New Deal Demoncrat - road to the next recession. He explains what to monitor for a recession signal. Quote:
So a reasonably likely road map to the next recession looks like this:Or you could just read Gary Wordsalad's blog. I mean, he called the massive repudiation of debt and the coming apart at the seams of a dishonest system back in June 2013, didn't he? I guess that explains why he quit advertising his newsletter's performance around that time. Can't have anything to do with him failing to make a fucking penny during a 2-year S&P bull market.
1. Interest rates continue to fail to make new lows.
2. House prices and stock prices stop meaningfully appreciating.
3. Inflation picks up to 2% or more as energy prices begin to go up again.
4. Maybe - the Fed raises rates in response to increased CPI readings, perhaps enough to invert the yield curve.
5. Corporate lending stalls, housing turns down, and consumer spending begins to turn down, resulting in a recession.