Saturday, November 5, 2016

Trump is such a fucking retard

Its one hell of a high bar for Trump news worth posting round here, since there's no need to repost the inanity that he's accomplished so far, but this one takes the cake:

WaPo - Trump refuses to pay his pollster. WTF?:

Donald Trump's hiring of pollster Tony Fabrizio in May was viewed as a sign that the real estate mogul was finally bringing seasoned operatives into his insurgent operation.

But the Republican presidential nominee appears to have taken issue with some of the services provided by the veteran GOP strategist, who has advised candidates from 1996 GOP nominee Bob Dole to Florida Gov. Rick Scott. The Trump campaign's latest Federal Election Commission report shows that it is disputing nearly $767,000 that Fabrizio's firm says it is still owed for polling.

No wonder he's campaigning in Minnesota instead of trying to shore up Ohio and Michigan: Trump is fucking over the one guy who he needs to provide him with the data necessary to run a campaign. I wonder if he's even getting any data anymore, or if Fabrizio is hanging him out to dry for non-payment?

Even though he was hired in May, the campaign did not make any payments to Fabrizio until September, when his firm received nearly $624,000, federal filings show. Trump's finance reports show that the campaign owes the firm an additional $55,300 on top of the $766,756.67 in debt that it is contesting.

This is so half-assed that the only person who could possibly support Trump at this point is a fucking idiot with no clue how to do business who has never had any job where he was required to do a decent day's work.

Thursday, November 3, 2016

What the heck to do with this market, eh?

Well, Google all of a sudden has taken away my ability to post charts again, because they can't code a blog platform worth shit.

So I'll just say that SPY has been -2SD for a couple days now, and is at RSI=31. $VIX has printed 8 consecutive white candles, and is RSI 74.

On the weekly chart, $VIX is already at +2SD, and the only times it gets higher than that are during periods of extensive panty-piddling.

But yet $TRAN looks fine and XLF looks fine.

So what to do? Go double long on Friday? Shorting $VIX might be a bit of a widowmaker, since the futures are now backwardated.

Anyway, there's a load of opportunity staring me in the face here. Maybe I'll just buy on Tuesday before the close.

Trump's not going to win unless the FBI can manufacture something new about Hillary, and they'll put that out this Friday afternoon if they do at all. But I doubt that'll happen.

Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Haha, more fun pictures

I got all day today, I'm waiting for an appointment.


The Independent - presidential candidate has destroyed thousands of emails in contravention of court orders!

Oh my god! This is bigger than Watergate! This person should be locked up before they can continue their criminal enterprise in the White House!

Trump used borderline illegal tax loophole

CBC - Trump used dubious tax loophole to avoid casino-related taxes. Quote:

Donald Trump avoided paying potentially hundreds of millions of dollars in taxes in a way even his own lawyers considered questionable, The New York Times reported Monday.

The newspaper said the manoeuvre also may explain how Trump posted a one-year loss of more than $900 million US a few years later, enabling him to avoid paying federal income taxes for perhaps 18 years.

At issue is how Trump was able to cancel hundreds of millions of dollars of debt as his casino empire in Atlantic City went broke in the early 1990s. Cancelled debt generally is treated as taxable income, meaning Trump would have owed the Internal Revenue Service significant money on debt that his creditors forgave.

The Times said it obtained documents from a quarter-century ago showing Trump essentially traded the debt relief for nearly worthless "partnership equity" to avoid any tax liability. In practice, the strategy was almost identical to a tax manoeuvre that was already outlawed, but differed in minor details. Trump's own lawyers advised him the IRS would likely find it improper if he were audited, the paper said, and Congress explicitly outlawed the manoeuvre in 2004.

Hillary Clinton, then a New York senator, was among the lawmakers who voted to close the loophole.

But then again she once had an email server, therefore she's Ernst Blofeld meets Idi Amin, right?

Garry Kasparov knows what a rigged election is

NY Times - no, America, your election is not rigged. Garry Kasparov knows what a real rigged election looks like, because he knows Pooty-poot's Russia. Let him explain reality to you Trumptard fools:

In power for 16 years now, Mr. Putin and his global propaganda machine aggressively promote the idea that democracy is a chaotic mess that only the hero Putin can save Russia from falling into. Social media is flooded by Kremlin-funded trolls ranting about the illegitimacy of the American election process and warning of the potential for violence. To have a major party nominee in America repeating this propaganda is beyond Mr. Putin’s wildest dreams. Mr. Trump even echoes Mr. Putin’s authoritarian rationales, presenting himself as the only one who can rescue America.

