Tuesday, March 29, 2016

Tim Duy on that whole oil price doom thing

Tim Duy - on the oil drop and inflation expectations. Wow. Some U. Oregon economist just caught Maurice Obstfeld with his pants down.

First, he points out that Obstfeld's inflation expectations vs oil price chart could easily get swapped out for an inflation expectations versus dollar chart. Then, he points out the drop in oil prices is still having a positive effect on vehicle miles travelled.

Then he points out that the correlation between 5Y/5Y and oil shows no underlying relationship.

Great post, read it if you were worried about that whole "oh why oh why hasn't the oil price drop resulted in a GDP boost" thing.

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