Thursday, December 8, 2016

NDD: it's beginning to look a lot like inflation

New Deal Demoncrat - it's beginning to look a lot like inflation. Which actually isn't good, as he notes at the end:

Typically over the last 60 years, the Fed has chased inflation at this stage, and causes a yield curve inversion, as "real" wages stall and decline, heralding a recession.

Which then throws everyone out of work. And then you're left with a Republican government which responds by cutting spending, sending the US deeper into recession.

Unless, of course, they're only against deficit spending when Democrats are in charge. We'll have to see.

And by the way: can anyone with smarts explain if the CPI Shelter component is just a function of the mortgage rate? Because the big stink in the 70s (that manufactured a pile of inflation that wasn't there) was that owner-equivalent rent started to be calculated based on present value of a mortgage with interest.

I suspect CPI Shelter is a useless piece of data.

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