I know a few things about rigged elections. I know what it’s like to have the overwhelming power of the state used against me to make a mockery of the democratic process. I know what it means to have my opinion censored while every major media outlet is dedicated to vilifying me and my colleagues. I know what happens when a conspiracy of public and private interests forms to intimidate, harass, prosecute and even kill in order to preserve a monopoly on power.

I know these things well because I learned them the hard way during my years as a political opposition leader in Mr. Putin’s Russia. None of these things are happening to Donald Trump.

After I retired from professional chess in 2005, I helped form an opposition coalition, known as Other Russia, to protest Mr. Putin’s increasingly dictatorial regime. According to the Russian Constitution, Mr. Putin was unable to stand for a second re-election as president in 2008, and it wasn’t clear what would happen to a power structure that had become completely centered on one man. If Mr. Putin ignored the Constitution completely and simply stayed on openly as a dictator, he risked alienating the Group of 8 world leaders who had agreed to pretend he was a fellow democrat.

The Other Russia opposition coalition had live debates, policy papers, platforms — all the things that were absent from the official elections, where the only thing that mattered was who had the Kremlin’s blessing. Rather to my surprise, in 2007 I was the winner of the national primary to choose the coalition’s presidential candidate.

Once I had been selected in a real election that wasn’t official, it was time for me to participate in an official election that was completely fake.

In order to do this, I had to jump through the official and unofficial hoops that had been put in place to prevent unapproved candidates from making it onto a ballot. Two million signatures were needed from all over the country in just one month, a task made even more herculean by the sheer size of Russia. A nominating congress had to be held, an apparently simple chore that became impossible when no hotel would rent a suitable space to us. Even American-owned hotel chains mysteriously canceled our reservations.

While I traveled across the country to campaign, we would find venues suddenly closed for repairs, our flights canceled, our meetings shut down by the police. Nor did I quite manage to stay out of jail, spending five days in a Moscow cell for participating in an “unauthorized rally.”

Rigging an election isn’t only a matter of stuffing ballot boxes. It is not even that “the people who cast the votes don’t decide an election, the people who count the votes do,” as the apocryphal quote attributed to Joseph Stalin has it. By the time the voting begins, the game is already over. Anyone who opposes the regime — from peaceful street protesters to the wealthiest man in the country — is targeted. The Russian businessman Mikhail Khodorkovsky spent a decade in prison for daring to support political groups outside of Mr. Putin’s control.

The fraud that does occur on Election Day is more about showing loyalty and getting the numbers just right to keep up appearances. Busloads of official voters go from polling station to polling station in a tradition we even have a name for: a “carousel.” Sheaves of ballots are dumped into urns while polling officials stand in the way to block the view. Sometimes, the excessive zeal of apparatchiks produces returns of more than 100 percent, as happens regularly in Russian regions like Chechnya.

Must be nice to daydream about how horribly oppressed your white Trumptard ass is, while you sit on your couch collecting Social Security, polishing your guns, posting ignorant nonsense on the internet, and watching reality TV.

In reality, the only oppression that white-ass Trumptards face is the fact they have to share the equal vote with blacks, muslims, latinos, women and gays.

Trump Pooty-puppet position proven!

Mojo - a veteran spy says yes, Trump is Pooty-poot's peener puppet. And the FBI knows all about it:

Reid's missive set off a burst of speculation on Twitter and elsewhere. What was he referring to regarding the Republican presidential nominee? At the end of August, Reid had written to Comey and demanded an investigation of the "connections between the Russian government and Donald Trump's presidential campaign," and in that letter he indirectly referred to Carter Page, an American businessman cited by Trump as one of his foreign policy advisers, who had financial ties to Russia and had recently visited Moscow. Last month, Yahoo News reported that US intelligence officials were probing the links between Page and senior Russian officials. (Page has called accusations against him "garbage.") On Monday, NBC News reported that the FBI has mounted a preliminary inquiry into the foreign business ties of Paul Manafort, Trump's former campaign chief. But Reid's recent note hinted at more than the Page or Manafort affairs. And a former senior intelligence officer for a Western country who specialized in Russian counterintelligence tells Mother Jones that in recent months he provided the bureau with memos, based on his recent interactions with Russian sources, contending the Russian government has for years tried to co-opt and assist Trump—and that the FBI requested more information from him.

