Wednesday, November 9, 2016

post-Trump opinion


So Trump won, that's funny.

There was actually someone knowledgeable on CNBC this morning, who I guess was their election coverage head statistician or something, who noted that Trump won by taking the Bernie primary states: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan I guess and New Hampshire sort of.

So I guess that makes sense: I'm the one who's been saying that the working class has been fucked over since Reagan, and in a way maybe it's nice for them to finally vote angry and fuck stuff up.  Hope it works out for them, but I don't think it will.

This election won't get the attention of the worldwide kleptocracy, because Brexit didn't get their attention either.

My big question right now is, what's Trump actually going to do? Sure, if he's Mister Consummate Dealmaker, and if he's really a party-unaffiliated outsider unconstrained by beltway loyalties, and given he won without owing anyone in the Republican party anything, then yeah, he could push through a whole shit-ton of real reforms to benefit the working class who voted for him, and actually make 'Merica yooooge again.

He could throw his weight around like a loose cannon, telling the WTO to go fuck themselves and re-negotiating the US trade position to remake the US as the global economic superpower that tells everyone else what to do. The EU, Mexico, Japan and everyone else would just have to eat what he serves 'em if they want any access to the US market at all. (This isn't radical: it's pretty standard & old-fashioned hegemonic trade policy, and normal to pursue if you are an unopposable superpower that cares more about its economy than its transnational corporations.)

And he could do all this by telling Republicans and Democrats that they're both his bitch, after all he won, and if Ryan & Paul don't work with him then he damn well has what it takes to pick off 30 Republican congressmen and 5 Republican senators and add them to a cross-aisle deal with the Democrats for whatever he wants. You gotta admit he proved during the campaign that he only deals with people who tell him what he wants to hear.

So he can make deals with both sides, and he can do it his way: sure, I'll nominate your nutcase Supreme Court Justice, but in return you lift the debt ceiling forever and let me pass a trillion dollar infrastructure program. I've been in the same room watching a deal-making real estate mogul in action, and that's how deals get done. Maybe he ends up doing that.

Maybe.

Then again, maybe he's a dumb-ass who's in over his head, and the Republicans will use him to gut financial regulation, repeal all taxes, and pretty much flush the country down the toilet like they want to do.

In any case, it was disconcerting to see US futures puke limit-down overnight, given how leveraged-long I was, ha ha.

But as it turns out, now everything's up nicely: SPX is up 1%, $VIX has really frickin' cratered and I wish Google would let me post a chart for you because it's awe-inspiring, $VIX futures near months are unbackwardated but at ~15 and 16 which means there's still a lot of money possibly to make on XIV, and there are even some nice deals out there (does anyone at all really believe Magna is threatened by a Trump presidency?)

And even the goldbugs got handed their ass, buying gold & the miners at the open. I'm sorry, Cletus, but that big red candle that's printing on the chart right now, which constitutes a dismal failure at the SMA(50), does not look good for you.

So, we'll see. In any case, next time you hear Democrats whining about how the Supreme Court is going to be 6-3 conservative in 4 years' time, 'splain to them that the working class was a gimme but they decided to serve Wall Street for 16 years instead.

Anyway, with some of my market winnings I'm going to go buy that special post-election deal at Bespoke Investment Group, then go back to studying for midterms.


1 comment:

  1. On Dilbert.com Scott Adams compares the election to a movie. Which one? The usual suspects. At the end of the movie the main character, Roger "Verbal" Kint (Kevin Spacey), walks away and everything which was told turns out to have been one big improvised story.

    Like yesterday when Trump seemed a very different person holding a victory speech. Almost like Roger losing his limp.

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