Friday, January 15, 2016

Friday dooooom, but also news, but mostly dooooom

Market opened at a lower low, and has been trying to fight back through the Thursday morning low. Doesn't look good, I guess more people still want to sell.

So here's the dooooom, er... nooooos:

Bespoke - some AAII sentiment data. Man, it looks bleak.

Tim Duy - we're not in a recession. Good luck pushing on that string dude.

Econbrowser - we're not in a recession. Good luck banging your head thru that brick wall dude.

Tim Duy - we're not in a recession, part II: the not-in-a-recessioning. Good luck pissing into that wind dude.

New Deal Demoncrat - has anyone mentioned we're not in a recession? Good luck turning back that herd of Norwegian lemmings driven towards a cliff by unscrupulous documentary filmmakers dude.

Dani Rodrik - public investment in infrastructure is how you get growth. Good luck convincing the Republitards dude.

WaPo - schools still beat children in some states: guess what race they are? That's not even a real challenge, is it?


FOR THE LOVE OF GOD AND ALL THAT IS HOLY, here's a one-hour documentary on early Van Der Graaf Generator:

Thursday, January 14, 2016

The problem with stupid Americans buying gold to hedge downside risk

The problem with stupid Americans buying gold to hedge downside risk:

Is that Americans are stupid, and when the downside risk that they were piddling themselves over is gone, they puke the gold back into the market.

And tangentially, sure you know the S&P 500 is at a bottom when the press starts quoting Albert Edwards and some clown at RBS says "sell everything, buy disused nuclear bunkers".

But an even better tell is when mainstream talking heads suggest you buy gold to diversify and hedge downside. When that happens, you know the S&P is at a bottom.

Thursday news

FT Alphaville - Albert Edwards is back. He's calling for the S&P to collapse to 550. So is that it? Was that the bottom?

WaPo - the US manufacturing recession. Yabut, cheaper oil and gas is a boon to the US economy, and the US shouldn't care about foreign markets because they've always been a massive net importer. So is that it? Was that the bottom?

Growth Economics - why we use log scales for growth. A special present for the blogger clown who illustrates growth using a linear scale chart.

WaPo - totes amazeballs! Self-explansh. OMG I dropped my iPh!

Wednesday, January 13, 2016

These all make perfect sense

Here's a few US stocks and their dividend yields:

Apple - 2.15%
Yum Brands - 2.70%
Union Pacific - 2.98%
Intel - 3.05%
McDonald's - 3.08%
Walmart, believe it or not - 3.08%
Lockheed Martin - 3.10%
General Electric - 3.23%
Proctologist & Gamble - 3.49%
Pfizer - 3.87%
IBM - 3.95%
Qualcomm - 4.19%
Ford - 4.78%

All of those are yielding more than the UST10Y right now.

Some of those companies' futures suck, sure, but others (GE, Apple, UNP, MCD, LMT) are essentially unstoppable world-conquering monopolies that aren't going to go away anytime soon.

Even Walmart, whose stated mission was always to make no money for anyone not named Walton, is now offering a 3% yield.

But hey, please continue selling.

Wellington Management, Fisher Investments, Seaward Management: your investment dollars at work

That silly RBS Andrew Roberts wharrgarbl has so entranced the investment community:

click to enlarge the shame
that wealth management retards across America are coming to this blog from Google to find out about it.

Again, as noted before, Wall Street Whitey is an ignorant fucktard and you put yourself in danger by assuming he has an ounce more intelligence than your weird uncle Billy Bob who collects silver rounds.

I think I'll go edit that post. Maybe add some porn, y'know, spice it up a bit.

Yet more about DOOOOOM

Boy, it's fun not to study. Studying gives me the wind.

BI - an actual economist responds to Andrew Roberts. And twitter-rapes him bigtime:

Well, there goes your 10 minutes of fame, Roberts you fucking twat. Seems Koukoulas actually was around in the 1990s, the last time the EMs and commodities crashed and we were about to be annihilated by killer robots.

Speaking of which, here's a chart from JP Morgan for you:

See that little infobox in the middle? Now, why would the S&P crash with a 2.3% yield?

