Tuesday, December 20, 2016

Stupid me, I looked at Business Insider again today

And because of that, I now miss another half hour of critical studying time.

BI - Harry Dent blah blah. Oh what a fucking twat. But we can learn something from this:

Harry Dent is bullish.

Dent, an economist

He's not an economist. He's an MBA. He doesn't know the slightest thing about economics. To get an MBA, he took at most intro & intermediate micro & macro, where let me tell you nobody learns a damn thing about economics beyond Victorian-era theory.

and one of the biggest doubters of the stock market's rise since the end of the recession, said he no longer believes a crash is imminent for the market after persistently calling for a massive drop over the past seven years.

What changed the mind of the man who said that the market would be "cut in half" in 2011, called for a "year and a half" long crash in 2013, and said the Dow could fall 17,000 points as recently as December 10?

Donald Trump getting elected.

Seriously. All the doom & gloomers who were telling you through the S&P's 200% rise to buy gold, stock up on guns and get yerself a nice decommissioned nuclear bunker have all changed their tune. And it's only because there'll no longer be a Negro Democrat in the White House. That's all it is.

"All of my research pointed to signs that the end was near," wrote Dent in a blog post last week. "The Dow was set to shed thousands of points in short order. How much has changed since November 8…"

When Trump got elected.

This doesn't mean that Dent has gotten any less bearish on the long-term outlook for the US economy. He wrote that the aging demographics in the US will keep economic growth stagnant going forward.

"There will be near-zero workforce growth after several years of mildly negative growth" wrote Dent.

That's funny cos Bill McBride, who holds a real MBA, says that the prime working age group in the US is growing again, has done for the past 2 years now, and this will be an economic tailwind for the US.

Did Harry Dent only stumble across this Bill McBride's blog in the past month? Or is he simply a fucking clown with a newsletter who tells old Republican cranks whatever they want to hear?

"No matter how irrational this market is, I admit I’ve gotten the timing wrong," said Dent.

Yes, Harry. It's all the market's fault, the market is irrational. It's not as if it's the job of an "economist" and "forecaster" to forecast the irrationality of the markets.

Fucking idiot.

1 comment:

  1. This is why economics suffers in public opinion.

    Take a look at hard sciences and see how the scientists react to having their predictions proven incorrect.

    There is a lot of talk about what science can offer, it's limits, and what it is but if nothing else it's a method one uses to best predict what is going to happen in the future.

    If you start making arguments about why your wrong in the face of contrary evidence your not doing science.