Friday, October 7, 2016

Some weekend news

Here's some reading for you on a Friday afternoon.

New Deal Demoncrat - indian summer. Data is still positive. Though I still wouldn't be surprised to see the SPY fall 10% in the next little while, although then again I'm sure everyone else is saying that right now too. Frankly, the market is populated with panty-piddlers.

Tim Duy - hard to say that November is really "live". He sees through all the crap so you don't have to!:
Of course she wants November to be "live." She wanted to hike rates at the last meeting. And I suspect she believes that unless the hawks can push up rate hike expectations to something closer to 50% (from the current 13% or so), they have no chance of pushing through a rate hike. Not that I think they have much of a chance even then. Seems that his amounts to trying to manipulate market expectations to obtain an advantage at the FOMC meeting. I sense this is what hawks have attempted more than once this year. In my opinion, this too is not a good communications strategy.
Basically, the November talk boils down to silly infighting, and you can ignore it from now on. And it's also counterproductive to Fed expectations management, since the more the hawks talk about it, the more they destroy their own credibility. Especially, I might add, when their dots on the dot plot have continuously proven them to be clueless idiots with utterly no idea what's coming even three months from now.

NY Times - why are politicians so obsessed with manufacturing? Precisely:
Manufacturing retains its powerful hold on the American imagination for good reason. In the years after World War II, factory work created a broadly shared prosperity that helped make the American middle class. People without college degrees could buy a home, raise a family, buy a station wagon, take some nice vacations. It makes perfect sense that voters would want to return to those times.

From an economic perspective, however, there can be no revival of American manufacturing, because there has been no collapse. Because of automation, there are far fewer jobs in factories. But the value of stuff made in America reached a record high in the first quarter of 2016, even after adjusting for inflation. The present moment, in other words, is the most productive in the nation’s history.
The "let's bring back manufacturing!" refrain is just an illusion spun by the kleptocrats who want to turn your attention away from the real problem: worker's wages have stagnated, not because of Mexican immigrants or Chinese competition, but because politicians have spent the past 35 years skewing the tax and legal system against workers while waging constant attack on unions, minimum wages, overtime pay, or even defined-benefit pensions.

Basically, manufacturing workers are suffering because of 35 years of right-wing class war. Anyone who tells you otherwise is a liar.

But no, you go ahead and keep reading that Gary Wordsalad twit who calls the nonexistent "manufacturing collapse" a sign of the nation's impending apocalypse - and then suggests you buy AMAT which has moved its operations to China.

Polemic's Pains - noise signal in the Pound. There's nothing like a good hit of sarcasm to get the blood flowing:
Oh look, the Pound is at levels not seen since the last time and the FTSE is at a number.
That outdoes anything I've ever written. +1 internets!

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