Tuesday, January 3, 2017
Goldbuggery to start the new year
Well, this semester I'm taking an overload, and it includes a 4th year theory course and two heavy-reading courses, so you might be getting a lot less commentary from me til April.
As for right now, I'm looking at gold and the miners and wondering:
1) Last year gold's bottom was conclusively printed in December, followed by a long ride upward. People might expect to see the same thing again this year.
2) Gold's post-Trump November puke was too far too fast, considering you don't even know what Trump is going do do. Fuck, that clown Kudlow might convince The Orange One to move to a gold standard! There's a long way to get back to $1260, and gold might drift up there.
3) Gold is too far below its SMA(50), and it spent an entire month aggressively dragging that average down. That should beg for an upward correction.
4) more peripherally, UST yields also moved too far too fast given the lack of actual policy change. Treasury yields are NOT I repeat NOT dependent on future debt & spending outlook: they're dependent on the worldwide savings/investment equilibrium, and Trump certainly ain't gonna be moving that in an FDR direction!
5) the silver and GDX charts show a far bit of accumulation the past two days, and I'm not sure that's all just rebalancing. SLV has already retaken its (admittedly downward-trending) Bollinger mean, and GDX is flirting with its SMA(50). That seems to at least hint at a deluded level of hopefulness among the goldbug world, probably informed by point (1) above.
6) Russia AfD Le Pen.
7) Indians and Chinese are the only people who buy gold, dumbass.
That there is just some stuff for you to ponder. I have no big call on gold and the miners yet, but did buy myself a 10% exposure today.