RBS analyst Andrew Roberts identifies new threat to global economy: KILLER ROBOTS

First, a reminder:

Now, on with the news.

Benzinga - RBS analyst Andrew Roberts says sell entire investment world, buy disused nuclear bunkers. Quote:

For investors hoping that global markets can bounce back from their weak start to 2016, RBS analyst Andrew Roberts has some bad news. In a new report, Roberts says that that things will get much worse from here and urges investors to “sell (almost) everything.”

Here’s a breakdown of Roberts’ themes for the investment world in 2016.

- Bearish China
- Bearish commodities
- Downside in oil to $16/bbl
- Lackluster global growth/widening of global output gap
- Global currency wars
- Most emerging markets (other than India and Eastern Europe) will underperform
- Automation will continue its expansion and will ultimately replace up to half of all jobs in the developed world

That last point there is great. Basically he's saying we will all be destroyed by killer robots.

One wonders if any of the companies building killer robots will make a profit. Because it's going to take one hell of a boost to US investment to build enough killer robots. That should also mop up a lot of excess savings, in which case boom! we've spent our way out of the deflationary trap after all.

One also wonders if these killer robot manufacturers are also going to profit from the collapse in commodity prices (since killer robots are made out of stuff), the collapse in oil (since building killer robots requires energy), and the collapse of EM economies (which will mean less competition from killer robot manufacturers in Hainan).

One further wonders if the corporations buying these killer robots are going to profit from improved productivity.

One yet even further wonders if Andrew Roberts was even alive during the previous EM/commodity collapse and killer robots boom in the 90s, or if he ever got as far as 3rd year economics where we actually learn that EMs and commodities are countercyclical to DMs so of course they fucking go down.

Well, it's not as if anyone else has paid any attention to this clown....

The Guardian - RBS analyst Andrew Roberts says oh fuck we're all going to die.
The Telegraph - RBS analyst Andrew Roberts says brace for deflationary cataclysm.

Oh whatever. Here, go read a pdf of his doomporn if you want.

DECLASSIFIED!! US POWER GRID UNDER ATTACK - CIA, FBI impotent in the face of relentless onslaught

WaPo - US power grid under attack, FBI and CIA impotent in the face of relentless onslaught*. This terrifying twenty-eight year campaign of suicide attackers against our nation's vital infrastructure has been covered up until now - probably by executive order - but finally the chilling facts are out in the open!

You won't believe it when you see this map of the attacks that have occurred already!:

Read the article! And despair!

* - Relentless Onslaught would be an awesome name for a speed metal band btw.

There's the US dollar, then there's the US dollar

Nude Eel Demoncrat - here's a 5 year graph of the US$. Where he gives us this chart:

To which I reply:

It seems that the US dollar is still going up. It's just that the simple US$ index isn't capturing all the information required from an international macro perspective.

What's the difference between your simple USD calculation and the TWUDX, NDD?

Tuesday, January 12, 2016

How hoverboards will destroy, or revitalize, but probably destroy, public transportation

Cool, here's a hoverboard:

It goes 7-8mph, which (in my city) is faster than I can go from home to work on the bus when you factor in:

1) waiting for the bus
2) how slow the bus goes because there are too many stops per mile
3) waiting 10 minutes for a transfer
4) repeat #2
5) walking from the bus stop to the front door.

And if you don't like that, you can get a portable electric scooter:

It goes 14-15mph and carries 300 pounds (i.e., an American). This would take me from home to university faster than taking the express buses.

The hoverboard costs about 6 months of bus passes, and the scooter costs about a year of bus passes, depending on where you live.

And thus, if cities don't crack down and ban these things from both sidewalks and bike lanes and municipal off-road paths, pretty soon they're going to lose a hell of a lot of public transportation ridership. Pretty soon it'll wither away into an assisted transportation system for the handicapped only.

Unless, of course, they rationalize bus systems and improve service. Ha! I made a funny.

A gem from Wally

I used to cut my toenails every week. Now I just wear bigger shoes.

- Wally

Good job, Clive!

