Friday, April 15, 2016

Polemic's Pains with two clever paragraphs

Polemic's Pains - that shouldn't happen. On the market's breakout:
Whilst SPX had been oscillating around 2050 my attention had been drawn to more exciting things, namely Japan. My last post was looking for a turn in Nikkei and JPY and we have been amply rewarded with Nikkei now 7% higher on last weeks lows and USD/JPY slowly grinding back up through 109. But the lack of commentary associated with the rises has me feeling that we have a setup much like the lows in SPX in February that saw the moves higher start with accompanied reasoning of 'just stops’ which then became ‘this shouldn't be happening' to finally end with a 'this is mad, it'll happen one day' grumpy squaring or pushing of losses from the short term book to the long term book. Until we see the weight of opinion move from 105 USDJPY expectations and associated Nikkei dumps, we still have plenty of room for pain on the up side. Meanwhile this is the worst type of reversal for bears, one that just happened without intervention or big news to pin it on, leaving the theory unchanged but the price hurting. Theory 0 - Price 1
Yup, the sure-thing dominant narrative has to get screwed or else this isn't a market.

And I liked this bit:
The skill is to to be able to trade against your core long term view and not be clouded by a dogmatic long term view, even if it does turn out to be reality. In the end we will all be dead but that doesn’t mean we buy coffins and dutifully lie inside them waiting for the day to arrive. There is fun to be had in the meantime.
"Buy coffins and dutifully lie inside them waiting for the day to arrive" sounds like an accurate portrayal of all the goldbugs like Gary Wordsalad and their desire to stick in the gold stocks as the S&P 500 screamed 100% higher.

I don't even have to go to a goldbug TA's blog

I don't even have to go to a goldbug TA's blog to tell you:

that they're all pointing out GDX is just working off an overbought condition, and should settle down to either previous resistance at $21, or the SMA(50) and price cluster from $19-$21.

And for a bit of perspective, in case you're wondering why GDX should be strong with gold only futzing around $1200-$1250, remember that e.g. gold in Canadian dollars is around $1600, and the last time gold was at that CAD price miners' share prices were a lot higher.

Friday videos: Luscious Jackson

Some very very old Luscious Jackson:

Wednesday, April 13, 2016


WSJ Wonkblog - turns out fat is, was, and always will be good for you. Yeah no kidding.

I suggest getting ahead of the curve on this, and increasing your daily intake of vodka, smokes, candy and barbecued ribs.

Tuesday, April 12, 2016

STAIRWAY TO HEAVEN TRIAL: you've got to be fucking kidding me

Reuters - Page, Plant to face trial for ripping off "Stairway to Heaven". You've got to be fucking kidding me:

Led Zeppelin's lead singer Robert Plant and guitarist Jimmy Page must face a U.S. jury trial over whether they stole opening chords for their 1971 classic "Stairway to Heaven."

In a decision on Friday, U.S. District Judge Gary Klausner in Los Angeles said "Stairway" and the 1967 instrumental "Taurus" by the band Spirit were similar enough to let a jury decide whether Plant and Page were liable for copyright infringement.

A trial is scheduled for May 10.

The lawsuit was brought by Michael Skidmore, a trustee for the late Randy Wolfe, also known as Randy California, who was Spirit's guitarist and the composer of "Taurus."

Skidmore said Page may have been inspired to write "Stairway" for Led Zeppelin after hearing Spirit perform "Taurus" while the bands toured together in 1968 and 1969, but that Wolfe never got credit.

The defendants said Wolfe was a songwriter-for-hire who had no copyright claim, and that the chord progressions were so clichéd that they did not deserve copyright protection.

But the judge said a jury could find "substantial" similarity between the first two minutes of "Stairway" and "Taurus," which he called "arguably the most recognizable and important segments" of the songs.

"While it is true that a descending chromatic four-chord progression is a common convention that abounds in the music industry, the similarities here transcend this core structure," Klausner wrote. "What remains is a subjective assessment of the 'concept and feel' of two works ... a task no more suitable for a judge than for a jury."

The guitar line in question is most definitely clichéd, and you can't sue for an infringement of something unoriginal, not that the judge in this case has ever heard anything more than top-40 radio.

But that's not all:

They're not even the same fucking chords.

I mean, I love Randy California and all, but there's a reason he ended up doing odd gigs as a session guitarist for people like Peter Hammill while Page & Plant became Led Fucking Zeppelin, and probably banged your mom, and you'd probably be proud if they did.

And that reason is probably very similar to the reason why it took anyone 44 fucking years to sue.

I'm no Zeppelin fanboy, but I think this is fucking retarded.

Thankfully, Page & Plant should be able to pay an army of musicologists to explain the law to the judge just out of the money they made from Diddy, formerly P. Diddy, aka Puff Daddy, aka Sean Combs, aka Mr. Midnight, aka... which leads me to the greatest animated gif ever invented:


Business Insider - HSBC says buy gold!

Because something something Elliott Wave.



New Deal Demoncrat - the importance of the decline in corporate bond yields. He notes this should indicate that the industrial recession is over.

Then again, maybe corps have declined because they're the only bond still yielding a positive return, and fear of recession has driven people out of stocks and into bonds?

When you talk about moves in interest rates, it's probably a good idea to keep in mind the supply-demand situation.

FEAR AT ALL TIME HIGH - here's what you need to know

WSJ Moneybeat - a measure of fear that you've never heard of before just hit an all time high. Quote:

The Credit Suisse Fear Barometer, which measures the cost of bearish put options relative to bullish call options, rose to a fresh record of 44.7% on Friday. The gauge, which goes back to 1994, is calculated by selling a 3-month 10% upside call on the S&P 500 and using the proceeds to buy downside protection; the barometer’s level shows how far below the current level of the S&P, in percentage terms, an investor has to go to buy a put that makes the strategy’s total cost zero.

Translation: buying downside S&P puts is the newest fad.

So I guess people are looking at this chart:

and they're assuming it's a guaranteed drop from here - either another 10% panty-piddle, or a monumentous crash and burn.

I guess you could expect that level of doomery from some moron blogger or radical Nazi neocon, but it's a bit retarded coming from Wall Street.

Oh well, we'll see how it plays out. Certainly the June Brexit vote, and subsequent telegraphed July Greek debt crisis, and concurrent Republican convention, and ongoing fear of the economic destruction that would be wrought by an eventual Trump (or even Cruz or Ryan) presidency, are multiple reasons to short a market trading at 16x earnings.

In the meantime, gold and gold miners have outperformed the S&P 500, and they're a kiddie pool of liquidity compared to the underperforming DM equity markets.

I wonder whatever happened to Jeffrey Currie!

Monday, April 11, 2016


Well, it doesn't matter what your opinion of gold is, because the chart is the chart:

Friday's and this morning's candles are a breakout after a nice horizontal price consolidation. MACD got worked off and RSI trended calmly down to 50, and now price is moving upward.

I don't care what the reason is: I haven't looked at Business Insider or any goldbugger blogs for weeks now, and so I can merge with the zen of the market that says "you buy things that break out".