But no, you go ahead and keep saying that the real threat to democracy is some chick who ran an email server and who was already exonerated by the FBI despite their director having a thirty-year-old hard-on for prosecuting Clintons.


More pictures for those of you too ignorant to read:


I love this stuff:


Shocking email server news! You absolutely have to read this!

The Guardian - shocking news about a secret email server run by a US presidential candidate!

My god! This person needs to be locked up immediately! This is the greatest criminal enterprise ever! It's far worse than Watergate!

Slate - a group of hackers set out to get to the bottom of the Russia story, found out far more than they thought possible. My god! This presidential candidate has been operating this criminal organization for years! This is the motherlode!

Quick summary below the break:

Market comment

Market has been a little piddle-pantsy recently.

$VIX has been stuck in a long crawl upward all week. I'd short with, except the futures curve is still contangoed, and that makes me think there is still the possibility of a massive upward spike in $VIX in the next few days.

I guess I'm just more used to shorting $VIX when it falls out from backwardation. It's not doing what it's supposed to right now, and that confuses me. The 6 moderate white candles in a row looks weird all on its own.

Then again, I'm sure every market hobbyist with a bookmark feels the same way.

And why all the piddle-pantsing?

IWM has broken down off its plateau, and SPY is threatening to do the same:

A breakdown in SPY would maybe only mean a 5% drop, but for weenies who only look at the default 6 month chart, that'll be terrifying enough.

So I'm staying single-long right now, but am itching to switch to a more aggressive position if the market tanks.

Note btw that Transports still looks perfectly healthy. Is that a tell?

Sunday, October 30, 2016

Only a few days in, so let's pack in more Trump

Oh my...

Esquire - over a third of Trump supporters follow Nazis on Twitter.

Makes sense. Zerohedge loves him, and they've always been so full of anti-Semites that they even went so far as to post a strongly-worded letter.

Oh, and here's a graphic:

I wonder what the clown at Cracked, who wrote a bullshit story excusing the hicks in the countryside for supporting Trump, has to say about this?

Harry Reid stomps on James Comey's candy ass

CBS News - Harry Reid slams Comey, no fucks left to give. In full:

In his last few months in the Senate, Minority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nevada, isn’t pulling any punches -- especially after the recent revelations by FBI Director James Comey that more emails were found that could be related to the Clinton email probe.

The pugilistic Reid, who plans to retire after finishing out this term in Congress, penned a blistering letter to Comey Sunday, accusing the FBI chief of holding back “explosive” information about Donald Trump’s close Russian ties while possibly violating the Hatch Act by reviving the Clinton email investigation.

“Your actions in recent months have demonstrated a disturbing double standard for the treatment of sensitive information, with what appears to be a clear intent to aid one political party over another,” Reid wrote, adding that through Comey’s “partisan actions, you may have broken the law.”

The Nevada Democrat went on to insinuate Comey’s violation of the Hatch Act, which prohibits “activity directed towards the success or failure” of a candidate by executive branch employees.

“[Y]our highly selective approach to publicizing information, along with your timing, was intended for the success or failure of a partisan candidate or political group,” Reid wrote.

One example Reid posited of the “selective approach”: Comey’s methods in investigating Donald Trump and his campaign’s possible ties to the Russian government.

As an aside, that's the reason most Dems have been fuming at Comey's bullshit all weekend: apparently it's an open secret that Trump and his crew have been under investigation by the FBI, and yet the Dems have kept silent about it... since, after all, nobody is supposed to comment on an ongoing investigation, especially when it will interfere in an election.

Um, except Comey.

So now Reid is the Dems' designated suicide bomber. He's out of politics after this election, so he can murder Comey's entire extended family on Dancing With The Stars for all anyone cares.

“In my communications with you and other top officials in the national security community, it has become clear that you possess explosive information about close ties and coordination between Donald Trump, his top advisors, and the Russian government - a foreign interest openly hostile to the United States, which Trump praises at every opportunity,” he said. “I wrote to you months ago calling for this information to be released to the public...and yet, you continue to resist calls to inform the public of this critical information.”

Reid contrasted that with Comey’s approach to his public handling of emails from a computer used by top Clinton aide Huma Abedin and her estranged husband Anthony Weiner, which could be related to the Clinton email probe.

