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Tuesday, May 24, 2016

FRB ATLANTA: "OUR NOWCAST SUCKS BIG WOBBLY DONKEY DICK"


FRB Atlanta - on how their very own nowcast sucks big wobbly donkey dick. I think they know what's causing it:
An optimistic interpretation is that the string of one-sided misses are the result of bad luck—an atypical sequence of shocks that neither GDPNow nor private forecasters could account for. A more troubling interpretation is that there have been structural changes in the economy that neither GDPNow nor the consensus of private forecasters have identified.
Hey: you guys already know how to aggregate GDP numbers for the quarterly GDP reading, don't you? Well, why not just do that same thing for your nowcast? I mean, if you're comparing one made-up number to another, it helps if both are the same methodology, right?

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