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Sunday, March 13, 2016

Sunday reading


New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. Summary:
Once again the bifurcation of decent consumer economy, poor industrial economy (at least that portion tied to commodity extraction and exports) that began one year ago, is changing -- and generally for the better, as commodity production and transportation look like they have turned positive. The recent weakness in real money supply appears to have ended. The dollar is becoming less of a drag. The only new negative is the continued deterioration in tax withholding.
Which I guess you could have guessed if you assumed this winter's weakness was the same as last year's weakness.


Calculated Risk - Goldman FOMC preview. Quotes:
Although policymakers continue to express some caution about the outlook, financial conditions have eased considerably over the last month, and incoming data have held up reasonably well.
And you didn't see this coming, Jan?
We do not think the committee is ready to raise rates next week, but expect the statement to say that risks are “nearly balanced”. Guidance from the meeting in general should indicate that another rate hike is likely before too long—we expect an increase at the June 14-15 FOMC meeting, but action at the April 26-27 meeting is not inconceivable.
Have inflationary pressures eased, Jan? Or are they as strong as, or stronger than, they were back when the Fed brought in the first rate increase? Y'know, metals prices, oil prices, wages, unemployment and the US dollar? Think things are less inflationary now? Cos the Fed's reason for raising rates is to hold down inflation.

Sorry, bud; I think the intelligent bet is for a rate raise this week. I eagerly await my Goldman Sachs job offer when I'm proven right.


Washington Post - no, Social Security isn't going broke. We know the press gives right-wing wackaloons a free pass, because reasons. What I want to know is why the press gives Dana Bash a free pass for reporting patently false information.


And Gary Wordsalad still insists the market remains in a downward trend. Well, you can't teach a doom merchant new tricks.

1 comment:

  1. Can you get us something on why Donald Trump resembles nothing so much as a poor man's Hitler?

    ReplyDelete