“Your rushed to take this step eleven days before a presidential election, despite the fact that for all you know, the information you possess could be entirely duplicative of the information you already examined which exonerated Secretary Clinton,” he said.

For the agency’s part, the FBI believed that because of the increased scrutiny over the Clinton probe, Comey’s options were limited in alerting Congress. Comey had previously pledged to inform the legislative body of any further developments in the case, even after the investigation was completed.

The FBI director has taken heat from his own department because of his unprecedented comments about an ongoing investigation, with his superior, Attorney General Loretta Lynch, recommending against his actions to notify Congress.

Reid closed his letter with a reminder that he had once “been a supporter” of Comey’s, even back when Republicans filibustered his nomination as FBI chief.

“I led the fight to get you confirmed because I believed you to be a principled public servant,” Reid concluded. “With the deepest regret, I now see that I was wrong.”

As an aside, there apparently was so much "leaking" and "unofficial sources" from the FBI this weekend that it's effectively destroyed their discipline.

So you can expect a few dozen angry 8:00 AM meetings, followed by a few hundred people suffering temporary deafness being asked to clean out their desks of personal items before the exit interview and anal search.

I dunno who the Director of the FBI reports to (Director of National Intelligence James Clapper? Attorney General Loretta Lynch?), but Comey's certainly going to get his own 8AM screamtastic meeting for initiating a massive discipline breakdown.

That's the problem with listening to mouthbreathers from the countryside: everyone else starts to think they can act like idiots too.


Regarding the big fat nothingburger that is a bunch of emails on someone's laptop, but which has inspired the loony right-wingers to spend a whole weekend providing soundbits on "wharrgarbl corruption! wharrgarbl Watergate!", now there's this:

Harry Reid - y'all just violated the Hatch act, bitch. (pdf)

Wherein Senator Reid beats James Comey like a mixed-race stepchild, then stomps a mudhole in Comey's ass and walks it dry.

PS the FBI is investigating Trump's connections to the Soviets.

One more thing you can do with a Ph.D. in Economics

I was starting to think that a Ph.D. in economics would be a waste of time.

Then I read this:

NY Times - once a Bucknell economics professor, now the commander of an Ethiopian rebel army. Here's the intro:

Berhanu Nega was once one of Bucknell University’s most popular professors. An Ethiopian exile with a Ph.D. from the New School for Social Research in Manhattan, he taught one of the economics department’s most sought-after electives, African Economic Development. When he wasn’t leading seminars or puttering around his comfortable home in a wooded neighborhood five minutes from the Bucknell campus in rural Lewisburg, Pa., Nega traveled abroad for academic conferences and lectured on human rights at the European Parliament in Brussels. “He was very much concerned with the relationship between democracy and development,” says John Rickard, an English professor who became one of his close friends. “He argued that you cannot have viable economic development without democratization, and vice versa.” A gregarious and active figure on campus, he rooted for the Philadelphia Eagles and the Cleveland Cavaliers, campaigned door-to-door for Barack Obama in 2008 and was known as one of the best squash players on the Bucknell faculty. He and his wife, an Ethiopian-born optometrist, raised two sons and sent them to top-ranked colleges, the University of Pennsylvania and Carnegie Mellon. On weekends he sometimes hosted dinners for other Bucknell professors and their families, regaling them with stories about Abyssinian culture and history over Ethiopian food he would prepare himself; he imported the spices from Addis Ababa and made the injera, a spongy sourdough bread made of teff flour, by hand.

Nega remained vague about his past. But students curious enough to Google him would discover that the man who stood before them, outlining development policies in sub-Saharan Africa, was in fact intimately involved in the long-running hostility between Ethiopia and neighboring Eritrea, a conflict that has dragged on for half a century. By the start of the millennium, its newest incarnation, a border war over a patch of seemingly worthless ground just 250 square miles in size, devolved into a tense standoff, with the two nations each massing along the border thousands of troops from both official and unofficial armies. One proxy army fighting on the Eritrean side, a group of disaffected Ethiopians called Ginbot 7, was a force that Nega helped create, founding the movement in 2008 with another Ethiopian exile, Andargachew Tsege, in Washington. The Ethiopian government, which had previously detained Nega as a political prisoner for two years in Addis Ababa, now sentenced him to death in absentia. Bucknell students who did learn about their teacher’s past were thrilled. “It made his classes exciting,” Rickard says.