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Thursday, May 26, 2016

New home sales


Astoundingly, I got 33/35 on my actuarial test. I say astoundingly, because I spent 40 minutes on one single question and still didn't get the right answer. I guess the teacher is just extremely generous with marks.

Now we're moving on to bond and equity valuation, which is more fun. Strange that I'm learning more economics in actuarial math than I am in economics, eh?

Anyway, catching up on some news:

Calculated Risk - new home sales increase sharply. If there's new sudden strength in US equities, it certainly ain't because of stupid fucking semiconductors; housing is a much larger share of US GDP. It's also a large chunk of US investment, and investment is the part of GDP that really drags the whole rest of the economy around.

So if housing's going to print a new post-crash high, that means the S&P has a long way up to go yet, and there's a year and a half of equity selling that's now revealed to be wrong-footed.

No reason to sell US equities til you hear Kyle Fucking Bass is 200% long S&P 500.


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