Friday, November 11, 2016

my opinion on US banking

XLF is +4SD right now on massive buying volume post-election.

Apparently people think the banks will make a shit-ton of money if Trump repeals Dodd-Frank.

Unfortunately for them, it'll take a lot of time to repeal Dodd-Frank, even with full Republican control.

And if it's repealed, all that'll mean is another massive banking crisis down the line, because bankers are coke-headed fools.

Seriously, in the 2002-2006 period, it was pointless to own any US banking stock. You wanted to own transports (UNP, CP, CN), fast food (MCD, YUM, SBUX), internet (APPL, GOOG, AMZN, PCLN), tech (CHKP, CTSH, BRCM, WDC), pharma (AGN, BIIB, CELG, GILD), oil & gas (CBT, CHK), base mining for a bit (FCX, VALE, POT) and a bit of retail (COST, HD, MA, V).

The only time anything bankish was a screaming buy pre-Obama was when the banking system started to collapse under their own massive fraud, and then what you bought was any ETF you could find that shorted them into nothingness.

So as far as I'm concerned, a one-week 10% move in the financials is a screaming fucking short.

Someday. Maybe not right now.

Downside support for GDX is not $22. Here's why.

I strongly suspect that support for GDX is not $22. Here's why.

When GDX pivoted back up from $22 back in late May, it was actually only testing the support of the SMA(50). It had no interest in the price level, it was looking at trend. Since August, GDX has failed to retake the SMA(50) three times, and that bodes ill for its future.

And your actual price-volume cluster happened through March around $19-$20. That was when the gold miner comeback story started to gain traction.

The gold miners have been overbought relative to gold (look at the upward-trending GLD:GDX) since the August gold peak. They need to work off more than 5%.

And all the "blah blah inflation" yabber in the market now, after years of "blah blah deflation", means an awful lot of money has still to rotate into something new, and a lot of the money is still able to take profits on gold miners, and so it will.

And copper needs to get beaten down from its silly position, and that'll drag silver down, and that'll drag gold miners down because reasons.

That's how real technical analysis is done, my bitches.

Friday video: apropos of nothing

Apropos of absolutely nothing at all:


What's our most important question about the Trump presidency?

What are we all wondering about?

Thursday, November 10, 2016

Market comment

Took off the rest of my leverage this morning. Thank you, Donald Trump, for paying this year's tuition, my dental expenses, and my vet bills. And some booze money, which I'll need.

Yesterday the S&P surged, but I suspect a lot of it was driven by hasty "oh shit" sector reallocation into a somewhat too-thin book, so now that the big money is going to want to also rotate out of Hillary stocks, it might be a while before S&P has the setup in its underlying to break out of its range. After all, $TRAN is +3SD with an RSI(10) of 80 and SPY is +2SD, and they might have gotten there too fast.

I'm a bit bummed that Horizons killed off a few of its leveraged ETFs in the past couple years. Copper, for example, has flown much too far and with no confirmation from silver or oil: I'd like to short the fuck out of it, but is gone (if it ever existed - I think it did).

Why short copper?

Well, if your long thesis is that Donald is going to build infrastructure despite an anti-spending congress, why do you think the infrastructure is going to be wiring? And just how much of a copper shortage does the world face, anyway? And isn't it Chinese demand that drives copper?

And if your thesis is that with Trump in the White House we're closer to the end of the expansion, which means higher inflation, then why don't you perhaps wait a bit til he's actually inaugurated and we can get a feel for what policy he's really going to pursue?

It's still just a crackhead-driven market.

$UST10Y and copper have moved too frickin' far to fast, and I'd love the opportunity to lean against either move. But as it is, all I can do for the time being is hold my S&P single longs, hold some cash and wait for opportunity, and begin an experimental short of the gold miners.

GDX is close to a fat load of pivots, and anyway it should also tank if either the S&P has finished its upmove or the "inflation wooh!" trade finishes. Also, the positions taken during the pre-election surge should start getting unwound by now, I think.

Oh look, QQQ's already breaking down.

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

post-Trump opinion

So Trump won, that's funny.

