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Friday, September 2, 2016

Jobs report: if you traded on that, you're a moron


Bonddad - another month of late expansion deceleration. Quote:

This was a decent report which is positive in most absolute terms, but relatively continues to show late expansion deceleration. Little outside of the headline jobs number was outright positive. Most of the internals were unchanged or declined. Of particular note is that the measures of peripheral underemployment -- part time for economic reasons and those outside of the labor force who want a job now -- have barely made any progress this year. Wage gains are among the best of this cycle, but that is an extremely low bar.

So, no cause for immediate concern, but no reason to think there will be much further improvement either.

As an aside, I think that the late-cycle deceleration only happens when asset markets (housing and stocks) continue to climb while jobs and personal income go downhill. Sentiment and assets are presently not frothy enough.


Calculated Risk - August employment report. Quote:

The unemployment rate was unchanged in August at 4.9%.

This was below expectations of 175,000 jobs. Still a decent report.

But better yet is too look at his graphs, where you'll see what an insignificant report this was.

I'm sure some White-ass dumbshit and his pet tradebot traded this report thinking gold would go up and the Fed would be scared away from a rate hike. That White-ass dumbshit and his pet tradebot are morons, and you can just ignore them from now on.

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