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Monday, July 25, 2016

Moderating Bill McBride's optimism a bit


Calculated Risk - the future's still so bright. Yeah, the economy still looks okay and all. However, I've got a problem with this:

And a couple of graphs from The Projected Improvement in Life Expectancy

Instead of look at life expectancy, here is a graph of survivors out of 100,000 born alive, by age for three groups: those born in 1900-1902, born in 1949-1951 (baby boomers), and born in 2010.

SurvivorsThere was a dramatic change between those born in 1900 (blue) and those born mid-century (orange). The risk of infant and early childhood deaths dropped sharply, and the risk of death in the prime working years also declined significantly.

The CDC is projecting further improvement for childhood and prime working age for those born in 2010, but they are also projecting that people will live longer.

The problem I have with people living longer is this:

It's those little 80- and 90-year old ladies with senile dementia who are voting for the paranoid racewar fantasies and economic incompetence of the Republican Party.

And so with every increase in life expectancy, there's an accompanying increase in the relative share of registered voters with incurable mental illness whose biggest concerns are the low interest rate on their guaranteed term deposits and the scary coloured people down the street with their smelly food.

That doesn't bode well for the long run.

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