There was actually someone knowledgeable on CNBC this morning, who I guess was their election coverage head statistician or something, who noted that Trump won by taking the Bernie primary states: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan I guess and New Hampshire sort of.

So I guess that makes sense: I'm the one who's been saying that the working class has been fucked over since Reagan, and in a way maybe it's nice for them to finally vote angry and fuck stuff up.  Hope it works out for them, but I don't think it will.

This election won't get the attention of the worldwide kleptocracy, because Brexit didn't get their attention either.

My big question right now is, what's Trump actually going to do? Sure, if he's Mister Consummate Dealmaker, and if he's really a party-unaffiliated outsider unconstrained by beltway loyalties, and given he won without owing anyone in the Republican party anything, then yeah, he could push through a whole shit-ton of real reforms to benefit the working class who voted for him, and actually make 'Merica yooooge again.

He could throw his weight around like a loose cannon, telling the WTO to go fuck themselves and re-negotiating the US trade position to remake the US as the global economic superpower that tells everyone else what to do. The EU, Mexico, Japan and everyone else would just have to eat what he serves 'em if they want any access to the US market at all. (This isn't radical: it's pretty standard & old-fashioned hegemonic trade policy, and normal to pursue if you are an unopposable superpower that cares more about its economy than its transnational corporations.)

And he could do all this by telling Republicans and Democrats that they're both his bitch, after all he won, and if Ryan & Paul don't work with him then he damn well has what it takes to pick off 30 Republican congressmen and 5 Republican senators and add them to a cross-aisle deal with the Democrats for whatever he wants. You gotta admit he proved during the campaign that he only deals with people who tell him what he wants to hear.

So he can make deals with both sides, and he can do it his way: sure, I'll nominate your nutcase Supreme Court Justice, but in return you lift the debt ceiling forever and let me pass a trillion dollar infrastructure program. I've been in the same room watching a deal-making real estate mogul in action, and that's how deals get done. Maybe he ends up doing that.


Then again, maybe he's a dumb-ass who's in over his head, and the Republicans will use him to gut financial regulation, repeal all taxes, and pretty much flush the country down the toilet like they want to do.

In any case, it was disconcerting to see US futures puke limit-down overnight, given how leveraged-long I was, ha ha.

But as it turns out, now everything's up nicely: SPX is up 1%, $VIX has really frickin' cratered and I wish Google would let me post a chart for you because it's awe-inspiring, $VIX futures near months are unbackwardated but at ~15 and 16 which means there's still a lot of money possibly to make on XIV, and there are even some nice deals out there (does anyone at all really believe Magna is threatened by a Trump presidency?)

And even the goldbugs got handed their ass, buying gold & the miners at the open. I'm sorry, Cletus, but that big red candle that's printing on the chart right now, which constitutes a dismal failure at the SMA(50), does not look good for you.

So, we'll see. In any case, next time you hear Democrats whining about how the Supreme Court is going to be 6-3 conservative in 4 years' time, 'splain to them that the working class was a gimme but they decided to serve Wall Street for 16 years instead.

Anyway, with some of my market winnings I'm going to go buy that special post-election deal at Bespoke Investment Group, then go back to studying for midterms.

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

quick note about today's US election

Women make up 51% of the vote in the US. And today they have a choice between the first woman president, or an orange sleazeball with 3 pet wives that would make them vomit if ever he was in the same room with them.

That's all you need to know.

Shorted $VIX and went double-long S&P and Q on Friday morning, btw. I'm sure the December Fed meeting will be the next panty-piddle, but that's a month from now: today we party.

Sunday, November 6, 2016

Comey: you remember that Hillary email thing? Yeah, about that....

The Guardian - Comey announces FBI's findings on Clinton emails. What, already?:

The FBI has determined that a new batch of emails apparently related to Hillary Clinton’s private email server “have not changed our conclusion” that she committed no criminal wrongdoing, FBI director James Comey told congressional leaders in a letter on Sunday.

Big fat nothingburger, just like everyone thought.


Obama burns Trump for having his Twitter taken away from him:

This illustrates how much of a moron you have to be to vote for Trump.