and if they approach production.

    3. Well the theory behind NXE was really interesting. The idea was that past exploration only found the part of the Carlin trend that was exposed by basin and range formation, and NXE was going to find the rest thru surface water analysis.

      Dunno if that's the story at all anymore.

      Dunno either if a Carlin deposit at depth is even economical at all.