Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Market comment

Market has been a little piddle-pantsy recently.

$VIX has been stuck in a long crawl upward all week. I'd short with HVI.to, except the futures curve is still contangoed, and that makes me think there is still the possibility of a massive upward spike in $VIX in the next few days.

I guess I'm just more used to shorting $VIX when it falls out from backwardation. It's not doing what it's supposed to right now, and that confuses me. The 6 moderate white candles in a row looks weird all on its own.

Then again, I'm sure every market hobbyist with a Stockcharts.com bookmark feels the same way.

And why all the piddle-pantsing?

IWM has broken down off its plateau, and SPY is threatening to do the same:

A breakdown in SPY would maybe only mean a 5% drop, but for weenies who only look at the default 6 month chart, that'll be terrifying enough.

So I'm staying single-long right now, but am itching to switch to a more aggressive position if the market tanks.

Note btw that Transports still looks perfectly healthy. Is that a tell?

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