Good job, Clive!

Your shelf prospectus announcement has knocked about one third off your company's share price so far.

Hey, maybe you should get drunk and punch somebody. That might help.


Here's some reading:

Gavyn Davies - there's no global recession starting, you sissies. Though to be fair, the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now looks terrible, and there's talk of a US contraction looming. Boy, that'll make Janet pretty ashamed, to have to admit that it's a bad idea to contract when Y isn't even above Y-bar.

New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. Well, M1 M2 real estate loans tax withholding and Johnson Redbook are all still fine. He thinks we'll get a negative GDP print from inventory drawdown, though. But I'm sure Wall Street Whitey will interpret that constructively.

FT Alphaville - JP Morgan piddles selves at Chinese capital outflow broadening. Self-explanatory.

FT Alphaville - Peter Doyle on China. The star of Young Frankenstein gives us a good ol' bit of dooooomery. Pity he used to work at the IMF, otherwise I'd think he doesn't have his head up his ass about emerging market economies. I wonder what Mahathir Mohamad has to say about China nowadays?

Monday, January 11, 2016

Ha ha, your bridge sucks

CBC - Nipigon River Bridge fails. And just like that, you can no longer drive across Canada.
Ontario heralded the opening of the westbound portion of new Nipigon River Bridge – the province's first cable-stayed bridge – in late November.
Wow, it didn't even make it through its first winter. I wonder who designed it?

Canadian Consulting Engineer - first cable-stayed bridge in Ontario starts construction. Quote:
The engineering design for the bridge is by McCormick Rankin Corporation of Mississauga, in conjunction with Buckland & Taylor of Vancouver, who have designed cable-stayed bridges around the world.

Bot Construction has the $106-million contract to build it and Hatch Mott MacDonald is doing construction contract administration services. The bridge will be built in two stages.
So was it McCormick Rankin who fucked up? If B&T "have designed cable-stayed bridges around the world", then it certainly wasn't their fuckup, and if MMMRC had to carry them as a sub it must mean that MMMRC have no clue how to design a cable-stayed bridge on their own.

I really hate the "we have zero relevant internal expertise but we can be the project managers and bring in subs to do the real work" scam. Partly because I was nearly the only relevant internal expertise at my company for years. There's an arrogance to upper management in engineering companies, which is dangerous when combined with a lack of shame when things fuck up.

Or did Bot cut corners on something, and Hatch signed off on it? Hatch doesn't seem to me like a company that countenances contractor bullshit, though I could be wrong.

SPY chart, and the looming ultracollapse of DOOOOOM


So I guess if you're thinking of selling today, with RSI already at 30 and below the -2SD Bollinger band, you must think the S&P 500 is about to ultracollapse.

With S&P 500 forward earnings now at around 15.7x and the SPY ETF yielding 2.19%, which is a 9.7% improvement over last year.

Well, I guess if you're only thinking ultra-short term and have a tight stop, you won't be able to fuck this up too much. After all, the chart does look bad, and this market does seem to want to self-fulfill something.

But it's not a bet I'd take.

What happened in October 2009?

What's so special about October 2009?

Details below the fold:

Sunday, January 10, 2016

WHAT HAPPENED IN POP MUSIC IN 2015? here's what you need to know!

Ali Spagnola plays a four-minute medley of every 2015 top-10 hit, because reasons:

German outrage over refugee sexual assaults

In Europe presently, there's a lot of ink being spilled and electrons being destroyed over sexual assaults perpetrated by refugees at New Years' Eve.

Among the things to note:

1) It's nothing compared to the thousands of migrant women who've disappeared in the Balkans on the way to the west, or the thousands of others who've survived exploitation. But victimization of Auslanders doesn't seem to stir crowds into a march.

2) The story of sexual assault at New Years' would not have been a story if it were Germans doing the groping. Neither is it a story that the majority of refugees haven't been sexually assaulting anyone, and that every population has a criminal element.

3) Canada doesn't seem to have this problem with our immigrants, of which we take in hundreds of thousands every year. That's because we don't dump them in slums and forget about them like the Europeans: we integrate them.