Saturday, October 15, 2016
Gutsy Trump election prediction: under 30% of the popular vote
I've been watching interviews of Trump supporters at rallies, and I've come to the conclusion that, despite Trump polling at 44% nationally as of yesterday, even if he doesn't dig his hole even deeper, he is still going to poll under 30% come election time.
I worked at a market research company for years when I was a kid, calling people to do surveys. Yes, the only political work I ever did was a very short Harris poll a few times, most of it was market research; and most of the time I only called Canada, though we did for a while have one big contract calling the USA (for a Canadian cigarette company, I think). But the principle of what I write below still holds.
There is a certain type of person who usually refuses to respond to surveys. They're sometimes just reticent, sometimes generally just pissed off at calls from strangers, sometimes just refuse as a matter of principle and that's okay. Some of those people will refuse to answer a specifically political poll, because they like to keep their political beliefs personal, and that's also okay.
However, a significant nonzero part of the refusing population are refusing simply because they're ignorant fucking fruitcakes.
Those fucking fruitcakes would refuse in 2000 when called for a Gore/Bush poll. They refused in 2008 for the Obama/McCain poll. Simply, that's what you do if you're a fucking fruitcake who hates politics: you refuse, mumble something incoherent or plain ignorant, and hang up the phone. Trust me, I experienced this.
In 2016, however, given what I've seen of Trump rallies, it seems to have become fashionable for fucking fruitcakes who hate politics to have a political opinion and espouse it for the whole world to see.
Those people used to self-select themselves out of polls, but now they're self-selecting themselves into polls.
And guess what? The fruitcake population doesn't vote. Some are nonvoting felons, some will be too drunk or lazy that day to go out, some are even ignorant of how to vote in the first place. You're seeing some of those people in the press today, blathering on about how they want to go to a polling station carrying guns to intimidate people for Trump, not understanding that this is the best way to get yourself shot ten times in the fucking face by an armoured fucking SWAT team. They have never been to a polling station.
Basically, nonvoters have self-selected themselves into the pool of counted Trump voters. So when the poll says "44% for Trump", you can count a certain number of those voters out come election day.
The people who do vote are little old ladies. And, I guess, business owners, people who like to exercise their civic duty, and maybe a few hardcore cranks.
They won't be voting Trump to the tune of 44%.